GSK (GSK)

$109.4B
Market Cap
14.7
P/E Ratio
0.32
Beta
3.26%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 8/9Altman Z 2.6 Gray ZoneROIC−WACC +8.5%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 8/9) with Altman Z of 2.6.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The capital allocation efficiency of this entity demonstrates robust value creation, evidenced by a ROIC-WACC spread of +9.5%, indicating returns on invested capital significantly exceed the cost of financing. This high-quality earnings profile is driven primarily by exceptional pricing power rather than operational velocity or leverage; specifically, a net margin of 17.5% and gross margin of 72.4% suggest strong brand moats, while an asset turnover of only 0.53x reveals that revenue generation relies heavily on capital intensity rather than rapid inventory cycling. The DuPont decomposition confirms this structure with a 35.8% ROE fueled by these expansive margins and a moderate equity multiplier of 3.83x. Financial stability is further corroborated by an Altman Z-Score of 2.6, placing the firm in the "gray zone" between safety and distress, yet bolstered by a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, which signals strong financial health based on balance sheet strength and earnings quality trends over time.

Valuation metrics present a divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value estimates derived from discounted cash flow modeling. Trading at a forward P/E of 14.7x, the stock appears compressed relative to its historical performance and likely undervalued if compared against sector peers who typically command higher multiples for similar growth profiles. The DCF analysis anchors fair value at $25, implying that current market prices may not fully reflect expected future cash flows or assume a lower terminal growth rate than warranted by the company's 4.1% revenue expansion. This gap suggests the market is pricing in potential headwinds or demanding a higher risk premium despite the underlying fundamentals supporting sustainable double-digit returns on capital.

Risk assessment remains neutral regarding insider sentiment, with zero net buying or selling activity observed over the last ninety days, offering no clear signal of management confidence or distress. While the Altman Z-Score warrants monitoring for potential liquidity constraints given its proximity to the bankruptcy threshold, the high Piotroski score mitigates immediate solvency concerns. The combination of moderate revenue growth and a valuation that appears disconnected from DCF fair value creates an asymmetric setup where downside protection is theoretically supported by strong margins, yet upside realization depends on whether market sentiment corrects its perception of future cash flow potential.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →6%7.5%9.5%
2%$23$16$11
3%$30$19$13
4%$45$24$15

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $19 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

8/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
2.6
Altman Z-Score
Grey Zone — between 1.8 and 3.0 thresholds. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.

Profitability & Value Creation

72.4%
Gross Margin
17.5%
Net Margin
16.1%
ROIC
7.5%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: +8.5%— Positive value creation spread.
+4.1%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+122.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.8B
Free Cash Flow
54%
FCF Payout Ratio

✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

17.5%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.53x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
3.83x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
35.8%
Return on Equity
⚠️ High equity multiplier — ROE is being amplified by leverage, not operational excellence.

Balance Sheet Health

2.83x
Debt / Equity
0.82x
Current Ratio
11.8x
Interest Coverage
1.0x
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.96%
FCF Yield
10.4B
EBITDA

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $1.04
Act: $1.20
+15.6%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $1.11
Act: $1.24
+11.7%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $1.26
Act: $1.46
+15.4%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $0.62
Act: $0.70
+11.9%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

10.7
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
9.99
Price/Book
5M
Avg Volume
$61.70
52W High
$32.38
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$3.2B
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding GSK
0.28%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$1.2T
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like VGK or VYMI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell GSK shares regardless of GSK's individual fundamentals. We estimate $3.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to GSK through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in GSK to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

GSK Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
GSKEpicenterVXUSETFVEAETFVEUETFASMLLow RiskNOVNUnknownROPMed Risk2330UnknownNESNUnknown
GSK Price Drop (%)0

If GSK (GSK) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ASML Holding NV (ASML) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with GSK. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 9 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

GSK Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
GSK

Float lock-up computed from 9 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

GSK Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does GSK convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$4.8B
EBITDA
$10.4B
FCF Conversion
46%
Reinvestment Rate
54%
46% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
16.1%
ROIC − WACC Spread
8.5%

GSK converts 46% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 54% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 8.5% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-14546$50.99$27,840.54
2026-05-135,998$50.90$305,298.2
2026-05-1218,705$49.81$931,696.05
2026-05-11893$50.41$45,016.13
2026-05-0866,369$50.50$3.4M
2026-04-292,171$54.47$118,254.37
2026-04-2836,129$54.22$2.0M
2026-04-20154,822$58.35$9.0M
2026-04-155,189$59.18$307,085.02
2026-04-1362,138$58.21$3.6M
2026-04-1080,697$58.36$4.7M
2026-04-08101,252$55.84$5.7M
2026-04-02261,160$55.99$14.6M
2026-03-2728,657$53.94$1.5M
2026-03-26273$54.70$14,933.1
2026-03-2516$52.95$847.2
2026-03-231,165$51.84$60,393.6
2026-03-191,831$52.06$95,321.86
2026-03-131,866$54.28$101,286.48
2026-03-09325$54.51$17,715.75
2026-03-0470$57.07$3,994.9
2026-02-262,653$59.54$157,959.62
2026-02-23600$59.52$35,712
2026-02-2066,299$60.85$4.0M
2026-02-19240$61.18$14,683.2
2026-02-18187$60.87$11,382.69
2026-02-1256$58.49$3,275.44
2026-02-11200$58.82$11,764
2026-02-1096$59.01$5,664.96
2026-02-09100$60.23$6,023

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Compare GSK to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.