OPCH (OPCH)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 4/9.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency for OPCH presents a mixed fundamental picture, characterized by an ROIC of 10.2% that suggests moderate returns relative to invested capital without explicit WACC context provided. This return profile is underpinned by modest operating leverage, evidenced by net margins compressing at 3.7% against gross margins of 19.3%, indicating significant cost pressures or low pricing power despite a robust revenue growth rate of 13.0%. Quality metrics further complicate the narrative; while a Beneish M-Score of -2.38 signals strong earnings quality and low manipulation risk, the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 reflects middling financial health, suggesting potential weaknesses in balance sheet strength or profitability trends that limit the durability of current returns.
Valuation multiples currently sit at 15.6x P/E, requiring comparison against sector averages to determine relative cheapness or premium status absent specific peer data. The divergence between this market multiple and a DCF-derived fair value of $11 implies a significant gap; if the current trading price exceeds $11 per share, the market is likely pricing in growth expectations that exceed the model's assumptions or allocating excessive capital to future cash flows not yet realized. Conversely, a trading price below this threshold suggests potential undervaluation relative to intrinsic worth, though the low net margin constrains the sustainability of high-growth projections used in such valuations.
Risk assessment relies heavily on the divergence between strong earnings quality indicators and mediocre Piotroski fundamentals. The combination of accelerating revenue growth with thinning bottom-line margins creates a scenario where top-line expansion does not fully translate to shareholder value creation, potentially limiting long-term alpha generation compared to peers with superior margin profiles. Investors must weigh whether the 13% revenue trajectory can sustain or expand net margins before capital allocation efficiency improves sufficiently to justify current valuation levels.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $15 | $10 | $7 |
| 3% | $18 | $11 | $8 |
| 4% | $22 | $13 | $9 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $11 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHS or MDYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell OPCH shares regardless of OPCH's individual fundamentals. We estimate $106M of passive capital is structurally linked to OPCH through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on OPCH's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in OPCH to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If OPCH (OPCH) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies FLEX LTD (FLEX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with OPCH. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 8 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
OPCH Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest OPCH Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 9 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
OPCH Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does OPCH convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
OPCH converts 53% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 342 | $19.83 | $6,781.86 |
| 2026-05-11 | 435 | $20.51 | $8,921.85 |
| 2026-05-08 | 3 | $20.75 | $62.25 |
| 2026-05-07 | 155,319 | $20.45 | $3.2M |
| 2026-05-06 | 141 | $21.30 | $3,003.3 |
| 2026-05-05 | 180 | $21.14 | $3,805.2 |
| 2026-05-04 | 377 | $20.03 | $7,551.31 |
| 2026-04-29 | 100 | $27.77 | $2,777 |
| 2026-04-20 | 1,296 | $28.82 | $37,350.72 |
| 2026-04-10 | 34 | $29.47 | $1,001.98 |
| 2026-04-09 | 4,237 | $29.16 | $123,550.92 |
| 2026-04-02 | 691 | $26.49 | $18,304.59 |
| 2026-03-31 | 33,491 | $27.00 | $904,257 |
| 2026-03-26 | 4,941 | $28.49 | $140,769.09 |
| 2026-03-25 | 1,623 | $28.41 | $46,109.43 |
| 2026-03-24 | 507 | $28.41 | $14,403.87 |
| 2026-03-23 | 12 | $28.16 | $337.92 |
| 2026-03-13 | 131 | $29.39 | $3,850.09 |
| 2026-03-09 | 53 | $29.84 | $1,581.52 |
| 2026-03-02 | 560 | $32.46 | $18,177.6 |
| 2026-02-27 | 13,409 | $31.89 | $427,613.01 |
| 2026-02-19 | 30 | $35.50 | $1,065 |
| 2026-02-18 | 5,753 | $35.24 | $202,735.72 |
| 2026-02-17 | 1,173 | $35.42 | $41,547.66 |
| 2026-02-05 | 3,865 | $33.85 | $130,830.25 |
| 2026-01-30 | 740 | $33.89 | $25,078.6 |
| 2026-01-21 | 12,610 | $35.79 | $451,311.9 |
| 2026-01-20 | 2,449 | $36.03 | $88,237.47 |
| 2026-01-16 | 31 | $36.11 | $1,119.41 |
| 2026-01-12 | 200,000 | $31.80 | $6.4M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare OPCH to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.