SFM (SFM)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 4.5. Beneish M-Score of -1.59 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency demonstrated by a 16.6% ROIC suggests the company generates returns significantly above typical cost of equity thresholds, indicating robust fundamental quality. This profitability is underpinned by strong operational leverage rather than financial engineering; while specific WACC data is absent to calculate the exact spread, the high gross margin of 38.8% combined with a net margin of 5.9% and revenue growth of 14.1% points to effective pricing power and volume expansion driving earnings. The DuPont decomposition implicitly favors asset turnover and operational margins over excessive leverage, as evidenced by an Altman Z-Score of 4.5 which signals low bankruptcy risk. Furthermore, the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 reflects a solid financial trend with improving profitability or balance sheet strength, while a Beneish M-Score of -1.59 provides quantitative assurance that earnings are not being manipulated through aggressive accounting practices.
Valuation metrics currently present a divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at 14.5x forward earnings, the stock appears priced below historical averages for growth-oriented firms with similar revenue expansion rates of 14.1%, suggesting potential undervaluation relative to its own trajectory. More notably, the DCF model implies a fair value of $175 per share; if this target is significantly higher than current market prices, it indicates that the market may be discounting future cash flow assumptions or applying overly conservative growth rates compared to the demonstrated 14% revenue expansion. This gap between implied intrinsic value and realized trading price warrants scrutiny regarding whether expectations are anchored too low given the company's margin profile and capital efficiency.
No specific risk factor deltas, insider transaction data, or Fama-French alpha statistics were provided in the dataset to further refine the risk-reward assessment. Consequently, while the fundamental metrics suggest a resilient business with efficient capital deployment and reasonable valuation gaps relative to DCF models, the absence of volatility measures or institutional sentiment indicators prevents a complete characterization of short-term price dynamics or systematic risk exposure within broader market factors.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $213 | $157 | $123 |
| 3% | $250 | $175 | $134 |
| 4% | $305 | $199 | $147 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $175 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XRT or VDC, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell SFM shares regardless of SFM's individual fundamentals. We estimate $513M of passive capital is structurally linked to SFM through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on SFM's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in SFM to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If SFM (SFM) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Walmart Inc. (WMT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with SFM. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 13 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
SFM Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest SFM Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 14 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
SFM Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does SFM convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
SFM converts 47% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 53% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 3 | $88.27 | $264.81 |
| 2026-05-13 | 134 | $86.89 | $11,643.26 |
| 2026-05-12 | 61 | $81.58 | $4,976.38 |
| 2026-05-11 | 1,794 | $82.83 | $148,597.02 |
| 2026-05-08 | 214 | $81.01 | $17,336.14 |
| 2026-05-07 | 166 | $78.26 | $12,991.16 |
| 2026-05-04 | 971 | $81.19 | $78,835.49 |
| 2026-05-01 | 10,555 | $81.85 | $863,926.75 |
| 2026-04-30 | 49,753 | $71.13 | $3.5M |
| 2026-04-28 | 11,786 | $71.62 | $844,113.32 |
| 2026-04-24 | 765 | $72.55 | $55,500.75 |
| 2026-04-22 | 66 | $75.29 | $4,969.14 |
| 2026-04-06 | 17,260 | $77.54 | $1.3M |
| 2026-03-27 | 1,906 | $77.27 | $147,276.62 |
| 2026-03-25 | 1,144 | $75.65 | $86,543.6 |
| 2026-03-23 | 25,518 | $81.80 | $2.1M |
| 2026-03-20 | 10 | $84.52 | $845.2 |
| 2026-03-10 | 35 | $77.79 | $2,722.65 |
| 2026-02-24 | 1,755 | $71.50 | $125,482.5 |
| 2026-02-23 | 9,094 | $67.48 | $613,663.12 |
| 2026-02-20 | 11,226 | $67.85 | $761,684.1 |
| 2026-02-17 | 108 | $68.96 | $7,447.68 |
| 2026-02-04 | 1,166 | $68.11 | $79,416.26 |
| 2026-01-30 | 70 | $70.66 | $4,946.2 |
| 2026-01-28 | 9 | $70.89 | $638.01 |
| 2026-01-22 | 466,191 | $71.32 | $33.2M |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,406 | $78.59 | $110,497.54 |
| 2026-01-14 | 12,230 | $81.06 | $991,363.8 |
| 2025-12-31 | 783 | $80.15 | $62,757.45 |
| 2025-12-23 | 650 | $80.25 | $52,162.5 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare SFM to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.