AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicABBV trades at 106.2x earnings — a 63% premium to its sector average of 65.2x — without a dominant ROIC-WACC spread. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 2.0. DCF fair value of $126 implies 39% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of AbbVie present a complex dichotomy between robust cash generation and distorted capital structure efficiency. While the Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and Beneish M-Score of -2.87 indicate strong financial health with minimal earnings manipulation risk, the DuPont decomposition reveals a severe leverage distortion driving an ROE of -130.9% through a negative equity multiplier of -41.50x; this suggests significant off-balance-sheet financing or minority interest complexities rather than operational weakness. Despite these structural anomalies, the business demonstrates genuine quality with revenue growing 8.6% year-over-year and maintaining healthy gross margins at 70.2%, supported by a positive ROIC-WACC spread of +1.7%. However, the Altman Z-Score of 2.2 places the firm in the grey zone regarding bankruptcy risk, warranting scrutiny on its long-term solvency amidst such extreme leverage ratios.
Valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in aggressive growth expectations that appear misaligned with current cash flow realities. The stock trades at a P/E multiple of 88.5x, substantially exceeding the sector average of 30.8x and implying an anticipated FCF growth rate of 1.6% over ten years; however, DCF modeling indicates a fair value of $162 with -25.4% downside from current levels. This steep premium implies investors are betting on future transformational catalysts that have not yet materialized in earnings power, creating a significant gap between intrinsic valuation and market price where traditional growth factors like RMW show weakness relative to the high multiple paid.
Risk-adjusted performance data highlights specific factor exposures that may constrain returns if macro conditions shift. The Fama-French alpha of 1.42% annually suggests historical outperformance unexplained by standard risk factors, yet this is counterbalanced by a negative Value Factor (HML) return of -0.173 and a weak Profitability Factor score of -0.209. Furthermore, insider activity over the last ninety days shows net selling totaling $10.7 million, which often signals management caution regarding near-term valuations or liquidity needs. Collectively, these indicators suggest an asset with high potential upside contingent on multiple compression relief and successful deleveraging, but currently exposed to significant downside risk if growth expectations fail to materialize relative to the elevated price tag.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 9% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.4% | 9.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $149 | $103 | $69 |
| 3% | $198 | $126 | $79 |
| 4% | $297 | $163 | $94 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $215.40.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.4%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $126 (-38.9%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 6% above its 5-year average P/E of 82.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current price level of $215.70 for AbbVie Inc. sits within a context where the interplay between sector-specific volatility and fundamental underpinnings dictates the trajectory of risk dynamics. While the healthcare sector often exhibits cyclical movements driven by regulatory shifts or patent cliffs, this specific data point suggests that momentum may be fragile rather than structural if it lacks support from broader market stability. A sharp deviation in price without corresponding volume confirmation could indicate a temporary liquidity imbalance rather than a sustained trend change, highlighting how quickly technical setups can reverse when the fundamental backdrop does not reinforce the current direction. In assessing risk exposure, one must consider that the absence of additional volatility metrics or drawdown history prevents a definitive classification of whether recent moves represent a healthy consolidation or an impending correction. The isolation of this single price figure obscures the depth of potential downside protection and limits insight into how resilient the asset is against external shocks common in pharmaceutical equities. Consequently, while the market may be pricing in specific expectations at $215.70, the lack of corroborating technical indicators leaves the sustainability of any upward or downward pressure ambiguous, suggesting that participants should remain vigilant for signals that clarify whether this level acts as a robust floor or a precarious ceiling amidst shifting risk premiums.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | $1.7300 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-16 | $1.7300 | +5.5% |
| 2025-10-15 | $1.6400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-15 | $1.6400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-15 | $1.6400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-15 | $1.6400 | +5.8% |
| 2024-10-15 | $1.5500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-15 | $1.5500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-12 | $1.5500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-12 | $1.5500 | +4.7% |
| 2023-10-12 | $1.4800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-13 | $1.4800 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Smart Money Flow
Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares Change | % Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | +700 | +3.1% | Increased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | -402,600 | -28.1% | Decreased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | +16,153 | +113.7% | Increased |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | -1,852 | -0.3% | Decreased |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | +782,607 | +3934.1% | Increased |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | -6,800 | -23.2% | Decreased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | -246,480 | -94.5% | Decreased |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | -330,144 | -91.8% | Decreased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | +11,300 | +102.7% | Increased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | -456,400 | -24.2% | Decreased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | -928,071 | -100.0% | Exited |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | +72,238 | +12.1% | Increased |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLV or IYH, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ABBV shares regardless of AbbVie Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $51.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to ABBV through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in AbbVie Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with ABBV. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 38 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ABBV Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 ABBV shares, reducing daily market volatility.
AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 7.1% of the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) and 6.9% of the IYH (IYH). Across 37 tracked ETFs, approximately 244M shares (13.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest ABBV Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 37 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ABBV Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for AbbVie Inc. over the past year sits near $226.79 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $215.40 sits 5.0% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ABBV Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does AbbVie Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
AbbVie Inc. converts 101% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.8% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 21 | $205.03 | $4,305.63 |
| 2026-05-04 | 32 | $206.60 | $6,611.2 |
| 2026-05-01 | 259 | $211.32 | $54,731.88 |
| 2026-04-29 | 92,445 | $197.69 | $18.3M |
| 2026-04-22 | 47 | $205.12 | $9,640.64 |
| 2026-04-15 | 285 | $210.26 | $59,924.1 |
| 2026-04-06 | 2,378 | $208.84 | $496,621.52 |
| 2026-04-02 | 18,737 | $214.98 | $4.0M |
| 2026-03-31 | 424 | $213.12 | $90,362.88 |
| 2026-03-27 | 1,300 | $211.12 | $274,456 |
| 2026-03-25 | 176 | $205.20 | $36,115.2 |
| 2026-03-23 | 297,246 | $205.07 | $61.0M |
| 2026-03-20 | 2,910 | $206.23 | $600,129.3 |
| 2026-03-17 | 1,801 | $221.45 | $398,831.45 |
| 2026-03-16 | 61 | $219.68 | $13,400.48 |
| 2026-03-13 | 65 | $225.37 | $14,649.05 |
| 2026-03-05 | 24,213 | $236.19 | $5.7M |
| 2026-03-04 | 32,058 | $233.86 | $7.5M |
| 2026-03-02 | 483 | $232.08 | $112,094.64 |
| 2026-02-23 | 259 | $224.81 | $58,225.79 |
| 2026-02-17 | 100 | $231.50 | $23,150 |
| 2026-02-10 | 180,150 | $223.26 | $40.2M |
| 2026-02-09 | 1 | $223.43 | $223.43 |
| 2026-02-02 | 252 | $223.01 | $56,198.52 |
| 2026-01-29 | 2,250 | $218.67 | $492,007.5 |
| 2026-01-28 | 57,971 | $223.93 | $13.0M |
| 2026-01-21 | 39 | $214.04 | $8,347.56 |
| 2026-01-20 | 813 | $214.35 | $174,266.55 |
| 2026-01-16 | 1,548 | $216.75 | $335,529 |
| 2026-01-15 | 217,424 | $221.89 | $48.2M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)
Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | 1,030,200 | $224,058,198K |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | 802,500 | $174,535,725K |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | 669,784 | $145,671,322K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | 30,362 | $6,603,431K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | 23,000 | $5,002,270K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | 22,500 | $4,893,525K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | 1,432,800 | $327,380,472K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | 671,636 | $153,462,110K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | 29,300 | $6,694,757K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | 22,300 | $5,095,327K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | 19,893 | $4,545,352K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | 14,209 | $3,246,614K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q3 | 2,015,742 | $466,724,903K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q3 | 1,889,200 | $437,425,368K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q3 | 928,071 | $214,885,559K |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| BMY | 0.547 | 0.415 | Moderate |
| MRK | 0.528 | 0.339 | Moderate |
| AMGN | 0.526 | 0.380 | Moderate |
| PFE | 0.503 | 0.280 | Moderate |
| AZN | 0.465 | 0.275 | Moderate |
| DHR | 0.446 | 0.184 | Moderate |
| JNJ | 0.423 | 0.387 | Moderate |
| GILD | 0.411 | 0.415 | Moderate |
| REGN | 0.411 | 0.368 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ABBV to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.