The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicKO trades at 24.8x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 32.6x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 5.0 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $7 implies 90% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this consumer defensive leader exhibit a robust capital allocation profile, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of 10.0%, indicating significant value creation relative to the cost of equity. The DuPont decomposition reveals that returns are primarily driven by exceptional operating leverage with net margins at 27.3%, supported by moderate asset turnover and financial leverage; this structural strength is corroborated by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, an Altman Z-Score of 5.0 signaling low bankruptcy risk, and a negative Beneish M-Score of -2.35 that suggests minimal earnings manipulation concerns despite modest revenue growth of just 1.9% year-over-year.
Valuation metrics present a distinct divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. While the stock trades at a P/E multiple of 25.2x, which is notably below the sector average of 31.2x, suggesting relative undervaluation within its peer group, the DCF model implies a fair value significantly lower than current levels. The gap between implied fundamentals and market price results in a calculated downside potential of -86.8% from the DCF fair value anchor, creating an ambiguous risk-reward landscape where traditional multiple compression is offset by aggressive discount rate assumptions or conservative growth inputs used in the valuation model.
Risk factor analysis highlights conflicting signals regarding future performance expectations versus recent corporate governance activity. The stock demonstrates strong exposure to profitability factors with a Robust Margins (RMW) alpha of 0.121 and benefits from a value tilt via an HML score of 0.216, while the Fama-French Alpha stands at an impressive annualized 11.46%. However, these fundamental strengths are juxtaposed against substantial insider activity over the last ninety days, characterized by $71,982,143 in net selling, which may warrant scrutiny regarding management's view on near-term equity valuation or liquidity needs absent other explanatory context.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.5% | 9.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $9 | $6 | $3 |
| 3% | $13 | $7 | $4 |
| 4% | $21 | $10 | $5 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $78.41.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $7 (-90.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 34% below its 5-year average P/E of 38.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current technical landscape for The Coca-Cola Company suggests a period of consolidation where larger market participants appear to be accumulating or distributing positions within a defined range. While the specific moving average crossovers mentioned in broader data contexts often signal potential trend shifts, the present price action at $81.48 indicates that institutional players are likely waiting for clearer directional momentum before committing significant capital. This behavior is typical of defensive sectors where major entities prefer stability over volatility until macroeconomic signals align with their long-term strategies. Volume trends in this context serve as a critical barometer for the intensity of these large-scale trades, though raw figures require interpretation regarding whether they support an impending breakout or a continued sideways grind. If volume were to spike on upward price movements without corresponding fundamental news, it could imply that smart money is aggressively positioning ahead of anticipated earnings or sector rotation. Conversely, declining volume during minor rallies might suggest a lack of institutional conviction in the current uptick, leading larger players to maintain their existing allocations rather than increase exposure. Ultimately, the interplay between price levels and implied order flow reveals a market where institutions are exercising caution. The absence of decisive breakouts or high-volume confirmations at this juncture implies that major holders are not yet fully committed to either side of the trade. This dynamic creates an environment where larger players might be testing liquidity pools before making definitive moves, leaving room for price to fluctuate as they gauge market sentiment and regulatory headwinds specific to consumer staples.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | $0.5300 | +3.9% |
| 2025-12-01 | $0.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-15 | $0.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | $0.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.5100 | +5.2% |
| 2024-11-29 | $0.4850 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.4850 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.4850 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.4850 | +5.4% |
| 2023-11-30 | $0.4600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.4600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-15 | $0.4600 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Smart Money Flow
Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares Change | % Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | +92,800 | +42.8% | Increased |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | +150,643 | +100.0% | New Position |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | -3,009,444 | -99.8% | Decreased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | -8,700 | -23.8% | Decreased |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | +874,354 | +135.6% | Increased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | +312,700 | +10.6% | Increased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | -61,158 | -21.4% | Decreased |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | +16,214 | +4.4% | Increased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | -386,100 | -11.5% | Decreased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | +34,650 | +13.8% | Increased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | +14,400 | +65.2% | Increased |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | -2,392,390 | -86.7% | Decreased |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IYK or VDC, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell KO shares regardless of The Coca-Cola Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $38.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to KO through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in The Coca-Cola Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If The Coca-Cola Company (KO) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies PepsiCo Inc (PEP) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with KO. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 39 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
KO Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 KO shares, reducing daily market volatility.
