General Mills, Inc. (GIS)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 8.3x earnings — a 75% discount to the sector average of 32.6x — GIS is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 2.2. DCF fair value of $28 implies 20% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of General Mills reveal a capital allocation strategy where the ROIC-WACC spread of 6.3% indicates value creation, yet this is underpinned by an asset-heavy model rather than organic efficiency gains. The DuPont decomposition shows that the robust 24.9% ROE and healthy net margins are primarily driven by significant financial leverage (Equity Multiplier at 3.59x) combined with moderate asset turnover, suggesting earnings stability relies heavily on balance sheet structure. While profitability factors remain strong, the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals mixed quality regarding operating cash flow and leverage trends, while an Altman Z-Score of 2.3 places the entity in a gray zone between safety and distress, contrasting with a clean Beneish M-Score that suggests earnings are not aggressively managed.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence from historical norms and sector peers, as the current P/E of 9.1x trades at a substantial discount to the sector average of 34.4x. This compression aligns closely with DCF-derived fair value assumptions which imply negative free cash flow growth over a ten-year horizon, resulting in an upside calculation that appears disconnected from traditional multiple expansion logic. The market is currently pricing in significant headwinds, likely reflecting concerns about the implied deceleration in fundamentals rather than current profitability levels.
Risk-adjusted performance data indicates underperformance relative to factor models, with a Fama-French Alpha of -30.06% suggesting the stock has failed to generate excess returns after adjusting for market risk and size/value premiums over time. Despite neutral insider flow and a value factor rating that is neither aggressive nor defensive, the combination of negative long-term growth projections and persistent alpha drag creates an asymmetric profile where valuation discounts may not fully compensate for structural stagnation in cash generation capacity.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $40 | $22 | $13 |
| 3% | $54 | $28 | $16 |
| 4% | $82 | $36 | $19 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $33.07.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $28 (-20.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 41% below its 5-year average P/E of 14.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedGeneral Mills, Inc. is currently trading at $33.62 within the Consumer Defensive sector. To assess momentum and trend direction without issuing specific directional advice, one must examine the relationship between the current price level and its established moving averages. If the stock price remains consistently above these key average lines, it typically indicates a prevailing bullish structure where buyers have been willing to pay higher prices over time. Conversely, trading below these benchmarks often signals bearish pressure or a correction phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) serves as a critical gauge for short-term momentum intensity; values approaching the upper threshold suggest the asset may be experiencing rapid appreciation and potential exhaustion, while readings near lower levels could imply oversold conditions where downward force might be waning. In this specific instance at $33.62, the technical configuration relies heavily on how recent price action interacts with these smoothed historical averages to define the immediate trend slope. A sustained position above the moving average would reinforce a positive trajectory, whereas a breach below could signal a shift in market sentiment toward caution. The RSI provides context for the speed of this movement, helping to distinguish between strong trending behavior and temporary volatility spikes. Market participants observing these metrics are essentially looking at whether the current price action is supported by underlying trend strength or if it represents an anomaly within the broader statistical range. Ultimately, the confluence of price placement relative to moving averages and the RSI's momentum reading offers a snapshot of market dynamics that traders must interpret in light
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | $0.6100 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-09 | $0.6100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-10 | $0.6100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-10 | $0.6100 | +1.7% |
| 2025-04-10 | $0.6000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-10 | $0.6000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-10 | $0.6000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-10 | $0.6000 | +1.7% |
| 2024-04-09 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-09 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-06 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-07 | $0.5900 | +9.3% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLP or SPYD, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell GIS shares regardless of General Mills, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to GIS through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in General Mills, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If General Mills, Inc. (GIS) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Walmart Inc. (WMT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with GIS. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 33 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
GIS Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 GIS shares, reducing daily market volatility.
General Mills, Inc. (GIS) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.2% of the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) and 0.9% of the SPYD (SPYD). Across 33 tracked ETFs, approximately 107M shares (20.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest GIS Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 33 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
GIS Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for General Mills, Inc. over the past year sits near $48.51 (16% of 252-day volume). The current price of $33.07 sits 31.8% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (16% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
GIS Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does General Mills, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
General Mills, Inc. converts 58% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 2.4% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 13,375 | $33.61 | $449,533.75 |
| 2026-05-13 | 1,198 | $34.13 | $40,887.74 |
| 2026-05-12 | 25 | $33.80 | $845 |
| 2026-05-07 | 65,077 | $35.07 | $2.3M |
| 2026-05-06 | 73,135 | $34.55 | $2.5M |
| 2026-04-20 | 55,426 | $35.50 | $2.0M |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $34.70 | $104.1 |
| 2026-04-14 | 1,550 | $34.56 | $53,568 |
| 2026-04-13 | 1,200 | $35.59 | $42,708 |
| 2026-04-10 | 3,933 | $36.75 | $144,537.75 |
| 2026-04-09 | 214,155 | $36.60 | $7.8M |
| 2026-03-25 | 89,584 | $36.80 | $3.3M |
| 2026-03-23 | 131 | $37.01 | $4,848.31 |
| 2026-03-06 | 933 | $43.57 | $40,650.81 |
| 2026-03-05 | 933 | $43.56 | $40,641.48 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2,668 | $44.54 | $118,832.72 |
| 2026-02-24 | 153 | $45.38 | $6,943.14 |
| 2026-02-12 | 45,267 | $49.01 | $2.2M |
| 2026-02-09 | 37 | $47.87 | $1,771.19 |
| 2026-02-04 | 2,672 | $46.50 | $124,248 |
| 2026-01-29 | 119,456 | $44.35 | $5.3M |
| 2026-01-13 | 1 | $43.48 | $43.48 |
| 2026-01-12 | 60 | $44.60 | $2,676 |
| 2025-12-31 | 202 | $46.67 | $9,427.34 |
| 2025-12-29 | 61,677 | $47.05 | $2.9M |
| 2025-12-26 | 40 | $47.00 | $1,880 |
| 2025-12-22 | 300 | $47.86 | $14,358 |
| 2025-12-11 | 469 | $45.71 | $21,437.99 |
| 2025-11-28 | 3,347 | $47.17 | $157,877.99 |
| 2025-11-25 | 7,860 | $46.95 | $369,027 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CAG | 0.766 | 0.809 | High co-movement |
| CPB | 0.736 | 0.736 | High co-movement |
| KHC | 0.683 | 0.698 | Moderate |
| MDLZ | 0.616 | 0.604 | Moderate |
| PEP | 0.550 | 0.547 | Moderate |
| CL | 0.546 | 0.546 | Moderate |
| SJM | 0.540 | 0.581 | Moderate |
| CLX | 0.534 | 0.480 | Moderate |
| MKC | 0.513 | 0.498 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare GIS to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.