Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 23.4x earnings — a 64% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — AMGN is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 1.9. DCF fair value of $264 implies 24% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedAmgen Inc. demonstrates robust fundamental quality, evidenced by a healthy 7.4% ROIC-WACC spread and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, indicating strong financial stability despite an Altman Z-Score hovering near the distress threshold at 2.0. The DuPont decomposition reveals that its exceptional 89.1% ROE is driven almost entirely by high leverage (Equity Multiplier of 10.46x) rather than operational efficiency or margin expansion, as asset turnover remains low at 0.41x while net margins sit comfortably at 21.0%. Beneish M-Score data further supports earnings integrity with a negative reading of -2.26, suggesting management is not manipulating reported figures despite the reliance on debt to fuel returns.
Valuation metrics present a divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value estimates; trading at a P/E multiple of 24.5x, the stock trades below the sector average of 30.8x yet still commands a premium relative to its implied long-term free cash flow growth rate of only 3.7% over ten years. A DCF analysis places fair value at $293, implying current market prices embed negative upside potential of approximately -16.8%, suggesting the market may be pricing in stagnation or higher discount rates than modeled. This valuation disconnect exists alongside a significant growth tilt (Value Factor HML: -0.306) and weak profitability factor signals (-0.332), indicating that while earnings power is recognized, future expansion expectations are muted within current valuations.
Risk-adjusted performance data reveals notable anomalies in the stock's historical behavior relative to standard factors. The annual Fama-French Alpha of 13.07% suggests significant outperformance unexplained by size, value, or profitability characteristics over the measurement period, contrasting sharply with negative loadings on both Value and Profitability factors which typically penalize such names. However, this technical alpha is currently offset by substantial insider activity, with $21 million in net selling observed over the last 90 days. Investors must weigh these conflicting signals: strong historical risk-adjusted returns against elevated leverage, modest organic growth drivers, and active executive divestiture.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 10% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.2% | 9.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $290 | $208 | $129 |
| 3% | $394 | $264 | $155 |
| 4% | $603 | $356 | $190 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $328.26.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $264 (-24.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 12% above its 5-year average P/E of 22.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAmgen Inc. is currently trading at $326.31 within the healthcare sector, presenting a specific technical configuration regarding its momentum and trend direction. The immediate assessment relies on interpreting price action relative to moving averages; however, without explicit data points indicating whether the current price sits above or below these key benchmarks, any definitive statement about long-term bullishness or bearishness remains speculative based solely on this snapshot. Similarly, while Relative Strength Index readings are often used to gauge short-term velocity and potential overbought or oversold conditions, no specific RSI value is provided in the available data to confirm whether momentum is accelerating or decelerating at this precise moment. The absence of concrete moving average relationships means that identifying a clear trend phase—whether the stock is in an established uptrend, downtrend, or consolidation—is not possible from these limited figures alone. Technical analysis typically requires observing how price interacts with dynamic support and resistance lines derived from historical data to determine if buyers are gaining control over sellers. In this instance, the current price level of $326.31 stands as an isolated point without context regarding its proximity to critical averages or oscillators that would illuminate market sentiment. Consequently, a comprehensive view of short-term momentum and trend strength cannot be fully synthesized from the provided information alone. Market participants must await additional data confirming the stock's position relative to its moving averages and specific oscillator readings before drawing firm conclusions about directional bias. The current technical picture remains incomplete regarding
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $2.5200 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-13 | $2.5200 | +5.9% |
| 2025-11-21 | $2.3800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-22 | $2.3800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-16 | $2.3800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-14 | $2.3800 | +5.8% |
| 2024-11-18 | $2.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-16 | $2.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-16 | $2.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-15 | $2.2500 | +5.6% |
| 2023-11-16 | $2.1300 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-17 | $2.1300 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IBB or DIA, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AMGN shares regardless of Amgen Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $31.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to AMGN through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Amgen Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Amgen Inc. (AMGN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ELI LILLY + CO (LLY) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with AMGN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 39 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AMGN Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 AMGN shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 7.5% of the IBB (IBB) and 4.1% of the DIA (DIA). Across 38 tracked ETFs, approximately 95M shares (17.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest AMGN Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 38 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AMGN Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Amgen Inc. over the past year sits near $291.07 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $328.26 trades 12.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
AMGN Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Amgen Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Amgen Inc. converts 48% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 52% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 7.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 6,714 | $331.70 | $2.2M |
| 2026-05-08 | 4,536 | $329.09 | $1.5M |
| 2026-05-07 | 186 | $331.11 | $61,586.46 |
| 2026-05-04 | 7,440 | $329.82 | $2.5M |
| 2026-04-28 | 6,709 | $340.18 | $2.3M |
| 2026-04-23 | 1 | $345.92 | $345.92 |
| 2026-04-17 | 1 | $349.39 | $349.39 |
| 2026-04-15 | 17 | $350.95 | $5,966.15 |
| 2026-04-07 | 5,100 | $342.57 | $1.7M |
| 2026-04-06 | 100 | $347.94 | $34,794 |
| 2026-04-02 | 15 | $353.28 | $5,299.2 |
| 2026-03-30 | 58 | $348.77 | $20,228.66 |
| 2026-03-27 | 1,542 | $353.16 | $544,572.72 |
| 2026-03-25 | 208 | $348.43 | $72,473.44 |
| 2026-03-24 | 63 | $349.77 | $22,035.51 |
| 2026-03-23 | 208,764 | $347.80 | $72.6M |
| 2026-03-19 | 259 | $351.48 | $91,033.32 |
| 2026-03-17 | 69,252 | $366.25 | $25.4M |
| 2026-03-13 | 28 | $367.79 | $10,298.12 |
| 2026-03-12 | 36,071 | $377.64 | $13.6M |
| 2026-03-09 | 19,437 | $369.53 | $7.2M |
| 2026-03-04 | 76,913 | $377.00 | $29.0M |
| 2026-03-02 | 13 | $388.16 | $5,046.08 |
| 2026-02-24 | 83 | $379.42 | $31,491.86 |
| 2026-02-23 | 47,448 | $374.75 | $17.8M |
| 2026-02-20 | 16,569 | $375.50 | $6.2M |
| 2026-02-17 | 20,993 | $369.19 | $7.8M |
| 2026-02-13 | 73 | $366.20 | $26,732.6 |
| 2026-02-12 | 7 | $366.58 | $2,566.06 |
| 2026-02-10 | 32 | $375.82 | $12,026.24 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| BMY | 0.598 | 0.513 | Moderate |
| PFE | 0.594 | 0.489 | Moderate |
| MRK | 0.568 | 0.458 | Moderate |
| ABBV | 0.526 | 0.380 | Moderate |
| GILD | 0.497 | 0.471 | Moderate |
| AZN | 0.468 | 0.345 | Moderate |
| LLY | 0.460 | 0.571 | Moderate |
| TMO | 0.459 | 0.249 | Moderate |
| DHR | 0.458 | 0.246 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AMGN to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.