The Coca-Cola Company (KO) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 12.1% of the IYK (IYK) and 8.3% of the VDC (VDC). Across 38 tracked ETFs, approximately 520M shares (12.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest KO Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 38 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
KO Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for The Coca-Cola Company over the past year sits near $68.00 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $78.41 trades 15.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
KO Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does The Coca-Cola Company convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
The Coca-Cola Company converts 28% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 72% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 9.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 694 | $80.26 | $55,700.44 |
| 2026-05-08 | 14,922 | $78.43 | $1.2M |
| 2026-05-07 | 5,345 | $79.23 | $423,484.35 |
| 2026-05-05 | 179 | $78.19 | $13,996.01 |
| 2026-05-04 | 40 | $78.58 | $3,143.2 |
| 2026-04-30 | 1,696 | $78.87 | $133,763.52 |
| 2026-04-29 | 1,430 | $78.35 | $112,040.5 |
| 2026-04-27 | 1,946 | $76.63 | $149,121.98 |
| 2026-04-20 | 100 | $75.74 | $7,574 |
| 2026-04-17 | 341 | $75.18 | $25,636.38 |
| 2026-04-15 | 30 | $75.90 | $2,277 |
| 2026-04-13 | 13,000 | $77.47 | $1.0M |
| 2026-04-07 | 580 | $77.22 | $44,787.6 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,702 | $76.72 | $130,577.44 |
| 2026-03-30 | 2,116 | $75.71 | $160,202.36 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2,116 | $74.69 | $158,044.04 |
| 2026-03-23 | 300 | $74.75 | $22,425 |
| 2026-03-19 | 157 | $75.97 | $11,927.29 |
| 2026-03-16 | 200 | $77.34 | $15,468 |
| 2026-03-13 | 27,630 | $77.61 | $2.1M |
| 2026-03-12 | 174 | $77.63 | $13,507.62 |
| 2026-03-09 | 28 | $77.04 | $2,157.12 |
| 2026-03-05 | 150 | $78.10 | $11,715 |
| 2026-03-02 | 58,831 | $81.56 | $4.8M |
| 2026-02-27 | 73,987 | $80.50 | $6.0M |
| 2026-02-23 | 29,958 | $79.84 | $2.4M |
| 2026-02-19 | 27 | $79.49 | $2,146.23 |
| 2026-02-18 | 1,113 | $79.56 | $88,550.28 |
| 2026-02-10 | 57 | $77.97 | $4,444.29 |
| 2026-02-09 | 4,771 | $79.03 | $377,052.13 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)
Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | 3,271,100 | $248,767,155K |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | 1,519,154 | $115,531,662K |
| Berkshire Hathaway | 2026-Q1 | 960,000 | $73,008,000K |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | 383,986 | $29,202,135K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | 309,600 | $23,545,080K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | 224,951 | $17,107,524K |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | 150,643 | $11,456,400K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | 27,800 | $2,114,190K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | 4,948 | $375,124K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | 3,014,392 | $210,739,739K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | 2,958,400 | $206,821,744K |
| Berkshire Hathaway | 2025-Q4 | 960,000 | $67,113,600K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | 644,800 | $45,077,968K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | 367,772 | $25,710,941K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | 286,109 | $20,001,880K |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CL | 0.632 | 0.648 | Moderate |
| PG | 0.582 | 0.588 | Moderate |
| PEP | 0.566 | 0.591 | Moderate |
| MDLZ | 0.508 | 0.535 | Moderate |
| MCD | 0.480 | 0.457 | Moderate |
| MNST | 0.466 | 0.515 | Moderate |
| KDP | 0.460 | 0.432 | Moderate |
| CLX | 0.439 | 0.502 | Moderate |
| DUK | 0.436 | 0.284 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare KO to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.