Consumer Cyclical

PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)

$88.18
+1.08%
$120.2B
Market Cap
8.9
P/E Ratio
0.03
Beta
Dividend Yield

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

At 8.9x earnings — a 75% discount to the sector average of 35.0x — PDD is in the lower valuation range.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The company exhibits robust capital efficiency with a 33.1% ROIC, significantly outpacing typical cost of equity benchmarks to generate substantial value creation. This high return is primarily driven by exceptional operating leverage rather than financial engineering or asset intensity; the DuPont decomposition reveals that an impressive 28.5% net margin and rapid revenue expansion are being converted into returns via a modest equity multiplier of only 1.61x, indicating low reliance on debt financing. While the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggests solid fundamental stability without recent distress signals, the Altman Z-Score of 3.2 places the firm in a gray zone between safety and potential distress, warranting close monitoring of liquidity trends despite the strong Beneish M-Score of -2.24 which points to low earnings manipulation risk.

Valuation metrics present a compelling divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at a 10.4x P/E multiple, the stock appears significantly compressed relative to its historical trajectory and implied growth rates given the 59% year-over-year revenue expansion. A DCF analysis suggests a fair value of $934, implying that current market prices may be pricing in persistent downside risks or expecting a material contraction in future profitability that contradicts the observed margin profile. The disconnect between such high growth and low multiples could reflect sector-specific headwinds not captured in standard valuation models, creating a potential mean reversion opportunity if fundamentals hold steady.

From a factor investing perspective, the stock displays mixed signals regarding its risk-adjusted performance characteristics. Although it has generated a positive annual Fama-French alpha of 0.45%, indicating outperformance relative to market benchmarks after adjusting for size and value exposure, this is counterbalanced by negative loadings on specific style factors. The weak profitability factor (RMW) score of -0.233 suggests the stock currently underperforms other high-quality growth peers in terms of risk-adjusted returns driven by earnings power, while its neutral stance on the HML value factor implies it does not offer a clear tilt toward undervalued large-cap stocks. These factor deltas suggest that while absolute alpha exists, the investment case relies heavily on mean reversion rather than consistent style-based outperformance.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

Valuation Context

8.9x
PDD P/E
35.0x
Sector Avg
-75%
vs Sector

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

28.5%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.78x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
1.61x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
35.9%
Return on Equity
✅ ROE driven primarily by strong profit margins — a sign of pricing power.

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✗ Miss
Est: $18.96
Act: $11.41
-39.8%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $14.80
Act: $22.07
+49.1%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $16.57
Act: $21.08
+27.2%
Q1
✗ Miss
Est: $21.02
Act: $17.69
-15.8%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Risk Profile

68.3%
Annual Volatility
0.23
Sharpe (1Y)
0.37
Sharpe (3Y)
-43.9%
Max Drawdown (3Y)
-82.8%
Max Drawdown (5Y)

Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure

Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.

0.85
Market β
Mkt-RF
-0.074
Size (SMB)
Neutral
-0.069
Value (HML)
Neutral
-0.233
Profit (RMW)
Weak
-0.152
Invest (CMA)
Aggressive
Alpha (annual): +0.45%
R²: 8.1%of variance explained by 5 factors

Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.

Fundamentals

6.6
Forward P/E
0.62
PEG Ratio
1.98
Price/Book
8M
Avg Volume
$139.41
52W High
$81.56
52W Low
11%
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$2.5B
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding PDD
0.26%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$970B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like MCHI or VWO, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell PDD shares regardless of PDD Holdings Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to PDD through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in PDD Holdings Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

PDD Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
PDDEpicenterVXUSETFVWOETFVEUETF2330Unknown0700.HKLow Risk9988.HKLow Risk9988Unknown700Unknown
PDD Price Drop (%)0

If PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (2330) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with PDD. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 8 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

PDD Ownership Dynamics

Passive funds hold 1 in every 56 PDD shares, reducing daily market volatility.

Ticker
PDD
Total Shares
1.4B
ETF Lock-Up
1.8%
Display Mode
Total Float Impact
1.8%Locked Float

PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.6% of the MCHI (MCHI) and 0.6% of the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund (VWO). Across 7 tracked ETFs, approximately 25M shares (1.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.

Float lock-up computed from 7 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

PDD Institutional Volume Profile

252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.

TICKER
PDD
PRICE
$88.18
FLOOR (POC)
$103.25
STRENGTH
High
$83$86$89$88.18$92$95$976%$10010%$103POC 14%$10610%$109$112$115$118$121$124$126$129$132$135$138
Focus Zone
Point of Control (POC) Support (below price) Resistance (above price) Current Price

The highest-volume price zone for PDD Holdings Inc. over the past year sits near $103.25 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $88.18 sits 14.6% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.

Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-074,276$102.31$437,477.56
2026-04-3033,127$97.67$3.2M
2026-04-20700$104.79$73,353
2026-04-1569$102.10$7,044.9
2026-04-1315$100.17$1,502.55
2026-04-103,900$100.57$392,223
2026-04-073,324$100.91$335,424.84
2026-04-06568$100.87$57,294.16
2026-04-024,698$101.78$478,162.44
2026-03-3121$98.42$2,066.82
2026-03-27144,138$100.62$14.5M
2026-03-26333,643$102.61$34.2M
2026-03-2423,061$96.25$2.2M
2026-03-2342,398$96.19$4.1M
2026-03-2013,694$97.43$1.3M
2026-03-1917,605$100.72$1.8M
2026-03-16100$102.65$10,265
2026-03-0949,128$101.97$5.0M
2026-03-02100$103.73$10,373
2026-02-19157,689$102.92$16.2M
2026-02-1345$100.22$4,509.9
2026-02-0274,078$101.05$7.5M
2026-01-21103,105$104.46$10.8M
2026-01-2076,567$106.76$8.2M
2026-01-1223,696$120.55$2.9M
2026-01-095,334$121.60$648,614.4
2026-01-07124,086$122.66$15.2M
2026-01-061,744$119.12$207,745.28
2026-01-0213,678$113.39$1.6M
2025-12-2927,294$115.01$3.1M

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Price Correlations

Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.

Peer252-Day (1Y)126-Day (6M)Direction
WTGXXNaNNaN
DD0.4130.475Moderate
TSM0.4050.509Moderate
SWK0.4020.397Moderate
MPWR0.3950.496Moderate
TEL0.3810.441Moderate
APTV0.3790.387Moderate
SKY0.3660.188Moderate
ASML0.3640.524Moderate
USN0705921000.3630.524Moderate

Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.

Compare PDD to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.