Albemarle Corporation (ALB)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 2.7. DCF fair value of $34 implies 82% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Albemarle Corporation currently reflect a distressed operational profile characterized by value destruction rather than capital efficiency. With an ROIC-WACC spread contracting to -14.3%, the firm is actively eroding shareholder value, a condition mathematically reinforced by a negative DuPont ROE decomposition where net margins compressing to -9.9% are driving total returns down despite moderate asset turnover and leverage. While the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggests some resilience in financial strength relative to peers, this is overshadowed by significant distress signals; an Altman Z-Score of 2.5 places the company near the bankruptcy threshold, while the widening gap between gross margins at 13.0% and negative net income highlights severe operating leverage issues exacerbated by a -4.4% revenue decline.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence from historical norms and sector benchmarks, indicating that current pricing may not fully account for fundamental deterioration or could be mispricing recovery potential. The stock trades substantially below its DCF-derived fair value of $33, implying an 81.6% downside gap if the model's assumptions regarding future cash flows hold true against a backdrop of weak profitability factors (RMW: -1.002). However, this deep discount exists in contrast to an implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 18.9%, creating a tension between present operational reality and long-term growth expectations. Furthermore, while the stock exhibits a value tilt with a positive HML factor of 0.132, its profitability weakness suggests it may be over-weighted for quality-oriented strategies, even as insiders have executed $4.3 million in net selling over the last ninety days.
Risk-adjusted performance data reveals an anomalous historical alpha profile that warrants scrutiny against current fundamentals. Despite a Fama-French annualized alpha of 66.80%, which historically suggests superior risk-adjusted returns, this metric must be weighed heavily against the negative spread and declining margins currently driving the business model. The combination of insider outflows, proximity to financial distress thresholds, and significant valuation gaps relative to DCF models creates a high-risk environment where historical factor premiums may not translate into future capital appreciation if operational leverage continues to compress earnings further.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 10.3% | 12.3% | 14.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $41 | $31 | $24 |
| 3% | $46 | $34 | $26 |
| 4% | $52 | $37 | $28 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $171.77.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $34 (-81.8%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAlbemarle Corporation is currently trading at $171.58 within the Basic Materials sector, presenting a scenario where institutional positioning can be inferred through specific technical dynamics rather than direct price targets. The presence of Simple Moving Average crossovers suggests that larger market participants may be reevaluating their medium-to-long-term allocation strategies relative to recent short-term momentum shifts. When such indicators align with significant volume trends, it often implies that sophisticated actors are either accumulating or distributing shares based on a divergence between perceived intrinsic value and current market sentiment. Volume analysis in this context serves as a critical filter for validating the strength of price movements; elevated trading activity accompanying price breaks typically indicates active institutional engagement rather than retail-driven volatility. If volume surges coincide with upward price action, it may signal that major entities are building positions anticipating future sector tailwinds, whereas declining volume during rallies could suggest a lack of sustained backing from large capital flows. The current price level acts as a focal point where these diverging signals converge, offering insight into whether the broader market consensus is shifting toward increased confidence or caution regarding commodity-linked equities. Ultimately, the interplay between moving averages and flow data provides a window into how institutional sentiment might be evolving without dictating specific directional outcomes. Observers should note that while technical patterns offer clues about capital deployment strategies, they do not guarantee future performance. The synthesis of these factors allows for an assessment of potential structural changes in ownership rather than prescriptive advice on entry or exit points
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | $0.4050 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-12 | $0.4050 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-12 | $0.4050 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | $0.4050 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.4050 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-13 | $0.4050 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.4050 | +1.3% |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-14 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-15 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like LIT or IYM, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ALB shares regardless of Albemarle Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $3.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to ALB through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Albemarle Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Albemarle Corporation (ALB) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Rio Tinto PLC ADR (RIO) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with ALB. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 28 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ALB Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 ALB shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Albemarle Corporation (ALB) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 7.1% of the LIT (LIT) and 2.6% of the IYM (IYM). Across 26 tracked ETFs, approximately 20M shares (17.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest ALB Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 26 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ALB Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Albemarle Corporation over the past year sits near $82.32 (17% of 252-day volume). The current price of $171.77 trades 108.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (17% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ALB Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Albemarle Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Albemarle Corporation converts 220% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-14.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 375 | $200.94 | $75,352.5 |
| 2026-05-12 | 67 | $209.99 | $14,069.33 |
| 2026-05-11 | 127 | $203.52 | $25,847.04 |
| 2026-05-07 | 3,318 | $192.61 | $639,079.98 |
| 2026-05-04 | 1,695 | $193.88 | $328,626.6 |
| 2026-05-01 | 662 | $196.70 | $130,215.4 |
| 2026-04-20 | 572 | $197.75 | $113,113 |
| 2026-04-14 | 259 | $185.43 | $48,026.37 |
| 2026-04-02 | 2,102 | $178.47 | $375,143.94 |
| 2026-04-01 | 2,031 | $179.53 | $364,625.43 |
| 2026-03-30 | 355 | $179.45 | $63,704.75 |
| 2026-03-27 | 396 | $174.50 | $69,102 |
| 2026-03-26 | 373 | $181.39 | $67,658.47 |
| 2026-03-25 | 9,478 | $177.06 | $1.7M |
| 2026-03-24 | 23,138 | $167.56 | $3.9M |
| 2026-03-19 | 2,063 | $165.83 | $342,107.29 |
| 2026-03-18 | 34 | $166.32 | $5,654.88 |
| 2026-03-17 | 1,069 | $162.44 | $173,648.36 |
| 2026-03-16 | 100 | $158.22 | $15,822 |
| 2026-03-13 | 1,583 | $163.89 | $259,437.87 |
| 2026-03-12 | 1,013 | $168.00 | $170,184 |
| 2026-03-11 | 228 | $166.54 | $37,971.12 |
| 2026-03-06 | 40 | $163.93 | $6,557.2 |
| 2026-03-05 | 115,690 | $168.35 | $19.5M |
| 2026-03-04 | 142,561 | $164.73 | $23.5M |
| 2026-03-02 | 400 | $178.67 | $71,468 |
| 2026-02-26 | 3,996 | $195.87 | $782,696.52 |
| 2026-02-23 | 1,864 | $168.42 | $313,934.88 |
| 2026-02-19 | 32 | $171.22 | $5,479.04 |
| 2026-02-18 | 464 | $168.92 | $78,378.88 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| SQM | 0.810 | 0.807 | High co-movement |
| BHP | 0.500 | 0.525 | Moderate |
| RIO | 0.497 | 0.534 | Moderate |
| FCX | 0.462 | 0.575 | Moderate |
| DD | 0.412 | 0.353 | Moderate |
| AA | 0.410 | 0.412 | Moderate |
| CMI | 0.388 | 0.382 | Moderate |
| CMC | 0.385 | 0.407 | Moderate |
| CLF | 0.377 | 0.368 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ALB to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.