Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicSTX trades at 83.3x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 65.0x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 8.6 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $6 implies 99% downside based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -1.64 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics present a stark dichotomy between operational efficiency and capital structure. While the company generates robust free cash flow, evidenced by a 38.9% revenue expansion and an ROIC-WACC spread of +12.6%, this value is severely distorted by extreme leverage; the equity multiplier sits at -17.71x, driving DuPont ROE to -324.3%. Despite these structural red flags—specifically the negative book equity—the Piotroski F-Score remains high at 7/9 and Altman Z-Score is a healthy 7.2, suggesting strong balance sheet liquidity relative to liabilities despite the accounting anomaly of inverted leverage. The Beneish M-Score of -1.64 further supports earnings quality, yet the Profitability Factor (RMW) registers as weak (-0.151), indicating that recent returns are not being rewarded by factor models likely due to the equity dilution effects inherent in such high gearing.
Valuation metrics reveal a significant disconnect between current market pricing and intrinsic value assumptions. The stock trades at 48.6x earnings, implying an aggressive growth trajectory that is mathematically unsustainable given the DCF fair value of $6, which suggests -98.5% downside from current levels based on a projected ten-year FCF growth rate of just 40.3%. This massive valuation gap indicates the market is pricing in perpetual hyper-growth or ignoring the capital structure risks entirely to capture the revenue momentum. The negative Value Factor (HML) confirms that value-oriented models do not currently favor this high-beta, highly leveraged profile, leaving the premium exposure solely to growth expectations rather than asset backing.
Risk assessment highlights a concerning divergence between fundamental scores and insider sentiment. Although Fama-French Alpha is exceptionally high at 46.80% annually and profitability indicators like margins remain intact, insiders have executed net selling of $44.86 million over the last ninety days. This substantial outflow contrasts sharply with the strong Piotroski score, potentially signaling that management views current valuation levels as excessive relative to future cash flow generation capabilities or is hedging against the risks associated with maintaining such elevated leverage ratios during a potential market correction.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 39% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 12.3% | 14.3% | 16.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $9 | $5 | $2 |
| 3% | $11 | $6 | $2 |
| 4% | $13 | $7 | $3 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $926.61.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=14.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $6 (-98.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 141% above its 5-year average P/E of 23.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | $0.7400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-24 | $0.7400 | +2.8% |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.7200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-25 | $0.7200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-19 | $0.7200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-13 | $0.7200 | +2.9% |
| 2024-09-23 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-20 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-20 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-20 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-25 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-20 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like DVY or VOT, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell STX shares regardless of Seagate Technology Holdings plc's individual fundamentals. We estimate $18.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to STX through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Seagate Technology Holdings plc to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with STX. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 18 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
STX Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 STX shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.6% of the iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY) and 3.5% of the VOT (VOT). Across 19 tracked ETFs, approximately 34M shares (15.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest STX Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 19 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
STX Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Seagate Technology Holdings plc over the past year sits near $136.25 (22% of 252-day volume). The current price of $926.61 trades 580.1% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (22% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
STX Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Seagate Technology Holdings plc convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Seagate Technology Holdings plc converts 39% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 61% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 12.6% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 537 | $834.01 | $447,863.37 |
| 2026-05-07 | 135 | $786.42 | $106,166.7 |
| 2026-05-05 | 96 | $738.54 | $70,899.84 |
| 2026-05-04 | 1,236 | $726.93 | $898,485.48 |
| 2026-04-30 | 9,451 | $643.30 | $6.1M |
| 2026-04-29 | 17,572 | $579.03 | $10.2M |
| 2026-04-23 | 1 | $579.88 | $579.88 |
| 2026-04-20 | 2,100 | $547.75 | $1.2M |
| 2026-04-16 | 1 | $519.60 | $519.6 |
| 2026-04-14 | 4,112 | $513.28 | $2.1M |
| 2026-04-13 | 294 | $503.13 | $147,920.22 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2 | $468.72 | $937.44 |
| 2026-04-06 | 5,840 | $429.36 | $2.5M |
| 2026-04-02 | 294 | $423.12 | $124,397.28 |
| 2026-03-31 | 10,774 | $362.43 | $3.9M |
| 2026-03-25 | 122 | $424.96 | $51,845.12 |
| 2026-03-23 | 1,216 | $411.23 | $500,055.68 |
| 2026-03-19 | 8,647 | $406.77 | $3.5M |
| 2026-03-18 | 318 | $421.09 | $133,906.62 |
| 2026-03-10 | 277 | $374.33 | $103,689.41 |
| 2026-03-09 | 200 | $352.80 | $70,560 |
| 2026-03-03 | 15 | $379.52 | $5,692.8 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2,499 | $411.11 | $1.0M |
| 2026-02-20 | 1 | $408.97 | $408.97 |
| 2026-02-10 | 10 | $425.00 | $4,250 |
| 2026-02-09 | 3,809 | $429.32 | $1.6M |
| 2026-02-06 | 808 | $405.45 | $327,603.6 |
| 2026-02-02 | 20,724 | $407.69 | $8.4M |
| 2026-01-30 | 9 | $446.57 | $4,019.13 |
| 2026-01-29 | 100 | $442.93 | $44,293 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| WDC | 0.877 | 0.883 | High co-movement |
| SNDK | 0.620 | 0.691 | Moderate |
| LRCX | 0.596 | 0.646 | Moderate |
| MU | 0.581 | 0.649 | Moderate |
| TER | 0.544 | 0.663 | Moderate |
| CAT | 0.539 | 0.566 | Moderate |
| KLAC | 0.527 | 0.570 | Moderate |
| AMAT | 0.518 | 0.593 | Moderate |
| MPWR | 0.504 | 0.627 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare STX to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.