The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 0.9. DCF fair value of $143 implies 60% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of The J. M. Smucker Company present a stark divergence between top-line expansion and capital efficiency, characterized by a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -8.7% that signals value destruction despite robust revenue growth of 6.7%. This deterioration is rooted in the DuPont decomposition of ROE, where a net margin contraction to -14.1% overwhelms moderate asset turnover of 0.50x and leverage at 2.89x, resulting in an overall ROE of -20.2%. While the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggests reasonable financial strength relative to peers, it is counterbalanced by a distressed Altman Z-Score of 1.0, indicating elevated bankruptcy risk, though this may be mitigated by a strong Beneish M-Score of -3.33 pointing away from earnings manipulation.
Valuation metrics reveal a significant disconnect between current pricing and intrinsic value models; the stock trades at a substantial discount relative to its DCF fair value of $231, implying 139.8% upside potential based on those assumptions. However, this valuation gap exists within a context where implied free cash flow growth over ten years is negative (-3.2%), and sector averages suggest multiple compression risks given the company's profitability challenges compared to the average P/E of 34.2x. The market appears to be pricing in persistent operational headwinds rather than the recovery potential suggested by historical multiples, creating a scenario where high theoretical upside relies heavily on margin stabilization.
Risk-adjusted performance indicators offer mixed signals regarding future alpha generation. Although the annual Fama-French Alpha stands at 0.21%, suggesting modest outperformance relative to market factors, both Value (HML) and Profitability (RMW) factor exposures are neutral or slightly negative (-0.053), indicating no clear tilt toward value premium capture driven by profitability improvements. Recent insider activity shows $49,410 in net buying over 90 days, which may signal management confidence despite the deteriorating margin profile and distressed Z-Score, yet this flow is insufficient to offset the fundamental drag on capital returns without a structural turnaround in operating leverage or pricing power.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 7% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 6.3% | 8.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $115 | $104 | $56 |
| 3% | $162 | $143 | $71 |
| 4% | $256 | $217 | $94 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $100.47.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=6.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $143 (+60.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe stock is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating an uptrend in the near term. The RSI at 47.3 suggests that the stock currently has neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $1.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-13 | $1.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-14 | $1.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-15 | $1.1000 | +1.9% |
| 2025-05-16 | $1.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-14 | $1.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-15 | $1.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-16 | $1.0800 | +1.9% |
| 2024-05-16 | $1.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-15 | $1.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-16 | $1.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-17 | $1.0600 | +3.9% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like NOBL or SPYD, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell SJM shares regardless of The J. M. Smucker Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to SJM through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in The J. M. Smucker Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Walmart Inc. (WMT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with SJM. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 28 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
SJM Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 SJM shares, reducing daily market volatility.
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.6% of the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and 1.2% of the SPYD (SPYD). Across 28 tracked ETFs, approximately 17M shares (16.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest SJM Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 28 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
SJM Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for The J. M. Smucker Company over the past year sits near $101.50 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $100.47 sits 1.0% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 1,962 | $98.03 | $192,334.86 |
| 2026-04-09 | 800 | $93.79 | $75,032 |
| 2026-04-06 | 4 | $95.47 | $381.88 |
| 2026-03-25 | 10 | $96.86 | $968.6 |
| 2026-03-19 | 235,251 | $101.40 | $23.9M |
| 2026-02-27 | 320,286 | $116.00 | $37.2M |
| 2026-02-26 | 3,800 | $106.60 | $405,080 |
| 2026-02-20 | 1,346 | $109.57 | $147,481.22 |
| 2026-02-13 | 743 | $111.01 | $82,480.43 |
| 2026-02-04 | 1 | $105.86 | $105.86 |
| 2026-01-30 | 5 | $103.48 | $517.4 |
| 2025-12-23 | 57 | $99.15 | $5,651.55 |
| 2025-12-22 | 12,056 | $98.69 | $1.2M |
| 2025-12-11 | 3 | $99.68 | $299.04 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2 | $103.09 | $206.18 |
| 2025-12-01 | 132 | $104.18 | $13,751.76 |
| 2025-11-12 | 9 | $108.53 | $976.77 |
| 2025-11-06 | 2,588 | $105.26 | $272,412.88 |
| 2025-11-05 | 9,440 | $103.64 | $978,361.6 |
| 2025-10-23 | 2 | $104.75 | $209.5 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| GIS | 0.540 | 0.581 | Moderate |
| CPB | 0.459 | 0.478 | Moderate |
| KHC | 0.442 | 0.446 | Moderate |
| CAG | 0.431 | 0.504 | Moderate |
| CLX | 0.367 | 0.378 | Moderate |
| MDLZ | 0.362 | 0.368 | Moderate |
| TAP | 0.349 | 0.419 | Moderate |
| MCD | 0.349 | 0.292 | Moderate |
| MKC | 0.347 | 0.353 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare SJM to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.