Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicGOOGL trades at 29.0x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 32.1x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 15.3. DCF fair value of $84 implies 74% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedAlphabet Inc. demonstrates robust fundamental quality, as evidenced by a significant positive ROIC-WACC spread of 14.2%, indicating that the company generates returns well above its cost of capital. The DuPont analysis further breaks down this strength into high net margins (32.8%) and moderate asset turnover (0.68x), with leverage contributing through an equity multiplier of 1.43x. This combination suggests efficient operations and effective use of financial leverage, supported by a strong Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and Altman Z-Score of 14.9, both indicative of solid financial health and low bankruptcy risk.
From a valuation standpoint, Alphabet trades at a current P/E ratio of 27.4x compared to the sector average of 27.3x and its own five-year historical average of 15.1x, representing an 88% premium over its longer-term metrics. A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis implies fair value at $86 per share, indicating a significant downside potential from current levels given the stock's price is about 70% above this estimate. The market appears to be pricing in high growth expectations with an implied free cash flow (FCF) growth rate of 22.1%, which contrasts sharply with historical performance and may pose challenges for future valuation if such rapid expansion cannot be sustained.
Insider activity shows recent net selling, adding a layer of complexity to the risk-reward profile despite positive Fama-French alpha indicating outperformance relative to market conditions over time. The company’s value tilt (negative HML factor) suggests it is perceived as growth-oriented rather than undervalued, aligning with its premium P/E ratio and high implied future growth rates.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 15% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.7% | 11.7% | 13.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $98 | $77 | $63 |
| 3% | $110 | $84 | $67 |
| 4% | $125 | $92 | $72 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $361.85.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $84 (-73.9%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 82% above its 5-year average P/E of 16.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAlphabet Inc. currently trades at $387.66 within the Communication Services sector, presenting a snapshot where price action must be weighed against underlying risk dynamics rather than viewed in isolation. While the specific level suggests a significant valuation relative to historical norms for many peers, this positioning inherently exposes the asset to heightened volatility if market sentiment shifts or if fundamental expectations regarding growth slow down. The absence of immediate drawdown data prevents a definitive assessment of recent downside resilience, yet the premium nature of such valuations often implies that any negative deviation in earnings guidance or macroeconomic conditions could trigger accelerated corrections, making momentum appear potentially fragile rather than structurally supported. The interplay between current pricing and sector-wide trends indicates that holding this position requires careful monitoring of volatility metrics to distinguish whether upward movement is driven by genuine structural improvements or speculative inflows. Without corroborating data on recent pullbacks or volume spikes during dips, it remains unclear if the asset has established a stable floor against adverse price action. Consequently, the technical picture suggests a scenario where potential gains might be accompanied by elevated uncertainty, requiring stakeholders to assess their tolerance for sharp fluctuations before engaging with such a high-valuation equity in a shifting market environment.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | $0.2100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-08 | $0.2100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-08 | $0.2100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-09 | $0.2100 | +5.0% |
| 2025-03-10 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-09 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-09 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-10 | $0.2000 | — |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
SEC Filings & Material Events
Significant news
Full financial overview
Significant news
Significant news
Latest earnings
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Smart Money Flow
Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares Change | % Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | +43,200 | +27.1% | Increased |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | -65,138 | -10.2% | Decreased |
| Druckenmiller (Duquesne) | 2026-Q1 | -385,000 | -100.0% | Exited |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | +246,001 | +83.0% | Increased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | -63,000 | -25.0% | Decreased |
