Financial Services / Asset Management

State Street Corporation (STT)

$159.78
-0.01%
$43.1B
Market Cap
15.8
P/E Ratio
1.46
Beta
2.16%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 6/9Altman Z 0.2 Distress

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

STT trades at 15.8x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 19.2x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 0.2. DCF fair value of $446 implies 215% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive
Market Price
$159.78
Fair Value
$441
Implied Upside
+175.9%
$441IMPLIED FAIR VALUEUNDERVALUEDOVERUNDER
Growth Rate (Y1–5)-5%
-10%20%50%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.6%
5%12.5%20%

5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.

Reverse DCFMarket-Implied
-20.0%annual FCF growth priced in at $159.78

The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 8% YoY revenue.

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →7.6%9.6%11.6%
2%$495$423$381
3%$542$446$394
4%$615$476$410

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $159.78.

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $446 (+214.6%). Not investment advice.

Valuation Context

15.8x
STT P/E
19.2x
Sector Avg
19.0x
5Y Avg P/E
-18%
vs Sector

Currently trading 22% below its 5-year average P/E of 19.0x.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Technical Setup

AI Generated

Steady State Street (STT) is trading below its 50-day moving average but above the 200-day line, suggesting near-term weakness against recent highs while maintaining a longer-term support level. The RSI at 42.3 indicates that momentum is currently neutral to bearish, leaning towards weaker buying pressure as it stays below the midpoint of 50.

RSI (14)
SMA 50
SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

6/9
Piotroski F-Score
Average — mixed operational signals
0.2
Altman Z-Score
Distress Zone — below 1.8 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.

Profitability & Value Creation

21.1%
Net Margin
9.6%
WACC
+8.1%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.8B
Free Cash Flow
10%
FCF Payout Ratio

✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

21.1%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.04x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
13.15x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
10.6%
Return on Equity
⚠️ High equity multiplier — ROE is being amplified by leverage, not operational excellence.

Balance Sheet Health

12.15x
Debt / Equity

Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)

Net Insider Flow
-$8M
Net Selling
1
Buy Transactions
5
Sale Transactions
2026-03-19GORDON SUSAN M.Grant324 shares
2026-03-11PLANSKY JOHNSold 4/8 qtrsSale$2M
2026-03-05PORTER BRIAN JBuy$312,475
2026-03-02O'HANLEY RONALD P.Sold 3/8 qtrsSale$4M
2026-02-26SCHAEFER ELIZABETHSold 3/8 qtrsGrant4,216 shares

Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $2.01
Act: $2.04
+1.7%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $2.36
Act: $2.53
+7.1%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $2.65
Act: $2.78
+5.0%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $2.84
Act: $2.97
+4.7%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Dividend History

$0.8400
Latest Dividend
$3.12
2025 Total
+45.8%
YoY Growth
Annual Dividends per Share
$1.10
2016
$1.60
2017
$1.78
2018
$1.98
2019
$2.08
2020
$2.18
2021
$2.40
2022
$2.64
2023
$2.14
2024
$3.12
2025
$1.68
2026
DateAmountChange
2026-04-01$0.84000.0%
2026-01-02$0.84000.0%
2025-10-01$0.8400+10.5%
2025-07-01$0.76000.0%
2025-04-01$0.76000.0%
2025-01-02$0.76000.0%
2024-10-01$0.7600+10.1%
2024-07-01$0.69000.0%
2024-03-28$0.69000.0%
2023-12-29$0.69000.0%
2023-09-29$0.6900+9.5%
2023-06-30$0.63000.0%
Stock Splits
2001-05-31: 2:11997-05-29: 2:11992-05-14: 2:11986-08-06: 2:11985-08-16: 2:11983-05-19: 2:11982-05-20: 2:1

Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.

Risk Profile

28.4%
Annual Volatility
2.19
Sharpe (1Y)
-18.2%
Max Drawdown (5Y)

Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure

Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.

1.28
Market β
Mkt-RF
+0.043
Size (SMB)
Neutral
+0.978
Value (HML)
Value tilt
-0.399
Profit (RMW)
Weak
-0.098
Invest (CMA)
Neutral
Alpha (annual): +7.92%
R²: 71.2%of variance explained by 5 factors

Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.

Fundamentals

11.3
Forward P/E
1.06
PEG Ratio
1.79
Price/Book
2M
Avg Volume
$159.31
52W High
$94.72
52W Low
101%
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$6.0B
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding STT
0.09%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$6.4T
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like VOE or XLF, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell STT shares regardless of State Street Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $6.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to STT through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in State Street Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

STT Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
STTEpicenterVTIETFVOOETFIVVETFBRK.BUnknownJPMHigh RiskJPMHigh RiskBRK.BUnknownVLow Risk
STT Price Drop (%)0

If State Street Corporation (STT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC CL B (BRK.B) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with STT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

STT Ownership Dynamics

Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 STT shares, reducing daily market volatility.

Ticker
STT
Total Shares
277M
ETF Lock-Up
15.1%
Display Mode
Total Float Impact
15.1%Locked Float

State Street Corporation (STT) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.7% of the VOE (VOE) and 0.6% of the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 42M shares (15.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.

Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

STT Institutional Volume Profile

252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.

TICKER
STT
PRICE
$159.78
FLOOR (POC)
$111.74
STRENGTH
High
$94$98$101$105$10810%$112POC 13%$11512%$119$1226%$1268%$12912%$1328%$136$139$143$146$150$153$157$160$159.78
Focus Zone
Point of Control (POC) Support (below price) Resistance (above price) Current Price

The highest-volume price zone for State Street Corporation over the past year sits near $111.74 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $159.78 trades 43.0% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.

Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-1459,581$151.58$9.0M
2026-04-229$153.57$1,382.13
2026-04-202,561$145.43$372,446.23
2026-04-153$141.78$425.34
2026-04-10236$138.49$32,683.64
2026-03-2714,199$125.66$1.8M
2026-03-2660,848$126.92$7.7M
2026-03-254,976$126.28$628,369.28
2026-03-039,525$129.46$1.2M
2026-02-271,017$132.27$134,518.59
2026-02-0534,421$132.03$4.5M
2026-01-233,221$128.46$413,769.66
2026-01-223,221$126.91$408,777.11
2026-01-212,946$125.31$369,163.26
2026-01-161,603$136.29$218,472.87
2026-01-14197$132.81$26,163.57
2026-01-1269$132.57$9,147.33
2026-01-0240$129.01$5,160.4
2025-12-1670$128.95$9,026.5
2025-12-1553$127.67$6,766.51
2025-12-1243$129.60$5,572.8
2025-12-0259$118.12$6,969.08
2025-12-019$119.02$1,071.18
2025-11-0415,823$116.69$1.8M
2025-10-21315$115.29$36,316.35
2025-10-171$112.95$112.95
2025-10-14113,784$114.19$13.0M
2025-10-07311$116.90$36,355.9
2025-10-061,364$116.38$158,742.32
2025-10-031,471$115.12$169,341.52

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Price Correlations

Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.

Peer252-Day (1Y)126-Day (6M)Direction
WTGXXNaNNaN
NTRS0.7550.813High co-movement
BK0.7540.820High co-movement
MS0.7260.732High co-movement
BLK0.7130.641High co-movement
ASB0.7090.665High co-movement
CFG0.7040.665High co-movement
USB0.7030.653High co-movement
KEY0.7000.679High co-movement
WFC0.6970.633Moderate

Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.

Compare STT to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.