CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicCMS trades at 20.1x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 24.4x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 1.0.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of CMS Energy reveal a capital allocation challenge, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -1.6%, indicating that the company is currently destroying value relative to its cost of capital. Despite this negative efficiency metric, earnings per share are supported by significant leverage rather than operational intensity; the DuPont decomposition shows equity multipliers at 4.11x driving a net margin of 12.5% and asset turnover of only 0.21x. Financial health indicators present a mixed picture: while the Beneish M-Score of -2.41 suggests low earnings manipulation risk, the Altman Z-Score of 0.9 flags potential distress concerns, and the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 reflects moderate financial strength without recent deterioration or improvement trends.
Valuation metrics place CMS Energy slightly below its sector average at a P/E multiple of 22.3x versus 24.2x, yet this discount may not fully compensate for the weak profitability factor (RMW) of -0.165 identified in Fama-French analysis. The market appears to be pricing in modest growth expectations given the revenue expansion of 13.6% YoY, but the combination of negative value creation and low asset turnover complicates standard DCF fair value assumptions. While the stock exhibits a positive tilt toward the Value factor with an HML score of 0.446, this is counterbalanced by the persistent drag on returns from inefficient capital deployment relative to industry peers.
Recent insider activity over the last 90 days shows net selling totaling $1,426,211, which adds a layer of caution regarding management's view of near-term prospects despite the stock's historical alpha generation of 1.23% annually under Fama-French models. The convergence of negative ROIC-WACC spreads, insider outflows, and elevated leverage creates a risk profile where future returns depend heavily on whether asset turnover can improve or if leverage must be deleveraged to restore value creation capabilities.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 7% above its 5-year average P/E of 21.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCMS Energy Corporation is currently trading at $72.13, a position that warrants analysis relative to its moving average envelope structure to gauge mean-reversion potential. Without specific upper and lower band values provided in the dataset, the immediate implication relies on whether this price point represents an extreme deviation from the historical trend lines or sits comfortably within the statistical bounds of recent volatility. In utility sectors characterized by stable cash flows but slower growth trajectories, prices often gravitate back toward the central moving average after significant excursions, suggesting that if $72.13 marks a notable stretch away from the mean, corrective movement could be statistically probable as equilibrium is sought. The relative value stance here hinges on the distance between the current market price and the dynamic support or resistance zones defined by the simple moving averages. If the stock has recently broken out of the envelope's boundaries, it may indicate momentum that exceeds immediate statistical norms, potentially leading to a pullback toward the center line as overextended conditions normalize. Conversely, if the price remains entrenched within the channel, it implies ongoing alignment with established trends rather than an impending reversal. Observers should note how this specific valuation interacts with broader sector dynamics and historical volatility patterns to determine whether the current level offers value based on expected convergence or represents a continuation of existing directional bias without definitive signals for immediate course correction.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | $0.5700 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-17 | $0.5700 | +5.0% |
| 2025-11-07 | $0.5430 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-08 | $0.5430 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-09 | $0.5430 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-14 | $0.5430 | +5.4% |
| 2024-11-13 | $0.5150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-02 | $0.5150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-14 | $0.5150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-09 | $0.5150 | +5.5% |
| 2023-11-02 | $0.4880 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-03 | $0.4880 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLU or VPU, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CMS shares regardless of CMS Energy Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to CMS through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in CMS Energy Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CMS. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CMS Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 CMS shares, reducing daily market volatility.
CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.6% of the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) and 1.5% of the VPU (VPU). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 55M shares (17.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CMS Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CMS Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for CMS Energy Corporation over the past year sits near $71.28 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $71.85 trades 0.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CMS Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does CMS Energy Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
CMS Energy Corporation converts -54% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 154% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-1.8%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 41,866 | $73.31 | $3.1M |
| 2026-05-12 | 5,630 | $73.19 | $412,059.7 |
| 2026-05-08 | 371 | $73.96 | $27,439.16 |
| 2026-05-07 | 10,536 | $74.05 | $780,190.8 |
| 2026-05-06 | 25,856 | $74.93 | $1.9M |
| 2026-04-30 | 105 | $74.73 | $7,846.65 |
| 2026-04-23 | 67,812 | $74.98 | $5.1M |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $78.82 | $236.46 |
| 2026-04-08 | 23,123 | $78.59 | $1.8M |
| 2026-04-06 | 488 | $78.58 | $38,347.04 |
| 2026-04-01 | 7,887 | $77.58 | $611,873.46 |
| 2026-03-27 | 80 | $76.33 | $6,106.4 |
| 2026-03-26 | 362 | $75.44 | $27,309.28 |
| 2026-03-25 | 30 | $75.34 | $2,260.2 |
| 2026-03-09 | 402,691 | $77.16 | $31.1M |
| 2026-03-04 | 2 | $77.80 | $155.6 |
| 2026-02-13 | 81 | $74.73 | $6,053.13 |
| 2026-02-09 | 110 | $72.84 | $8,012.4 |
| 2026-02-04 | 6,432 | $71.80 | $461,817.6 |
| 2026-02-03 | 20 | $70.55 | $1,411 |
| 2026-02-02 | 4,155 | $71.49 | $297,040.95 |
| 2026-01-29 | 931 | $71.80 | $66,845.8 |
| 2026-01-22 | 17,568 | $71.69 | $1.3M |
| 2026-01-21 | 20,128 | $71.35 | $1.4M |
| 2026-01-20 | 34,057 | $71.68 | $2.4M |
| 2025-12-30 | 7 | $70.13 | $490.91 |
| 2025-12-22 | 3,369 | $69.17 | $233,033.73 |
| 2025-12-11 | 795 | $70.01 | $55,657.95 |
| 2025-11-24 | 450 | $74.04 | $33,318 |
| 2025-11-18 | 317 | $74.46 | $23,603.82 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| DTE | 0.859 | 0.838 | High co-movement |
| WEC | 0.836 | 0.792 | High co-movement |
| AEE | 0.835 | 0.822 | High co-movement |
| LNT | 0.818 | 0.815 | High co-movement |
| DUK | 0.797 | 0.792 | High co-movement |
| PNW | 0.761 | 0.711 | High co-movement |
| SO | 0.760 | 0.743 | High co-movement |
| ED | 0.746 | 0.693 | High co-movement |
| EVRG | 0.745 | 0.773 | High co-movement |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CMS to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.