Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 22.2x earnings — a 32% discount to the sector average of 32.6x — KDP is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 1.3. DCF fair value of $23 implies 11% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency presents a notable headwind, as the return on invested capital of 5.8% falls below the weighted average cost of capital by 0.3%, indicating that recent growth initiatives may be diluting shareholder value despite robust top-line expansion of 8.2%. This dynamic is underpinned primarily by high leverage rather than operational intensity; while net margins remain healthy at 12.5%, driven largely by a gross margin exceeding 54%, the equity multiplier of 2.17x suggests that returns are being amplified through balance sheet risk instead of asset turnover or pricing power. Credit metrics reflect this structural tension, with an Altman Z-Score of 1.3 signaling elevated distress probability and a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggesting moderate financial strength, though the negative Fama-French alpha of -6.64% annually indicates that stock-specific returns have lagged systematic value factors over time.
Valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in limited future growth potential rather than immediate earnings acceleration. The current P/E multiple of 16.5x sits at a discount to implied fair value derived from discounted cash flow models, which project a long-term free cash flow growth rate of merely 2.4% and assign an intrinsic worth $32 higher than prevailing prices, translating to roughly 22.5% upside based on current assumptions. This divergence implies that the market is currently discounting the stock more heavily for risk or lack of visibility into future margin expansion, even though profitability factors remain neutral at 0.029 and insider trading activity over the last quarter shows no directional flow.
The equity tilt toward value, evidenced by a positive HML factor loading of 0.192, aligns with the company's low growth expectations but must be weighed against its specific risk profile. While the Beneish M-Score of -2.50 offers some reassurance regarding earnings manipulation risks, the combination of negative alpha and sub-par ROIC relative to cost of capital suggests that future performance will depend heavily on whether management can pivot from leverage-driven returns to more efficient organic growth without further eroding the already thin spread between return and capital costs.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 8% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 6.9% | 8.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $24 | $17 | $10 |
| 3% | $33 | $23 | $12 |
| 4% | $52 | $33 | $16 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $30.36.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=6.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $23 (-11.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 15% below its 5-year average P/E of 20.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCurrent price action for Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. at $29.12 within the consumer defensive sector presents a snapshot where short-term momentum indicators may be interacting with longer-term averages in ways that suggest shifting institutional sentiment. The proximity of recent trading levels to key moving average crossovers often signals that larger market participants are either consolidating their positions or beginning to adjust exposure based on evolving valuation metrics. In this context, the convergence of price near these structural support and resistance lines can imply a period where institutions might be pausing accumulation or distribution activities while they assess broader sector fundamentals against current equity valuations. Volume trends accompanying these price movements serve as a critical filter for interpreting whether observed shifts are driven by passive index rebalancing or active strategic positioning by sophisticated capital allocators. If trading activity has intensified alongside the approach of major moving averages, it frequently indicates that institutional flows are becoming more pronounced, potentially reflecting a reassessment of long-term cash flow stability relative to interest rate environments typical for consumer staples. Conversely, muted volume during these technical junctures could suggest that larger players are waiting for clearer directional confirmation before committing significant capital, thereby creating a state of equilibrium where neither aggressive buying nor selling dominates the order book. Ultimately, the interplay between price location and historical average crossings offers insight into how established investors might be weighting risk versus reward in this specific equity. The technical architecture currently suggests that institutional behavior is nuanced rather than uniformly directional, with market depth potentially absorbing orders at these levels while
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | $0.2300 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-02 | $0.2300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-26 | $0.2300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-27 | $0.2300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-28 | $0.2300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-03 | $0.2300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-27 | $0.2300 | +7.0% |
| 2024-06-28 | $0.2150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-27 | $0.2150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-04 | $0.2150 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-28 | $0.2150 | +7.5% |
| 2023-06-29 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLP or VDC, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell KDP shares regardless of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $6.3B of passive capital is structurally linked to KDP through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Walmart Inc. (WMT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with KDP. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
KDP Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 KDP shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.5% of the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) and 1.3% of the VDC (VDC). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 232M shares (17.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest KDP Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
KDP Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. over the past year sits near $26.43 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $30.36 trades 14.9% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
KDP Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. converts 35% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 65% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-1.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 2 | $29.09 | $58.18 |
| 2026-05-01 | 3,029 | $29.40 | $89,052.6 |
| 2026-04-30 | 523 | $28.93 | $15,130.39 |
| 2026-04-29 | 18,329 | $28.79 | $527,691.91 |
| 2026-04-22 | 694,148 | $26.44 | $18.4M |
| 2026-04-20 | 19,493 | $26.53 | $517,149.29 |
| 2026-04-17 | 10,844 | $26.04 | $282,377.76 |
| 2026-04-16 | 749 | $26.00 | $19,474 |
| 2026-04-15 | 23,968 | $26.02 | $623,647.36 |
| 2026-04-14 | 5,395 | $26.04 | $140,485.8 |
| 2026-04-07 | 7,334 | $25.70 | $188,483.8 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1 | $25.31 | $25.31 |
| 2026-03-25 | 136 | $26.21 | $3,564.56 |
| 2026-03-24 | 73,955 | $26.55 | $2.0M |
| 2026-03-23 | 11,965 | $26.59 | $318,149.35 |
| 2026-03-20 | 62 | $27.15 | $1,683.3 |
| 2026-03-16 | 205,361 | $27.41 | $5.6M |
| 2026-03-13 | 61 | $26.93 | $1,642.73 |
| 2026-03-09 | 4,982 | $28.25 | $140,741.5 |
| 2026-02-24 | 6,667 | $29.77 | $198,476.59 |
| 2026-02-23 | 227,003 | $29.54 | $6.7M |
| 2026-02-20 | 35,769 | $29.10 | $1.0M |
| 2026-02-19 | 10 | $29.14 | $291.4 |
| 2026-02-18 | 465 | $29.13 | $13,545.45 |
| 2026-02-13 | 26,545 | $29.91 | $793,960.95 |
| 2026-02-11 | 10,989 | $28.71 | $315,494.19 |
| 2026-02-06 | 29,167 | $28.01 | $816,967.67 |
| 2026-02-04 | 900 | $27.97 | $25,173 |
| 2026-01-22 | 24 | $27.70 | $664.8 |
| 2026-01-21 | 5,752 | $27.95 | $160,768.4 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| PEP | 0.483 | 0.475 | Moderate |
| KO | 0.460 | 0.432 | Moderate |
| CAG | 0.434 | 0.464 | Moderate |
| KHC | 0.418 | 0.457 | Moderate |
| CLX | 0.412 | 0.457 | Moderate |
| TAP | 0.407 | 0.405 | Moderate |
| MDLZ | 0.406 | 0.455 | Moderate |
| CL | 0.396 | 0.363 | Moderate |
| BF.B | 0.395 | 0.467 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare KDP to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.