The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 0.5. DCF fair value of $214 implies 854% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of The Kraft Heinz Company present a severe value trap characterized by negative capital allocation efficiency and deteriorating profitability. With an ROIC-WACC spread of -9.5%, the company is actively destroying shareholder value, exacerbated by a DuPont ROE decomposition revealing a net margin contraction to -23.4% despite modest asset turnover of 0.30x. Financial distress signals are amplified by an Altman Z-Score of 0.5 and a Piotroski F-Score of only 4/9, indicating weak balance sheet health and declining fundamentals. While the Beneish M-Score of -3.06 suggests management earnings may not be aggressively manipulated, the core issue remains the inability to generate returns above the cost of capital amidst revenue contraction.
Valuation metrics display a stark divergence between market pricing and discounted cash flow models, creating an ambiguous risk-reward profile. The stock trades at a significant premium relative to its sector average P/E of 34.4x given current operational losses, yet DCF analysis implies a fair value of $470 with theoretical upside exceeding 1987%. This extreme discrepancy stems from the model's assumption of negative free cash flow growth averaging -14.6% over ten years; if this trajectory holds, the implied valuation is mathematically unsustainable without a fundamental regime shift in profitability. The Fama-French alpha of -27.14% annually further confirms that risk-adjusted returns have been severely underwhelming relative to market factors.
Risk assessment highlights significant headwinds driven by insider activity and factor exposures. Over the past 90 days, insiders executed net selling totaling $344,078, a signal often correlated with management concerns regarding near-term prospects or valuation levels. While the stock exhibits neutral exposure to value (HML: 0.080), it lacks robust profitability characteristics despite an RMW factor score of 0.133, which appears inconsistent with reported negative margins and warrants scrutiny in model inputs. Investors must weigh whether current pricing reflects a temporary cyclical downturn or a structural inability to reverse the negative ROIC-WACC spread observed over recent periods.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 6.3% | 8.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $181 | $165 | $106 |
| 3% | $239 | $214 | $125 |
| 4% | $357 | $304 | $153 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $23.33.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=6.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $214 (+854.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe Kraft Heinz Company is currently trading at $23.79 within the consumer defensive sector, presenting a market position that requires careful observation of its relationship with key moving averages to gauge trend direction. While specific average values are not provided in this snapshot, the immediate price level serves as a critical reference point for determining whether recent momentum aligns with longer-term trends or indicates potential divergence. In such scenarios, analysts typically monitor if the current trading floor sustains above these benchmarks, which would signal an uptrend, or falls below them, suggesting downward pressure. The Relative Strength Index often acts as a vital gauge for short-term velocity in this type of equity, though its specific reading is absent here to prevent misinterpretation without data points. Generally, when price action oscillates near support levels like $23.79, the RSI helps distinguish between healthy consolidation and exhausted momentum that might precede a reversal. Without knowing if the indicator sits in overbought or oversold territory, one can only infer that the stock's immediate trajectory depends on whether buyers are successfully defending this price zone against selling pressure. Ultimately, the technical landscape for KHC hinges on how $23.79 interacts with historical averages and volume profiles to define the prevailing trend. Investors must weigh these positional factors alongside broader market conditions in the consumer defensive space before forming a view on future price movement. The absence of definitive momentum signals in this brief overview suggests that further analysis is required to confirm whether the current setup
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-28 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-29 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-30 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-07 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-29 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-30 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-06 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-07 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-30 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-31 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-05 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SPHD or XLP, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell KHC shares regardless of The Kraft Heinz Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $3.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to KHC through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in The Kraft Heinz Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Walmart Inc. (WMT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with KHC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 32 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
KHC Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 KHC shares, reducing daily market volatility.
The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.7% of the SPHD (SPHD) and 1.3% of the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 162M shares (13.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest KHC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
KHC Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for The Kraft Heinz Company over the past year sits near $24.27 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $23.33 sits 3.9% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 71,523 | $23.18 | $1.7M |
| 2026-05-13 | 18 | $23.37 | $420.66 |
| 2026-05-11 | 23,126 | $23.96 | $554,098.96 |
| 2026-05-08 | 11,068 | $23.64 | $261,647.52 |
| 2026-05-07 | 369,939 | $23.07 | $8.5M |
| 2026-05-04 | 1 | $22.49 | $22.49 |
| 2026-05-01 | 991 | $22.66 | $22,456.06 |
| 2026-04-29 | 3,781 | $22.47 | $84,959.07 |
| 2026-04-27 | 300 | $21.94 | $6,582 |
| 2026-04-20 | 13,135 | $22.47 | $295,143.45 |
| 2026-04-17 | 23 | $22.59 | $519.57 |
| 2026-04-15 | 6 | $22.11 | $132.66 |
| 2026-04-09 | 13 | $22.95 | $298.35 |
| 2026-04-07 | 86 | $23.57 | $2,027.02 |
| 2026-04-06 | 119 | $22.79 | $2,712.01 |
| 2026-04-01 | 1,252 | $22.49 | $28,157.48 |
| 2026-03-31 | 8,826 | $22.34 | $197,172.84 |
| 2026-03-27 | 1,065 | $21.56 | $22,961.4 |
| 2026-03-25 | 4,321 | $21.32 | $92,123.72 |
| 2026-03-24 | 21,789 | $21.21 | $462,144.69 |
| 2026-03-23 | 455 | $21.57 | $9,814.35 |
| 2026-03-20 | 4,986 | $21.76 | $108,495.36 |
| 2026-03-13 | 26,817 | $22.33 | $598,823.61 |
| 2026-03-11 | 14,233 | $23.66 | $336,752.78 |
| 2026-03-10 | 448 | $24.44 | $10,949.12 |
| 2026-03-09 | 35,968 | $24.54 | $882,654.72 |
| 2026-03-06 | 1,500 | $24.23 | $36,345 |
| 2026-03-02 | 200 | $24.61 | $4,922 |
| 2026-02-26 | 19,402 | $24.56 | $476,513.12 |
| 2026-02-23 | 200 | $24.40 | $4,880 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CPB | 0.686 | 0.657 | Moderate |
| GIS | 0.683 | 0.698 | Moderate |
| CAG | 0.639 | 0.658 | Moderate |
| MDLZ | 0.540 | 0.604 | Moderate |
| PEP | 0.515 | 0.521 | Moderate |
| MKC | 0.486 | 0.452 | Moderate |
| EQR | 0.476 | 0.382 | Moderate |
| MAA | 0.466 | 0.409 | Moderate |
| HRL | 0.466 | 0.514 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare KHC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.