Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 1.5. DCF fair value of $174 implies 1103% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Conagra Brands reveal a company generating value efficiently, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of +3.1%, indicating returns that comfortably exceed the cost of capital despite recent revenue contraction of -3.6%. The DuPont decomposition highlights that this 12.9% ROE is primarily driven by robust profitability with a net margin of 9.9% and moderate leverage at an equity multiplier of 2.34x, rather than asset turnover efficiency which sits at 0.55x. While the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggests solid financial strength, the Altman Z-Score of 1.6 signals elevated distress risk relative to peers, a nuance that contrasts with the negative Beneish M-Score of -2.67 which implies low earnings manipulation probability and aligns with the robust profitability factor score of 0.498.
Valuation metrics present a significant divergence between market pricing and model-derived intrinsic value; while the stock trades at a substantial discount relative to the sector average P/E of 34.2x, the DCF fair value calculation suggests an implied upside of approximately 2659.6% based on current assumptions. However, this extreme theoretical premium is underpinned by a starkly negative ten-year free cash flow growth projection of -16.6%, indicating that the valuation model relies heavily on mean reversion expectations rather than organic expansion. The market appears to be pricing in persistent stagnation, yet the current multiple remains depressed compared to historical norms and defensive sector peers.
Risk-adjusted performance data indicates a challenging equity factor profile, with an annual Fama-French alpha of -29.28% suggesting the stock has underperformed its risk factors over time despite neutral exposure to value (HML: 0.061). The absence of insider flow activity ($0) over the last 90 days further underscores a lack of directional conviction from management, leaving the investment thesis dependent entirely on whether the market's skepticism regarding future cash flows is warranted given the company's ability to maintain margins in a shrinking revenue environment.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 6.1% | 8.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $138 | $133 | $84 |
| 3% | $183 | $174 | $99 |
| 4% | $273 | $255 | $123 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $12.86.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=6.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $174 (+1102.6%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedConagra Brands, Inc. is currently trading at $13.43 within the consumer defensive sector, presenting a specific technical snapshot that warrants observation regarding its momentum and trend alignment. Without explicit moving average data points in the provided dataset, a definitive assessment of whether the price sits above or below key short-term or long-term averages cannot be made solely from this limited information; however, the current valuation level serves as the baseline for any such future comparison. The absence of Relative Strength Index figures precludes an immediate conclusion on short-term overbought or oversold conditions, leaving the precise momentum trajectory undefined in isolation. In the broader context of technical analysis, the position relative to moving averages would typically dictate whether a stock exhibits bullish strength or bearish weakness, while RSI readings often signal potential reversals or continuation patterns. For Conagra Brands at this price point, these standard indicators remain unspecified, meaning any interpretation of trend direction relies entirely on external data not yet supplied. The current market standing reflects the intersection of sector-specific defensive characteristics and immediate pricing action, but a comprehensive view of momentum requires the inclusion of average comparisons and oscillator readings to fully contextualize the asset's short-term behavior relative to its historical range.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-27 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-30 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-28 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-27 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-31 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-01 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-29 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-29 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-01 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-28 | $0.3500 | +6.1% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SPHD or SPYD, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CAG shares regardless of Conagra Brands, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.3B of passive capital is structurally linked to CAG through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Conagra Brands, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Walmart Inc. (WMT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CAG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 24 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CAG Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 CAG shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.4% of the SPHD (SPHD) and 0.9% of the SPYD (SPYD). Across 23 tracked ETFs, approximately 80M shares (16.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CAG Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 23 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CAG Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Conagra Brands, Inc. over the past year sits near $18.24 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $12.86 sits 29.5% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CAG Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Conagra Brands, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Conagra Brands, Inc. converts 66% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 1.4% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 100 | $14.09 | $1,409 |
| 2026-05-11 | 186 | $14.13 | $2,628.18 |
| 2026-05-08 | 4,122 | $14.36 | $59,191.92 |
| 2026-05-07 | 425 | $14.07 | $5,979.75 |
| 2026-05-05 | 406 | $13.85 | $5,623.1 |
| 2026-04-30 | 200 | $14.23 | $2,846 |
| 2026-04-17 | 8,716 | $14.70 | $128,125.2 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $14.28 | $42.84 |
| 2026-04-14 | 9,671 | $14.51 | $140,326.21 |
| 2026-03-30 | 17 | $15.62 | $265.54 |
| 2026-03-23 | 1,026 | $15.16 | $15,554.16 |
| 2026-03-09 | 293 | $19.02 | $5,572.86 |
| 2026-02-27 | 3,907 | $18.73 | $73,178.11 |
| 2026-02-26 | 588 | $18.67 | $10,977.96 |
| 2026-02-17 | 674 | $19.76 | $13,318.24 |
| 2026-01-28 | 28,593 | $17.95 | $513,244.35 |
| 2026-01-27 | 32,090 | $18.09 | $580,508.1 |
| 2026-01-21 | 216,493 | $17.17 | $3.7M |
| 2026-01-20 | 377,502 | $16.96 | $6.4M |
| 2026-01-16 | 66,472 | $17.37 | $1.2M |
| 2026-01-12 | 12,662 | $16.94 | $214,494.28 |
| 2026-01-08 | 39,857 | $16.08 | $640,900.56 |
| 2026-01-07 | 14,152 | $16.85 | $238,461.2 |
| 2026-01-02 | 151 | $17.31 | $2,613.81 |
| 2025-12-03 | 330,958 | $17.22 | $5.7M |
| 2025-11-24 | 2,487 | $17.77 | $44,193.99 |
| 2025-11-14 | 1,351 | $17.43 | $23,547.93 |
| 2025-11-03 | 51,994 | $17.19 | $893,776.86 |
| 2025-10-31 | 11,541 | $17.42 | $201,044.22 |
| 2025-10-16 | 75 | $18.34 | $1,375.5 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| GIS | 0.766 | 0.809 | High co-movement |
| CPB | 0.682 | 0.672 | Moderate |
| KHC | 0.639 | 0.658 | Moderate |
| MDLZ | 0.575 | 0.631 | Moderate |
| MKC | 0.552 | 0.537 | Moderate |
| TAP | 0.529 | 0.536 | Moderate |
| PEP | 0.522 | 0.608 | Moderate |
| HRL | 0.505 | 0.525 | Moderate |
| CL | 0.488 | 0.529 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CAG to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.