| Berkshire Hathaway | 2026-Q1 | +23,436,956 | +131.3% | Increased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | +439,500 | +3.0% | Increased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | +406,848 | +25.6% | Increased |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | -1,300,400 | -68.8% | Decreased |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | +3,875,934 | +144.4% | Increased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | +2,137,500 | +17.1% | Increased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | -2,310,277 | -88.6% | Decreased |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VOX or XLC, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell GOOGL shares regardless of Alphabet Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $246.3B of passive capital is structurally linked to GOOGL through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Alphabet Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with GOOGL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 43 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
GOOGL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 GOOGL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 16.2% of the VOX (VOX) and 10.0% of the State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLC). Across 33 tracked ETFs, approximately 685M shares (11.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest GOOGL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 33 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
GOOGL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Alphabet Inc. over the past year sits near $316.00 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $361.85 trades 14.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
GOOGL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Alphabet Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Alphabet Inc. converts 41% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 59% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 13.9% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 4,400 | $402.62 | $1.8M |
| 2026-05-13 | 137 | $387.35 | $53,066.95 |
| 2026-05-11 | 394,588 | $400.80 | $158.2M |
| 2026-05-08 | 24,933 | $397.99 | $9.9M |
| 2026-05-07 | 818 | $398.04 | $325,596.72 |
| 2026-05-05 | 200 | $383.25 | $76,650 |
| 2026-05-04 | 10,134 | $385.69 | $3.9M |
| 2026-05-01 | 9,388 | $384.80 | $3.6M |
| 2026-04-30 | 9,679 | $349.94 | $3.4M |
| 2026-04-28 | 500 | $350.34 | $175,170 |
| 2026-04-27 | 2,183 | $344.40 | $751,825.2 |
| 2026-04-24 | 10,652 | $338.89 | $3.6M |
| 2026-04-23 | 1 | $339.32 | $339.32 |
| 2026-04-22 | 5,684 | $332.29 | $1.9M |
| 2026-04-21 | 100 | $337.42 | $33,742 |
| 2026-04-20 | 14,757 | $341.68 | $5.0M |
| 2026-04-17 | 44,656 | $336.02 | $15.0M |
| 2026-04-16 | 1 | $337.12 | $337.12 |
| 2026-04-14 | 185 | $321.31 | $59,442.35 |
| 2026-04-13 | 11,165 | $317.24 | $3.5M |
| 2026-04-10 | 364 | $318.49 | $115,930.36 |
| 2026-04-09 | 21,900 | $317.32 | $6.9M |
| 2026-04-08 | 1,179 | $305.46 | $360,137.34 |
| 2026-04-07 | 3,694 | $299.99 | $1.1M |
| 2026-04-06 | 3,941 | $295.77 | $1.2M |
| 2026-04-02 | 3,000 | $297.39 | $892,170 |
| 2026-04-01 | 5,576 | $287.56 | $1.6M |
| 2026-03-31 | 1,732 | $273.50 | $473,702 |
| 2026-03-30 | 3,613 | $274.34 | $991,190.42 |
| 2026-03-27 | 191 | $280.92 | $53,655.72 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)
Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway | 2026-Q1 | 41,283,098 | $11,871,367,661K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | 15,072,600 | $4,334,276,856K |
| Tiger Global | 2026-Q1 | 10,631,402 | $3,057,165,959K |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | 6,560,100 | $1,886,422,356K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | 1,997,674 | $574,451,135K |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | 591,000 | $169,947,960K |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | 573,929 | $165,039,023K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | 542,471 | $155,991,409K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | 202,500 | $58,230,900K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | 189,100 | $54,377,596K |
| Berkshire Hathaway | 2025-Q4 | 17,846,142 | $5,585,842,446K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | 14,633,100 | $4,580,160,300K |
| Tiger Global | 2025-Q4 | 10,631,402 | $3,327,628,826K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | 2,684,166 | $840,143,958K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | 1,891,400 | $592,008,200K |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| GOOG | 0.997 | 0.997 | High co-movement |
| TSM | 0.439 | 0.475 | Moderate |
| AMZN | 0.428 | 0.437 | Moderate |
| LRCX | 0.421 | 0.496 | Moderate |
| ASML | 0.396 | 0.457 | Moderate |
| USN070592100 | 0.395 | 0.455 | Moderate |
| AVGO | 0.393 | 0.510 | Moderate |
| SHOP | 0.376 | 0.432 | Moderate |
| MPWR | 0.375 | 0.419 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare GOOGL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.