Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 15.0x earnings — a 77% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — REGN is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 7.5. DCF fair value of $591 implies 21% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company demonstrates robust fundamental quality driven primarily by exceptional profitability rather than asset efficiency or leverage. A DuPont decomposition reveals that a 14.4% ROE is almost entirely fueled by an industry-leading net margin of 31.4%, while low asset turnover (0.35x) and moderate equity multipliers constrain growth potential from operational scaling. This high-quality earnings generation supports a positive capital allocation profile, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of +4.2% and strong solvency metrics including an Altman Z-Score of 7.6 and a Beneish M-Score of -2.55 indicating low manipulation risk; however, the modest Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 suggests limited recent improvements in financial strength or profitability momentum.
Valuation dynamics present a notable divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at an 18.4x P/E multiple significantly below the sector average of 30.8x, the stock appears discounted relative to peers, yet this compression is reinforced by a DCF analysis implying fair value at $673, which represents a -12.9% downside from current levels based on an assumed long-term free cash flow growth rate of only 5.1%. The market pricing likely reflects skepticism regarding the sustainability of revenue expansion, given that year-over-year sales grew merely 1.0%, contrasting sharply with the high margin environment.
Risk and reward factors further complicate the investment thesis through mixed signals on momentum and insider behavior. While the stock exhibits a positive Fama-French alpha of 2.96% annually, suggesting outperformance relative to size and value benchmarks, this is offset by neutral exposures in both the HML (value) and RMW (profitability) factors. Crucially, recent corporate governance data indicates $4.22 million in net insider selling over the past 90 days, a signal that management may be reducing exposure despite the attractive valuation gap between market price and calculated fair value.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 1% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.9% | 9.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $749 | $509 | $381 |
| 3% | $961 | $591 | $422 |
| 4% | $1387 | $716 | $476 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $602.92.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $591 (-20.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 12% below its 5-year average P/E of 20.4x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedRegeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) is trading below its 50-day moving average but above the longer-term 200-day moving average, indicating a potential consolidation phase. The RSI at 46.9 suggests that near-term momentum may be neutral to slightly bearish, without being overbought or oversold.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | $0.9400 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-20 | $0.9400 | +6.8% |
| 2025-11-20 | $0.8800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-18 | $0.8800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-20 | $0.8800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-20 | $0.8800 | — |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IBB or XLV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell REGN shares regardless of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $10.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to REGN through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ELI LILLY + CO (LLY) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with REGN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
REGN Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 REGN shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 6.7% of the IBB (IBB) and 1.2% of the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 15M shares (14.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest REGN Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
REGN Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. over the past year sits near $569.62 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $602.92 trades 5.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
REGN Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. converts 65% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 3.6% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 1,542 | $723.41 | $1.1M |
| 2026-05-11 | 1 | $714.89 | $714.89 |
| 2026-05-07 | 151 | $721.05 | $108,878.55 |
| 2026-05-04 | 4 | $701.42 | $2,805.68 |
| 2026-04-15 | 1 | $755.51 | $755.51 |
| 2026-03-30 | 14 | $737.71 | $10,327.94 |
| 2026-03-27 | 23 | $756.73 | $17,404.79 |
| 2026-03-25 | 10 | $741.69 | $7,416.9 |
| 2026-03-23 | 14 | $732.87 | $10,260.18 |
| 2026-03-19 | 1 | $744.12 | $744.12 |
| 2026-03-12 | 2 | $774.66 | $1,549.32 |
| 2026-03-05 | 112 | $787.50 | $88,200 |
| 2026-02-27 | 12 | $770.79 | $9,249.48 |
| 2026-02-19 | 13 | $792.16 | $10,298.08 |
| 2026-02-17 | 204 | $803.17 | $163,846.68 |
| 2026-02-12 | 2 | $778.97 | $1,557.94 |
| 2026-02-09 | 3 | $785.51 | $2,356.53 |
| 2026-02-04 | 3,890 | $759.18 | $3.0M |
| 2026-01-30 | 1 | $749.44 | $749.44 |
| 2026-01-20 | 14 | $733.04 | $10,262.56 |
| 2026-01-06 | 2 | $763.23 | $1,526.46 |
| 2025-12-31 | 128 | $773.94 | $99,064.32 |
| 2025-12-29 | 10 | $784.97 | $7,849.7 |
| 2025-12-18 | 44 | $749.79 | $32,990.76 |
| 2025-12-10 | 89 | $692.58 | $61,639.62 |
| 2025-12-05 | 116 | $722.80 | $83,844.8 |
| 2025-12-04 | 990 | $723.67 | $716,433.3 |
| 2025-12-03 | 902 | $742.00 | $669,284 |
| 2025-12-01 | 165 | $780.19 | $128,731.35 |
| 2025-11-28 | 722 | $784.61 | $566,488.42 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MRK | 0.440 | 0.385 | Moderate |
| COO | 0.419 | 0.240 | Moderate |
| AMGN | 0.417 | 0.470 | Moderate |
| A | 0.412 | 0.296 | Moderate |
| ABBV | 0.411 | 0.368 | Moderate |
| PFE | 0.407 | 0.305 | Moderate |
| BMY | 0.401 | 0.334 | Moderate |
| MTD | 0.384 | 0.223 | Moderate |
| DHR | 0.383 | 0.278 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare REGN to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.