Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicALNY trades at 75.7x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 65.2x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 6.0. DCF fair value of $56 implies 83% downside based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -1.95 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company exhibits a distinct divergence between high-growth revenue dynamics and traditional profitability metrics, driven primarily by leverage rather than operational efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that an equity multiplier of 6.29x is the dominant engine fueling a 39.8% ROE, this aggressive financial structure contrasts with relatively modest net margins of 8.5%, despite robust gross margins exceeding 80%. The Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and Beneish M-Score of -1.95 suggest reasonable fundamental quality without significant manipulation signals, yet the valuation framework presents a stark contradiction to recent performance.
Current market pricing at 136.8x P/E implies sustained hyper-growth that significantly overshadows the DCF model's fair value estimate of $64, which anticipates only 19.7% free cash flow growth over ten years and suggests an immediate downside potential of roughly 80%. This massive valuation gap indicates the market is pricing in a trajectory far more optimistic than current discounted cash flow models support, creating a scenario where historical multiples are detached from intrinsic value calculations derived from projected cash flows.
Risk-adjusted performance metrics further complicate the investment case, as negative loadings on both the Value factor (-0.294) and Profitability factor (-0.580) in Fama-French analysis highlight exposure to growth-at-a-price dynamics rather than quality value characteristics. Compounding this technical weakness is substantial insider selling activity totaling over $24 million within the last 90 days, which often signals management skepticism regarding current valuation levels or future execution risks relative to the stock's lofty price targets.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 65% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.9% | 9.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $70 | $49 | $38 |
| 3% | $88 | $56 | $42 |
| 4% | $123 | $67 | $46 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $286.12.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $56 (-83.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 50% above its 5-year average P/E of 92.4x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAlnylam Pharmaceuticals is currently trading at $297.45 within the healthcare sector, presenting a specific technical configuration for analysis. Without access to precise moving average values or Relative Strength Index readings in the provided dataset, a definitive assessment of whether price action sits above or below key trend lines remains incomplete based solely on these figures. The current valuation level alone does not inherently confirm bullish momentum or bearish pressure without comparative historical data points such as 50-day or 200-day averages to establish context for relative positioning. In the absence of specific RSI metrics, short-term momentum cannot be quantitatively evaluated regarding overbought or oversold conditions from this limited information set. The stock's placement within the broader healthcare industry suggests sector-specific dynamics may influence its trajectory, yet isolated price data points fail to reveal the underlying velocity or strength required for a robust trend determination. Observers must note that identifying whether the asset is in an uptrend or downtrend necessitates additional layers of technical analysis beyond the current snapshot. Consequently, any interpretation regarding future direction relies on assumptions not supported by the supplied numbers. The market price reflects immediate trading activity but lacks the comparative framework needed to confirm sustained momentum shifts or trend reversals definitively. Stakeholders would need further data, including historical volatility and indicator thresholds, to form a comprehensive view of the asset's technical health before drawing conclusions about its potential path forward.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IBB or XBI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ALNY shares regardless of Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $3.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to ALNY through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with ALNY. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 15 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ALNY Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 11 ALNY shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.8% of the IBB (IBB) and 1.1% of the XBI (XBI). Across 14 tracked ETFs, approximately 12M shares (9.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest ALNY Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 14 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ALNY Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. over the past year sits near $321.25 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $286.12 sits 10.9% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ALNY Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. converts 74% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 5.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 18,560 | $284.84 | $5.3M |
| 2026-05-11 | 1 | $295.05 | $295.05 |
| 2026-05-07 | 14 | $303.00 | $4,242 |
| 2026-04-24 | 15 | $313.79 | $4,706.85 |
| 2026-04-14 | 3 | $333.00 | $999 |
| 2026-04-10 | 598 | $321.28 | $192,125.44 |
| 2026-04-08 | 489 | $319.52 | $156,245.28 |
| 2026-04-07 | 486 | $330.34 | $160,545.24 |
| 2026-04-06 | 47 | $318.85 | $14,985.95 |
| 2026-03-31 | 450 | $316.09 | $142,240.5 |
| 2026-03-23 | 4,372 | $312.17 | $1.4M |
| 2026-03-19 | 3 | $314.80 | $944.4 |
| 2026-03-16 | 583 | $313.41 | $182,718.03 |
| 2026-03-03 | 14,083 | $325.07 | $4.6M |
| 2026-03-02 | 2,101 | $332.92 | $699,464.92 |
| 2026-02-12 | 1 | $322.28 | $322.28 |
| 2026-02-09 | 2 | $328.16 | $656.32 |
| 2026-02-02 | 30 | $338.06 | $10,141.8 |
| 2026-01-28 | 2 | $354.75 | $709.5 |
| 2026-01-27 | 22 | $361.35 | $7,949.7 |
| 2026-01-22 | 2 | $365.46 | $730.92 |
| 2026-01-21 | 1,126 | $355.53 | $400,326.78 |
| 2026-01-08 | 8 | $422.50 | $3,380 |
| 2025-12-31 | 1,887 | $397.25 | $749,610.75 |
| 2025-12-24 | 1 | $398.70 | $398.7 |
| 2025-12-22 | 9,337 | $400.23 | $3.7M |
| 2025-12-17 | 204 | $391.17 | $79,798.68 |
| 2025-12-12 | 150 | $412.63 | $61,894.5 |
| 2025-12-10 | 2 | $415.21 | $830.42 |
| 2025-12-09 | 767 | $430.02 | $329,825.34 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ARGX | 0.539 | 0.350 | Moderate |
| XYL | 0.356 | 0.225 | Moderate |
| META | 0.344 | 0.237 | Moderate |
| EBAY | 0.338 | 0.231 | Moderate |
| AMGN | 0.294 | 0.351 | Low correlation |
| MA | 0.265 | 0.238 | Low correlation |
| ATAI | 0.262 | 0.198 | Low correlation |
| IONS | 0.258 | 0.359 | Low correlation |
| ABBV | 0.252 | 0.182 | Low correlation |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ALNY to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.