Woodward, Inc. (WWD)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicWWD trades at 41.8x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 9/9, Altman Z 9.3 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $145 implies 64% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedWoodward, Inc. exhibits exceptional fundamental quality characterized by a robust 12.0% ROIC and an unblemished Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, signaling strong financial health and operational stability. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the 17.2% return on equity is driven primarily by a healthy net margin expansion to 12.4%, supported by moderate leverage rather than aggressive asset turnover or debt utilization. Further corroborating this high-quality profile, the Beneish M-Score of -2.43 suggests earnings are unlikely to be manipulated, while consistent revenue growth of 7.3% year-over-year indicates sustainable business momentum within the industrials sector.
Despite these strong fundamentals, valuation metrics present a nuanced picture where the current P/E ratio of 46.7x sits slightly above the sector average of 44.2x, implying the market is pricing in growth expectations that exceed historical norms or peer multiples. A discounted cash flow analysis estimates fair value at $148, which serves as a critical benchmark against current trading levels to assess whether the premium valuation is justified by implied future growth rates. The divergence between intrinsic value calculations and market price requires careful consideration of forward-looking assumptions embedded in current pricing versus realized operational performance.
Risk assessment data introduces a counterbalancing signal through significant insider activity, with $13,999,614 in net selling over the last 90 days. While the company's Piotroski score and margin profile suggest underlying strength, this substantial outflow by insiders may indicate that management perceives current valuations as fully priced or anticipates near-term headwinds not yet reflected in consensus models. Investors must weigh the compelling operational metrics against these insider disposition signals to determine if the risk-reward asymmetry favors entry at present levels.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 7% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.8% | 10.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $175 | $132 | $104 |
| 3% | $201 | $145 | $113 |
| 4% | $238 | $163 | $123 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $344.70.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $145 (-63.6%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 57% above its 5-year average P/E of 31.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | $0.3200 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-19 | $0.3200 | +14.3% |
| 2025-11-20 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-21 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-22 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-20 | $0.2800 | +12.0% |
| 2024-11-21 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-22 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-21 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-16 | $0.2500 | +13.6% |
| 2023-11-17 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-11 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XAR or MDYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell WWD shares regardless of Woodward, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to WWD through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Woodward, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Woodward, Inc. (WWD) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CURTISS WRIGHT CORP (CW) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with WWD. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 15 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
WWD Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 10 WWD shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Woodward, Inc. (WWD) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.9% of the XAR (XAR) and 1.2% of the MDYG (MDYG). Across 15 tracked ETFs, approximately 6M shares (10.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest WWD Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 15 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
WWD Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Woodward, Inc. over the past year sits near $246.80 (15% of 252-day volume). The current price of $344.70 trades 39.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (15% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
WWD Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Woodward, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Woodward, Inc. converts 50% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 1.3% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 6,450 | $367.45 | $2.4M |
| 2026-05-11 | 1 | $369.93 | $369.93 |
| 2026-05-04 | 29 | $362.99 | $10,526.71 |
| 2026-04-10 | 2,454 | $392.53 | $963,268.62 |
| 2026-04-09 | 1,046 | $394.97 | $413,138.62 |
| 2026-03-23 | 1 | $353.35 | $353.35 |
| 2026-03-19 | 427 | $372.62 | $159,108.74 |
| 2026-03-13 | 99 | $361.78 | $35,816.22 |
| 2026-03-12 | 60 | $385.91 | $23,154.6 |
| 2026-03-03 | 56 | $402.56 | $22,543.36 |
| 2026-02-19 | 6,774 | $392.38 | $2.7M |
| 2026-02-09 | 26 | $388.50 | $10,101 |
| 2026-02-03 | 179 | $327.25 | $58,577.75 |
| 2026-01-23 | 26 | $333.00 | $8,658 |
| 2026-01-20 | 58 | $333.06 | $19,317.48 |
| 2026-01-06 | 53,697 | $322.09 | $17.3M |
| 2026-01-05 | 15,907 | $310.86 | $4.9M |
| 2025-12-22 | 40 | $305.97 | $12,238.8 |
| 2025-12-16 | 7,777 | $298.34 | $2.3M |
| 2025-11-21 | 21 | $258.58 | $5,430.18 |
| 2025-11-20 | 98 | $259.41 | $25,422.18 |
| 2025-11-18 | 127 | $259.86 | $33,002.22 |
| 2025-11-12 | 50 | $269.15 | $13,457.5 |
| 2025-10-14 | 4,193 | $253.51 | $1.1M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CRS | 0.628 | 0.634 | Moderate |
| ATI | 0.588 | 0.652 | Moderate |
| HWM | 0.555 | 0.567 | Moderate |
| CW | 0.542 | 0.554 | Moderate |
| WAB | 0.525 | 0.589 | Moderate |
| HEI | 0.519 | 0.566 | Moderate |
| TER | 0.507 | 0.586 | Moderate |
| PH | 0.507 | 0.536 | Moderate |
| EMR | 0.494 | 0.532 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare WWD to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.