Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 16.0x earnings — a 75% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — BMY is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 9/9) with Altman Z of 2.3. DCF fair value of $103 implies 77% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics reveal a company with exceptional balance sheet strength and earnings quality, underscored by a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and a negative Beneish M-Score that effectively rules out manipulation. The DuPont decomposition illustrates an ROE of 38.1% driven primarily by high leverage (Equity Multiplier at 4.87x) rather than operational efficiency, as asset turnover remains modest at 0.54x despite robust net margins of 14.6%. While the gross margin stands strong at 71.1%, indicating pricing power in pharmaceuticals, revenue growth has stalled slightly year-over-year at -0.2%. The ROIC-WACC spread of +7.4% confirms that capital allocation remains value-creating relative to the cost of equity, yet the Altman Z-Score of 2.3 suggests caution regarding long-term solvency given the high leverage ratio inherent in this profitability model.
Valuation metrics present a significant divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value estimates derived from discounted cash flow analysis. Trading at a P/E multiple of 17.2x, the stock is priced substantially below the sector average of 30.8x, implying the market may be discounting future prospects aggressively. The DCF model calculates a fair value of $143, suggesting implied upside of over 136%, though this relies on an assumption of negative ten-year free cash flow growth at -6.0%. This disconnect highlights that while current earnings yield appears attractive relative to peers, the valuation does not fully account for potential recovery in top-line momentum or shifts in discount rates specific to the healthcare sector.
Risk factors are nuanced by conflicting factor models; although the Fama-French alpha is negative at -1.71% annually and the profitability factor (RMW) scores weakly at -0.172, these metrics contrast with the pristine fundamental health indicators previously noted. The neutral insider flow over 90 days offers no directional signal from management regarding future capital deployment or strategic shifts. Collectively, the data suggests a scenario where deep valuation discounts coexist with structural concerns about growth trajectory and profitability dynamics relative to size-adjusted factors, leaving the risk-reward profile heavily dependent on whether revenue contraction reverses in subsequent periods.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -0% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 6.9% | 8.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $105 | $83 | $56 |
| 3% | $138 | $103 | $64 |
| 4% | $204 | $136 | $76 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $54.46.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=6.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $103 (+76.7%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 25% below its 5-year average P/E of 22.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current technical landscape for Bristol-Myers Squibb Company suggests a period of consolidation where larger market participants appear cautious. With the stock trading at $57.00, price action indicates that institutional players are likely waiting for clearer directional confirmation before committing significant capital to either side. The absence of aggressive volume spikes or definitive moving average crossovers implies that major funds may be in a neutral stance, balancing long and short positions rather than driving momentum in one direction. This lack of decisive movement often reflects an environment where sophisticated investors are assessing upcoming catalysts, such as regulatory approvals or earnings reports, before adjusting their exposure levels. Institutional positioning seems to favor observation over immediate action at these price levels. The stability around the $57 mark could signal that large holders view this range as a fair value zone for accumulation on dips while simultaneously capping upside through short covers if volatility increases unexpectedly. Without strong volume support breaking key technical thresholds, it remains difficult to determine whether institutions are building a base or distributing assets quietly. Consequently, the market structure points to a scenario where larger players are managing risk exposure rather than initiating new major trends, leaving the initiative in the hands of retail sentiment until further structural shifts occur in price and volume dynamics.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | $0.6300 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-02 | $0.6300 | +1.6% |
| 2025-10-03 | $0.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-03 | $0.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-04 | $0.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-03 | $0.6200 | +3.3% |
| 2024-10-04 | $0.6000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-05 | $0.6000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-04 | $0.6000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-04 | $0.6000 | +5.3% |
| 2023-10-05 | $0.5700 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-06 | $0.5700 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SCHD or MOAT, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell BMY shares regardless of Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $17.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to BMY through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Bristol-Myers Squibb Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ELI LILLY + CO (LLY) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with BMY. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 33 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
BMY Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 BMY shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.3% of the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) and 2.7% of the MOAT (MOAT). Across 33 tracked ETFs, approximately 311M shares (15.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest BMY Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 33 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
BMY Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Bristol-Myers Squibb Company over the past year sits near $45.55 (15% of 252-day volume). The current price of $54.46 trades 19.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (15% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
BMY Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Bristol-Myers Squibb Company convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company converts 84% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 6.4% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 103 | $56.59 | $5,828.77 |
| 2026-05-04 | 1 | $58.22 | $58.22 |
| 2026-05-01 | 6,526 | $60.59 | $395,410.34 |
| 2026-04-29 | 7,119 | $58.26 | $414,752.94 |
| 2026-04-23 | 5,060 | $58.80 | $297,528 |
| 2026-04-22 | 1,350 | $59.39 | $80,176.5 |
| 2026-04-20 | 16,428 | $60.17 | $988,472.76 |
| 2026-04-15 | 15 | $58.08 | $871.2 |
| 2026-04-14 | 15,100 | $58.06 | $876,706 |
| 2026-04-09 | 170 | $59.20 | $10,064 |
| 2026-04-08 | 529 | $57.67 | $30,507.43 |
| 2026-04-02 | 17,500 | $61.73 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-25 | 1,467 | $57.39 | $84,191.13 |
| 2026-03-03 | 18,998 | $62.34 | $1.2M |
| 2026-02-27 | 30 | $61.10 | $1,833 |
| 2026-02-26 | 1,118 | $61.30 | $68,533.4 |
| 2026-02-23 | 32,117 | $60.66 | $1.9M |
| 2026-02-18 | 33,995 | $60.35 | $2.1M |
| 2026-02-10 | 11,101 | $60.77 | $674,607.77 |
| 2026-02-09 | 46,097 | $61.99 | $2.9M |
| 2026-02-05 | 60,666 | $57.62 | $3.5M |
| 2026-02-03 | 89,666 | $55.89 | $5.0M |
| 2026-01-28 | 14,469 | $55.56 | $803,897.64 |
| 2026-01-20 | 65 | $55.26 | $3,591.9 |
| 2026-01-15 | 3,932 | $57.02 | $224,202.64 |
| 2026-01-09 | 29,408 | $55.90 | $1.6M |
| 2026-01-05 | 15 | $53.46 | $801.9 |
| 2026-01-02 | 5,625 | $53.94 | $303,412.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | 156 | $54.64 | $8,523.84 |
| 2025-12-26 | 1,473 | $54.71 | $80,587.83 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| PFE | 0.651 | 0.540 | Moderate |
| MRK | 0.624 | 0.452 | Moderate |
| AMGN | 0.598 | 0.513 | Moderate |
| ABBV | 0.547 | 0.415 | Moderate |
| AZN | 0.521 | 0.342 | Moderate |
| DHR | 0.489 | 0.279 | Moderate |
| A | 0.475 | 0.311 | Moderate |
| JNJ | 0.471 | 0.373 | Moderate |
| TMO | 0.450 | 0.172 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare BMY to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.