T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 11.2x earnings — a 42% discount to the sector average of 19.2x — TROW is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 7.7. DCF fair value of $69 implies 27% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of T. Rowe Price Group reveal a capital allocation profile where the return on invested capital precisely matches the cost of equity, resulting in zero economic value creation beyond financing costs. Despite this neutral spread, earnings power is robustly supported by high profitability margins rather than asset efficiency or leverage; specifically, a net margin of 28.5% drives an ROE of 17.3%, while low turnover and minimal financial leverage constrain the equity multiplier to just 1.19x. Quality indicators present a mixed signal: the Altman Z-Score of 7.6 and Beneish M-Score of -2.37 suggest strong solvency and low earnings manipulation risk, yet the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates moderate financial health relative to peers. This divergence highlights an entity with stable balance sheet metrics but limited recent momentum in fundamental score improvements.
Valuation dynamics reflect a significant discount to historical norms and sector benchmarks, trading at a P/E ratio of 9.8x compared to the sector average of 18.0x. However, discounted cash flow analysis implies that current pricing embeds expectations for modest long-term free cash flow growth averaging only 6.1% over ten years, which translates into a fair value assessment suggesting downside potential rather than immediate reversionary upside. The market appears to be pricing in a scenario where the company's high margin structure cannot fully compensate for sluggish revenue expansion of just 3.1% year-over-year or the lack of superior capital efficiency relative to its cost of funds.
Risk-adjusted performance metrics further complicate the investment thesis, as the stock has generated negative alpha of -19.10% annually under Fama-French models, indicating it has underperformed when adjusted for market and size factors despite a clear value tilt evidenced by an HML score of 0.334. The neutrality regarding profitability factor exposure (RMW: 0.007) combined with zero insider flow over the last ninety days suggests no active management signaling or urgent capital deployment shifts are currently influencing shareholder sentiment.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 3% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 11.9% | 13.9% | 15.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $76 | $66 | $59 |
| 3% | $81 | $69 | $61 |
| 4% | $87 | $73 | $63 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $104.31.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=13.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $69 (-26.9%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 7% below its 5-year average P/E of 10.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | $1.3000 | +2.4% |
| 2025-12-15 | $1.2700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-15 | $1.2700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | $1.2700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $1.2700 | +2.4% |
| 2024-12-13 | $1.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-13 | $1.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-14 | $1.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $1.2400 | +1.6% |
| 2023-12-14 | $1.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-14 | $1.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-14 | $1.2200 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like DVY or NOBL, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell TROW shares regardless of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to TROW through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC (VZ) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with TROW. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 34 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
TROW Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 4 TROW shares, reducing daily market volatility.
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.4% of the iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY) and 1.2% of the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL). Across 34 tracked ETFs, approximately 48M shares (22.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This high passive lock-up reduces the effective active float, which can amplify daily price volatility and momentum signals.
ETFs with Highest TROW Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 34 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
TROW Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. over the past year sits near $103.02 (16% of 252-day volume). The current price of $104.31 trades 1.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (16% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
TROW Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. converts 48% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 52% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 383 | $102.88 | $39,403.04 |
| 2026-04-28 | 548 | $101.36 | $55,545.28 |
| 2026-04-22 | 166,252 | $99.14 | $16.5M |
| 2026-04-20 | 624 | $96.98 | $60,515.52 |
| 2026-04-17 | 5 | $95.75 | $478.75 |
| 2026-04-14 | 10 | $94.37 | $943.7 |
| 2026-04-09 | 82 | $91.81 | $7,528.42 |
| 2026-04-07 | 491 | $89.33 | $43,861.03 |
| 2026-03-31 | 2,150 | $89.03 | $191,414.5 |
| 2026-03-27 | 404 | $90.23 | $36,452.92 |
| 2026-03-25 | 22 | $88.80 | $1,953.6 |
| 2026-03-24 | 1 | $87.98 | $87.98 |
| 2026-03-23 | 9 | $86.19 | $775.71 |
| 2026-03-10 | 61,736 | $90.55 | $5.6M |
| 2026-03-09 | 324,705 | $90.40 | $29.4M |
| 2026-03-06 | 327,924 | $92.04 | $30.2M |
| 2026-03-05 | 353 | $91.99 | $32,472.47 |
| 2026-03-04 | 9 | $93.42 | $840.78 |
| 2026-02-20 | 675 | $94.36 | $63,693 |
| 2026-02-19 | 2,563 | $94.93 | $243,305.59 |
| 2026-02-11 | 23,219 | $96.64 | $2.2M |
| 2026-02-06 | 289 | $92.02 | $26,593.78 |
| 2026-02-03 | 3,736 | $106.65 | $398,444.4 |
| 2026-02-02 | 18,119 | $105.68 | $1.9M |
| 2026-01-21 | 7,454 | $103.68 | $772,830.72 |
| 2026-01-14 | 15,849 | $103.51 | $1.6M |
| 2025-12-12 | 222 | $104.96 | $23,301.12 |
| 2025-12-09 | 434 | $104.52 | $45,361.68 |
| 2025-11-21 | 281 | $97.31 | $27,344.11 |
| 2025-11-10 | 3 | $102.66 | $307.98 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| BEN | 0.669 | 0.621 | Moderate |
| BLK | 0.665 | 0.631 | Moderate |
| BX | 0.665 | 0.624 | Moderate |
| PRU | 0.655 | 0.643 | Moderate |
| MC | 0.650 | 0.609 | Moderate |
| IVZ | 0.643 | 0.704 | Moderate |
| KKR | 0.642 | 0.636 | Moderate |
| CFG | 0.627 | 0.508 | Moderate |
| COF | 0.625 | 0.607 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare TROW to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.