Evergy, Inc. (EVRG)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicEVRG trades at 21.8x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 24.4x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 0.9.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Evergy, Inc. present a distinct capital efficiency challenge characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of -2.8%, indicating that the company is currently destroying value relative to its cost of capital. Despite this negative spread, the DuPont decomposition reveals an 8.3% ROE driven primarily by high leverage (Equity Multiplier at 3.31x) and robust net margins of 14.3%, rather than operational asset turnover which remains low at 0.18x. This capital structure is corroborated by a weak Altman Z-Score of 0.9, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk, while the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 suggests moderate financial strength and the Beneish M-Score of -2.77 points to low earnings manipulation risk; however, these scores must be weighed against the persistent negative return on invested capital that undermines long-term shareholder value creation.
Valuation metrics suggest a market premium over historical norms despite sector-relative affordability. The current P/E ratio of 22.6x trades below the sector average of 24.2x, yet it remains significantly elevated relative to the company's weak profitability factor (RMW) of -0.158 and sluggish revenue growth of just 1.9% year-over-year. This disconnect implies that current pricing may be anticipating a future reversion in capital efficiency or an improvement in asset turnover that has not yet materialized in the financial statements, creating a potential divergence between market expectations and realized operational performance.
Risk-adjusted return profiles further complicate the investment thesis through conflicting factor signals. While the stock exhibits a strong Fama-French alpha of 14.40% annually driven by its value tilt (HML: 0.479), this momentum is counterbalanced by deteriorating profitability metrics and recent insider activity showing $736,482 in net selling over the last ninety days. The convergence of a low Altman Z-Score with weak profit generation factors suggests that while the stock may offer attractive entry points for value-oriented strategies based on its HML factor, the underlying capital destruction and insider distribution patterns warrant caution regarding future downside protection.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 17% above its 5-year average P/E of 19.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current price action for Evergy, Inc. at $82.97 within the utilities sector presents a neutral-to-bullish structure that often attracts institutional scrutiny during periods of market stability. While specific moving average crossover data is not provided in this snapshot, the sustained presence near an 80-dollar level suggests potential support where larger capital allocators might establish defensive positions given the sector's typical low beta characteristics. Institutional players frequently monitor such utility stocks for yield and stability rather than aggressive growth, meaning volume trends here would likely reflect steady accumulation or passive holding patterns rather than speculative surges. In the absence of explicit volume spikes or sharp price deviations in this summary, larger market participants appear to be maintaining a measured stance, perhaps waiting for clearer macroeconomic signals before committing significant new capital. The lack of extreme volatility often seen in growth sectors implies that any institutional positioning is likely focused on long-term income generation rather than short-term momentum plays. Consequently, the technical setup does not exhibit immediate signs of aggressive entry or exit strategies by major funds; instead, it reflects a landscape where institutions are likely evaluating risk-adjusted returns consistent with broader defensive portfolio allocations. Ultimately, this configuration allows for diverse interpretations depending on an institution's specific mandate regarding interest rate sensitivity and dividend reliability. The data indicates that while there is no overt signal forcing immediate large-scale directional shifts by major players, the market structure remains conducive to those seeking stability over rapid appreciation. Observers should note that without further confirmation through volume expansion or
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | $0.6950 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-10 | $0.6950 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-21 | $0.6950 | +4.0% |
| 2025-08-22 | $0.6680 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-23 | $0.6680 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-10 | $0.6680 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-21 | $0.6680 | +3.9% |
| 2024-08-20 | $0.6430 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-17 | $0.6430 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-08 | $0.6430 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-21 | $0.6430 | +4.9% |
| 2023-08-18 | $0.6130 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLU or SPLV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell EVRG shares regardless of Evergy, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $3.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to EVRG through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Evergy, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Evergy, Inc. (EVRG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with EVRG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 34 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
EVRG Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 EVRG shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Evergy, Inc. (EVRG) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.4% of the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) and 1.3% of the SPLV (SPLV). Across 33 tracked ETFs, approximately 42M shares (18.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest EVRG Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 33 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
EVRG Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Evergy, Inc. over the past year sits near $75.80 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $81.35 trades 7.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
EVRG Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Evergy, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Evergy, Inc. converts -28% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 128% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.8%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 264 | $82.46 | $21,769.44 |
| 2026-05-01 | 10 | $82.84 | $828.4 |
| 2026-04-27 | 6 | $81.23 | $487.38 |
| 2026-04-24 | 499 | $81.89 | $40,863.11 |
| 2026-04-23 | 1,113 | $79.64 | $88,639.32 |
| 2026-04-22 | 14,892 | $80.35 | $1.2M |
| 2026-04-20 | 44,994 | $82.37 | $3.7M |
| 2026-04-17 | 179,687 | $82.00 | $14.7M |
| 2026-04-16 | 16,151 | $81.54 | $1.3M |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $81.92 | $245.76 |
| 2026-04-14 | 12,141 | $82.45 | $1.0M |
| 2026-04-13 | 28,730 | $83.58 | $2.4M |
| 2026-04-10 | 1 | $84.41 | $84.41 |
| 2026-04-09 | 644 | $83.44 | $53,735.36 |
| 2026-04-07 | 46,638 | $82.65 | $3.9M |
| 2026-03-27 | 12 | $80.40 | $964.8 |
| 2026-03-26 | 22,740 | $79.98 | $1.8M |
| 2026-03-25 | 22 | $79.93 | $1,758.46 |
| 2026-03-23 | 73 | $78.70 | $5,745.1 |
| 2026-03-19 | 1 | $81.54 | $81.54 |
| 2026-03-16 | 2,986 | $82.63 | $246,733.18 |
| 2026-02-25 | 100,000 | $82.50 | $8.3M |
| 2026-02-19 | 1 | $80.40 | $80.4 |
| 2026-02-17 | 62 | $82.69 | $5,126.78 |
| 2026-02-12 | 351 | $79.31 | $27,837.81 |
| 2026-02-10 | 40 | $77.15 | $3,086 |
| 2026-02-04 | 310 | $77.80 | $24,118 |
| 2026-02-02 | 27 | $76.73 | $2,071.71 |
| 2026-01-21 | 57,587 | $76.13 | $4.4M |
| 2026-01-20 | 10 | $76.44 | $764.4 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| PNW | 0.774 | 0.776 | High co-movement |
| AEE | 0.770 | 0.754 | High co-movement |
| LNT | 0.765 | 0.821 | High co-movement |
| DTE | 0.757 | 0.764 | High co-movement |
| DUK | 0.748 | 0.755 | High co-movement |
| CMS | 0.745 | 0.773 | High co-movement |
| WEC | 0.731 | 0.737 | High co-movement |
| EXC | 0.720 | 0.728 | High co-movement |
| PPL | 0.708 | 0.726 | High co-movement |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare EVRG to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.