Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFTNT trades at 53.5x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 65.0x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 5.2. DCF fair value of $67 implies 15% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedFortinet demonstrates robust capital allocation efficiency with an ROIC-WACC spread of 22.8%, indicating significant value creation potential relative to the cost of equity. The DuPont decomposition reveals that this return is driven primarily by a high net margin of 27.3% and substantial leverage (Equity Multiplier of 8.40x), rather than asset turnover, which sits at 0.65x. Financial integrity metrics are mixed; while the Altman Z-Score of 5.5 suggests low bankruptcy risk and the Beneish M-Score of -2.65 points to minimal earnings manipulation concerns, a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates moderate financial strength with room for improvement in fundamental quality trends.
Valuation analysis presents a divergence between relative multiples and intrinsic value models. Trading at a current P/E of 34.1x against a sector average of 42.2x, the stock appears relatively cheap on a multiple basis compared to peers. However, the DCF model implies a fair value of $65, suggesting a -20.4% downside from current levels based on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 13.3%. This discrepancy suggests the market may be pricing in higher growth expectations than those reflected in the discounted cash flow calculation or that recent performance has compressed multiples despite strong revenue expansion of 14.2% year-over-year.
Risk-adjusted return metrics highlight significant underperformance relative to factor benchmarks over the trailing period. The Fama-French alpha stands at -38.78% annually, accompanied by a negative Value Factor (-0.352) and Profitability Factor (-0.170), indicating that recent returns have lagged expectations for growth and high-profitability stocks respectively. Compounding these fundamental signals is substantial insider activity, with $42.2 million in net selling recorded over the last 90 days. These data points collectively suggest a complex risk-reward profile where strong underlying profitability metrics coexist with negative factor performance and notable internal distribution of shares.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 14% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.9% | 10.9% | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $80 | $61 | $50 |
| 3% | $90 | $67 | $53 |
| 4% | $105 | $75 | $58 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $148.86.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $67 (-14.7%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 12% below its 5-year average P/E of 35.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedFortinet, Inc. is currently trading at $130.00 within the technology sector, presenting a snapshot of its market positioning relative to moving average envelopes. At this specific price point, the asset sits in a zone that warrants observation regarding its distance from key statistical mean lines which often act as dynamic support or resistance thresholds. When current pricing aligns closely with these central tendencies, it frequently suggests a state of equilibrium where momentum is neutralized, potentially indicating reduced immediate volatility but also limited directional catalysts until price action diverges significantly again. The relationship between the $130.00 level and surrounding moving averages offers insight into potential mean-reversion dynamics without confirming any specific future trajectory. If this price point represents a retest of an established average after a prior deviation, technical theory posits that statistical probability might favor a return toward the center of the envelope rather than an extension of the recent trend. Conversely, if the current level sits at the extreme edge of such a band, it could signal stretched valuations relative to historical moving averages, theoretically increasing the likelihood of a corrective pullback as prices seek fairer alignment with their longer-term statistical norms. Ultimately, this configuration highlights how price interacts with calculated benchmarks to define risk and reward zones inherent in technical analysis. The absence of clear breakout signals or definitive reversal patterns at $130.00 leaves the market open to interpretation based on subsequent volume profiles and broader sector movements. Traders monitoring these metrics may view the
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like HACK or MOAT, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell FTNT shares regardless of Fortinet, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $9.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to FTNT through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Fortinet, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Broadcom Inc (AVGO) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with FTNT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 33 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
FTNT Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 FTNT shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.9% of the Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) and 2.4% of the MOAT (MOAT). Across 33 tracked ETFs, approximately 111M shares (15.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest FTNT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 33 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
FTNT Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Fortinet, Inc. over the past year sits near $79.98 (34% of 252-day volume). The current price of $148.86 trades 86.1% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (34% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
FTNT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Fortinet, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Fortinet, Inc. converts 91% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 23.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 9,440 | $117.69 | $1.1M |
| 2026-05-11 | 3,104 | $114.07 | $354,073.28 |
| 2026-05-08 | 198 | $107.97 | $21,378.06 |
| 2026-05-07 | 1,616 | $89.95 | $145,359.2 |
| 2026-05-04 | 1,748 | $86.29 | $150,834.92 |
| 2026-05-01 | 31 | $84.31 | $2,613.61 |
| 2026-04-24 | 36 | $82.76 | $2,979.36 |
| 2026-04-22 | 523 | $85.26 | $44,590.98 |
| 2026-04-20 | 300 | $81.84 | $24,552 |
| 2026-04-17 | 2 | $82.40 | $164.8 |
| 2026-04-15 | 36 | $78.70 | $2,833.2 |
| 2026-04-14 | 25,037 | $78.74 | $2.0M |
| 2026-04-13 | 20,556 | $76.70 | $1.6M |
| 2026-04-10 | 1 | $80.66 | $80.66 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2,589 | $83.72 | $216,751.08 |
| 2026-04-06 | 448 | $82.53 | $36,973.44 |
| 2026-04-01 | 152 | $81.72 | $12,421.44 |
| 2026-03-31 | 22,476 | $79.05 | $1.8M |
| 2026-03-30 | 1 | $78.20 | $78.2 |
| 2026-03-25 | 74 | $79.34 | $5,871.16 |
| 2026-03-23 | 45,999 | $81.40 | $3.7M |
| 2026-03-18 | 45,115 | $83.16 | $3.8M |
| 2026-03-17 | 6,216 | $84.49 | $525,189.84 |
| 2026-03-16 | 8,589 | $83.44 | $716,666.16 |
| 2026-03-10 | 1,072 | $83.81 | $89,844.32 |
| 2026-03-09 | 498 | $83.67 | $41,667.66 |
| 2026-03-06 | 22 | $84.42 | $1,857.24 |
| 2026-03-05 | 14 | $82.79 | $1,159.06 |
| 2026-03-04 | 284 | $81.10 | $23,032.4 |
| 2026-03-02 | 36 | $79.03 | $2,845.08 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| PANW | 0.585 | 0.679 | Moderate |
| CRWD | 0.577 | 0.656 | Moderate |
| ZS | 0.500 | 0.513 | Moderate |
| RDWR | 0.497 | 0.549 | Moderate |
| ADSK | 0.491 | 0.572 | Moderate |
| CRM | 0.485 | 0.546 | Moderate |
| NOW | 0.485 | 0.498 | Moderate |
| TENB | 0.473 | 0.567 | Moderate |
| ATEN | 0.464 | 0.404 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare FTNT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.