Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 26.1x earnings — a 60% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — JNJ is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 4.0. DCF fair value of $134 implies 44% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this healthcare entity reveal a capital allocation machine generating substantial value, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of +11.4%, indicating robust returns well above the cost of capital. DuPont decomposition attributes its 32.9% ROE primarily to high net margins at 28.5%, supported by moderate leverage and asset turnover rather than aggressive efficiency gains or financial engineering. Despite these strong profitability metrics, credit safety is mixed; while the Altman Z-Score of 4.1 suggests a low probability of bankruptcy and the Beneish M-Score of -2.27 points to clean earnings quality, the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals deteriorating financial strength relative to peers. This divergence implies that despite generating high cash flows on invested capital, operational momentum or balance sheet dynamics may be weakening over time.
Valuation metrics present a distinct contradiction between market pricing and intrinsic models. The current P/E multiple of 22.0x sits below the sector average of 30.8x but trades at a 14% premium to its own five-year historical mean, suggesting the market is not aggressively discounting despite recent performance nuances. However, discounted cash flow analysis indicates significant downside risk, with a fair value estimate of $165 implying -32.5% upside from current levels based on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 8.2%. This disconnect suggests that while the stock appears relatively cheap compared to industry peers, internal valuation models price in substantial headwinds or lower future growth trajectories than currently reflected in share prices.
Risk factor analysis highlights a complex risk-reward profile driven by conflicting signals across different quantitative factors. The Fama-French alpha of 13.06% annually indicates strong outperformance relative to standard asset class benchmarks, yet this is counterbalanced by a negative profitability factor (RMW) score of -0.112 and a value tilt (HML) of 0.397, which may suggest the stock is losing its attractive valuation characteristics or facing margin compression pressures. Compounding these fundamental concerns, insider activity over the last ninety days shows net selling totaling $80.4 million, providing a behavioral signal that contradicts the strong historical alpha generation and warrants close monitoring for potential information asymmetry.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 6% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.7% | 9.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $166 | $114 | $82 |
| 3% | $216 | $134 | $92 |
| 4% | $315 | $166 | $106 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $222.89.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $134 (-43.6%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 11% above its 5-year average P/E of 19.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedJohnson & Johnson's current price of $234.34 presents a neutral-to-bullish technical configuration where institutional positioning appears stable yet potentially shifting toward accumulation. The alignment with the 50-day Simple Moving Average suggests that larger market participants are maintaining long-term conviction, as this metric often serves as a dynamic support level for established holders. However, the proximity to these moving averages indicates a period of consolidation rather than aggressive expansion, implying that institutions may be waiting for clearer directional momentum before committing additional capital or adjusting existing stakes significantly. Volume trends in conjunction with price action reveal a market where liquidity is present but not excessive, which typically characterizes phases where smart money evaluates entry points without triggering immediate volatility spikes. The absence of significant volume surges alongside the current price level suggests that major players are likely absorbing supply gradually rather than launching an impulsive rally or capitulation event. This behavior often precedes a breakout once external catalysts align with internal technical thresholds, allowing larger entities to establish dominant positions before broader retail participation intensifies. Ultimately, the confluence of these indicators points to a scenario where institutional sentiment remains cautiously optimistic but is currently in a holding pattern. The market structure supports continued stability at this price point while offering potential upside if volume expands to confirm a decisive move away from consolidation. Traders observing these dynamics should monitor whether subsequent price bars generate sufficient momentum to validate the current technical setup as either a continuation of an uptrend or a reversal into deeper value zones, depending on how
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | $1.3400 | +3.1% |
| 2026-02-24 | $1.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-25 | $1.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-26 | $1.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-27 | $1.3000 | +4.8% |
| 2025-02-18 | $1.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-26 | $1.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-27 | $1.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-20 | $1.2400 | +4.2% |
| 2024-02-16 | $1.1900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-20 | $1.1900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-25 | $1.1900 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
SEC Filings & Material Events
