Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFCX trades at 34.8x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 36.7x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 3.2. DCF fair value of $13 implies 80% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. present a capital allocation challenge, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -2.5%, indicating that current returns on invested capital fail to cover the cost of financing. While the DuPont decomposition reveals a healthy net margin of 8.5% and moderate leverage at 1.89x times equity, the low asset turnover of 0.45x constrains overall ROE to just 7.2%. Qualitative indicators offer conflicting signals; the company maintains a strong Beneish M-Score of -2.25, suggesting minimal earnings manipulation risk and a solid Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 reflecting operational stability, yet this is counterbalanced by an Altman Z-Score of 2.9 that flags potential distress in the current liquidity environment.
Valuation metrics suggest significant divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. The stock trades at a P/E multiple of 40.4x, which remains slightly below the sector average of 41.0x despite sluggish revenue growth of only 1.8% year-over-year. However, discounted cash flow analysis points to a stark discrepancy, with a fair value estimate of $14 implying -76.5% downside from current levels based on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 34.2%. This aggressive growth assumption may be difficult to sustain given the weak profitability factor score (RMW) of -0.690, which highlights deteriorating earnings quality relative to peers.
Risk-adjusted performance data reveals a complex picture for long-term holders. Although the stock exhibits a substantial Fama-French alpha of 34.63% annually and holds a slight value tilt with an HML factor score of 0.109, these factors are undermined by recent insider activity showing $35.8 million in net selling over the past ninety days. The combination of negative capital spreads, weak profitability relative to risk factors, and significant executive divestiture suggests that while the stock offers value characteristics, fundamental headwinds may limit its ability to generate sustainable excess returns compared to broader market benchmarks.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 11% | 13% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $16 | $12 | $9 |
| 3% | $18 | $13 | $10 |
| 4% | $20 | $15 | $11 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $71.72.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=13.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $13 (-80.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 20% above its 5-year average P/E of 37.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedFreeport-McMoRan Inc. is currently trading at $58.70 within the Basic Materials sector, presenting a snapshot of its immediate market positioning relative to moving averages and short-term momentum indicators. The current price level sits in close proximity to key trend lines, suggesting that the asset may be consolidating after recent volatility or testing support resistance zones typical for commodity-driven equities. Without explicit data confirming whether the price is decisively above or below specific moving average thresholds, the immediate trajectory appears balanced rather than strongly directional at this precise moment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) context remains ambiguous without a calculated value, yet in isolation, the stock's placement near major averages often signals a period where short-term momentum is neither aggressively bullish nor bearish. This neutral-to-fluctuating state implies that market participants are closely watching supply chain developments and copper price movements before committing to significant trend shifts. Observers should note that while the sector faces headwinds or tailwinds depending on broader economic conditions, FCX's technical profile currently lacks a definitive breakout signal, requiring further confirmation of volume spikes or sustained moves away from these equilibrium points to establish a clearer path forward for traders and analysts alike.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-15 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-15 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-15 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-15 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-15 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-15 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-15 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-12 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-11 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-12 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-13 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IYM or XLB, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell FCX shares regardless of Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $9.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to FCX through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Freeport-McMoRan Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde PLC (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with FCX. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
FCX Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 FCX shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 7.3% of the IYM (IYM) and 5.6% of the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 168M shares (11.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest FCX Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
FCX Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. over the past year sits near $41.44 (15% of 252-day volume). The current price of $71.72 trades 73.1% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (15% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
FCX Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Freeport-McMoRan Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. converts 12% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a low conversion rate suggesting heavy reinvestment. This may indicate a growth phase (building capacity) or structural capital intensity. The 88% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.8%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 4,250 | $67.16 | $285,430 |
| 2026-05-13 | 27,628 | $66.03 | $1.8M |
| 2026-05-12 | 648 | $64.37 | $41,711.76 |
| 2026-05-11 | 1,800 | $61.65 | $110,970 |
| 2026-05-07 | 658 | $60.89 | $40,065.62 |
| 2026-04-20 | 7,009 | $70.21 | $492,101.89 |
| 2026-04-15 | 24,950 | $68.27 | $1.7M |
| 2026-04-14 | 4,095 | $68.03 | $278,582.85 |
| 2026-04-13 | 12,914 | $67.80 | $875,569.2 |
| 2026-04-06 | 10,472 | $61.38 | $642,771.36 |
| 2026-04-02 | 35,443 | $61.20 | $2.2M |
| 2026-03-26 | 87,932 | $57.09 | $5.0M |
| 2026-03-24 | 9,709 | $54.94 | $533,412.46 |
| 2026-03-23 | 68,368 | $52.09 | $3.6M |
| 2026-03-06 | 587 | $62.66 | $36,781.42 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2,025 | $65.93 | $133,508.25 |
| 2026-03-04 | 7,504 | $65.57 | $492,037.28 |
| 2026-03-02 | 15,163 | $68.08 | $1.0M |
| 2026-02-27 | 51,174 | $68.38 | $3.5M |
| 2026-02-23 | 136,400 | $64.34 | $8.8M |
| 2026-02-19 | 1,000 | $62.55 | $62,550 |
| 2026-02-17 | 1,100 | $62.84 | $69,124 |
| 2026-02-09 | 960 | $60.67 | $58,243.2 |
| 2026-02-03 | 339,210 | $60.76 | $20.6M |
| 2026-01-30 | 133,102 | $65.13 | $8.7M |
| 2026-01-16 | 4,691 | $59.96 | $281,272.36 |
| 2026-01-15 | 91,300 | $60.35 | $5.5M |
| 2026-01-14 | 71,054 | $59.34 | $4.2M |
| 2026-01-13 | 2,500 | $58.71 | $146,775 |
| 2026-01-12 | 32,500 | $56.53 | $1.8M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| BHP | 0.645 | 0.793 | Moderate |
| RIO | 0.629 | 0.744 | Moderate |
| AA | 0.550 | 0.618 | Moderate |
| CENX | 0.489 | 0.478 | Moderate |
| CMI | 0.483 | 0.569 | Moderate |
| DD | 0.479 | 0.456 | Moderate |
| SQM | 0.474 | 0.572 | Moderate |
| LRCX | 0.474 | 0.582 | Moderate |
| CAT | 0.472 | 0.566 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare FCX to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.