ORA (ORA)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 1.6.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company demonstrates a distinct divergence between profitability efficiency and capital allocation quality, characterized by robust pricing power yet weak return on invested capital. While the net margin of 12.5% supports a moderate ROE of 4.6%, this metric is primarily driven by financial leverage (Equity Multiplier at 2.32x) rather than operational asset turnover or high margins alone, as evidenced by the low 0.16x asset turnover ratio. The resulting ROIC spread of only 3.5% suggests that equity holders are not generating significant value above the cost of capital despite strong gross margins near 27.6%. Furthermore, the mixed integrity signals present a nuanced picture: while the Beneish M-Score of -2.61 indicates low earnings manipulation risk and revenue growth matches net margin expansion at 12.5% year-over-year, the low Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 points to underlying financial weakness or declining fundamentals that may constrain future operational leverage.
Valuation metrics reflect aggressive market pricing relative to current performance, with a forward P/E multiple of 55.4x significantly elevated against typical sector benchmarks for firms exhibiting sub-10% ROIC. This premium implies the market is heavily discounting implied high-growth trajectories rather than relying on current earnings power or historical averages. The disconnect between the modest return profile and the steep valuation multiple suggests that investor expectations are anchored on potential future margin expansion or asset base optimization, creating a scenario where any deviation from consensus growth could precipitate a sharp re-rating downward given the limited cushion provided by current cash flows relative to price.
Insider activity over the past 90 days reveals $785,815 in net selling, introducing a potential risk factor that contrasts with the benign manipulation scores and steady top-line growth. This outflow may signal management's caution regarding the stock's rich valuation or concerns about future capital allocation efficiency, particularly given the reliance on leverage to drive returns rather than organic asset productivity. Collectively, these data points suggest a high-risk, high-reward profile where upside depends entirely on successful execution of growth strategies to justify current multiples, while downside protection is eroded by insider disposition and mediocre fundamental quality metrics like ROIC and F-Score.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like MDYG or VPU, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ORA shares regardless of ORA's individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to ORA through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in ORA to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If ORA (ORA) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with ORA. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 19 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ORA Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest ORA Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 19 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ORA Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does ORA convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
ORA converts -53% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 153% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-5.1%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 6,526 | $126.20 | $823,581.2 |
| 2026-05-05 | 7 | $114.70 | $802.9 |
| 2026-05-04 | 32 | $113.50 | $3,632 |
| 2026-04-23 | 8,244 | $107.00 | $882,108 |
| 2026-04-22 | 47,165 | $108.15 | $5.1M |
| 2026-04-21 | 50,833 | $111.70 | $5.7M |
| 2026-04-20 | 57,162 | $113.04 | $6.5M |
| 2026-04-14 | 65 | $112.28 | $7,298.2 |
| 2026-04-13 | 9,148 | $115.22 | $1.1M |
| 2026-04-09 | 184 | $113.48 | $20,880.32 |
| 2026-04-08 | 28 | $112.24 | $3,142.72 |
| 2026-04-02 | 509 | $113.64 | $57,842.76 |
| 2026-03-31 | 184 | $109.44 | $20,136.96 |
| 2026-03-30 | 8,479 | $112.00 | $949,648 |
| 2026-03-27 | 1,032 | $110.90 | $114,448.8 |
| 2026-03-26 | 1,167 | $110.70 | $129,186.9 |
| 2026-03-24 | 7,474 | $109.14 | $815,712.36 |
| 2026-03-23 | 331 | $106.42 | $35,225.02 |
| 2026-03-20 | 4,027 | $110.52 | $445,064.04 |
| 2026-03-19 | 29,900 | $107.50 | $3.2M |
| 2026-03-18 | 42 | $108.00 | $4,536 |
| 2026-03-03 | 11,094 | $107.15 | $1.2M |
| 2026-02-23 | 350 | $115.92 | $40,572 |
| 2026-02-20 | 4,081 | $120.05 | $489,924.05 |
| 2026-02-18 | 44,925 | $124.22 | $5.6M |
| 2026-02-17 | 69,932 | $118.19 | $8.3M |
| 2026-02-13 | 5 | $120.40 | $602 |
| 2026-02-09 | 2,136 | $123.15 | $263,048.4 |
| 2026-02-05 | 27,943 | $126.80 | $3.5M |
| 2026-02-04 | 5,883 | $129.71 | $763,083.93 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare ORA to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.