Full financial overview
Significant news
Latest earnings
Significant news
Significant news
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Smart Money Flow
Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares Change | % Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | -356,700 | -13.9% | Decreased |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | +34,846 | +100.0% | New Position |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | -658,800 | -73.4% | Decreased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | +18,500 | +68.0% | Increased |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | -994,600 | -63.9% | Decreased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | -617,074 | -47.0% | Decreased |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | -27,854 | -79.0% | Decreased |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | +895,800 | +49766.7% | Increased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | -401,819 | -23.4% | Decreased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | -9,800 | -26.5% | Decreased |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | -398,809 | -91.9% | Decreased |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | +557,200 | +55.7% | Increased |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLV or IYH, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell JNJ shares regardless of Johnson & Johnson's individual fundamentals. We estimate $69.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to JNJ through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Johnson & Johnson to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ELI LILLY + CO (LLY) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with JNJ. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 39 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
JNJ Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 JNJ shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 10.4% of the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) and 10.1% of the IYH (IYH). Across 36 tracked ETFs, approximately 310M shares (12.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest JNJ Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 36 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
JNJ Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Johnson & Johnson over the past year sits near $175.25 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $222.89 trades 27.2% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
JNJ Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Johnson & Johnson convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Johnson & Johnson converts 47% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 53% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 10.5% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 161 | $224.26 | $36,105.86 |
| 2026-05-07 | 5,684 | $224.62 | $1.3M |
| 2026-05-04 | 1,842 | $227.19 | $418,483.98 |
| 2026-04-29 | 2,110 | $227.79 | $480,636.9 |
| 2026-04-28 | 1,928 | $225.34 | $434,455.52 |
| 2026-04-24 | 645 | $230.65 | $148,769.25 |
| 2026-04-20 | 5,900 | $234.18 | $1.4M |
| 2026-04-17 | 2,628 | $234.54 | $616,371.12 |
| 2026-04-15 | 18 | $240.10 | $4,321.8 |
| 2026-04-14 | 2,419 | $237.96 | $575,625.24 |
| 2026-04-10 | 150 | $241.31 | $36,196.5 |
| 2026-04-08 | 15 | $238.41 | $3,576.15 |
| 2026-04-07 | 1,345 | $240.97 | $324,104.65 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,345 | $243.04 | $326,888.8 |
| 2026-04-02 | 35,878 | $244.12 | $8.8M |
| 2026-03-30 | 6,000 | $240.45 | $1.4M |
| 2026-03-26 | 7 | $239.93 | $1,679.51 |
| 2026-03-25 | 240 | $235.27 | $56,464.8 |
| 2026-03-17 | 75,420 | $243.19 | $18.3M |
| 2026-03-16 | 14,639 | $241.52 | $3.5M |
| 2026-03-11 | 1,893 | $243.71 | $461,343.03 |
| 2026-03-10 | 4,909 | $242.59 | $1.2M |
| 2026-03-05 | 13 | $245.30 | $3,188.9 |
| 2026-03-04 | 103,826 | $246.75 | $25.6M |
| 2026-03-03 | 221 | $248.56 | $54,931.76 |
| 2026-03-02 | 800 | $248.43 | $198,744 |
| 2026-02-27 | 20 | $243.47 | $4,869.4 |
| 2026-02-24 | 4,200 | $245.84 | $1.0M |
| 2026-02-23 | 800 | $242.49 | $193,992 |
| 2026-02-13 | 39 | $244.55 | $9,537.45 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)
Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | 2,212,900 | $540,921,276K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | 696,884 | $170,346,325K |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | 563,200 | $137,668,608K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | 238,800 | $58,372,272K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | 45,700 | $11,170,908K |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | 34,846 | $8,517,756K |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | 7,412 | $1,811,789K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | 2,569,600 | $531,778,720K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | 1,557,800 | $322,386,710K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | 1,313,958 | $271,923,608K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | 897,600 | $185,758,320K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | 35,266 | $7,298,299K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | 27,200 | $5,629,040K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q3 | 3,095,200 | $573,911,984K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q3 | 1,715,777 | $318,139,371K |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| BMY | 0.471 | 0.373 | Moderate |
| MRK | 0.469 | 0.447 | Moderate |
| PEP | 0.430 | 0.471 | Moderate |
| AMGN | 0.425 | 0.357 | Moderate |
| ABBV | 0.423 | 0.387 | Moderate |
| PG | 0.420 | 0.360 | Moderate |
| PNW | 0.416 | 0.230 | Moderate |
| EVRG | 0.406 | 0.285 | Moderate |
| AZN | 0.397 | 0.380 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare JNJ to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.