argenx SE (ARGX)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 37.1x earnings — a 43% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — ARGX is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 23.7. DCF fair value of $264 implies 67% downside based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -1.49 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics reveal a distinct tension between aggressive top-line expansion and thin capital efficiency. Despite generating an impressive net margin of 38.0% driven by robust gross margins near 90%, the company's return on invested capital remains constrained at just 1.2%, indicating that high profitability is not translating into efficient asset utilization or significant leverage advantages, as evidenced by a modest equity multiplier of 1.13x and low asset turnover of 0.35x. This structural inefficiency contrasts sharply with the revenue growth trajectory of 78.6% year-over-year; while such velocity typically signals momentum, the resulting DuPont ROE of 15.2% suggests earnings power is currently decoupled from capital deployment efficiency. Furthermore, governance metrics present a mixed signal: a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 highlights financial fragility or deteriorating fundamentals over time, whereas a Beneish M-Score of -0.32 offers some reassurance regarding the lack of earnings manipulation, though it does not fully offset concerns about operational sustainability relative to valuation multiples.
Valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in substantial future growth that current cash flows have yet to support. Trading at 35.7x forward earnings significantly exceeds historical norms and likely outpaces sector averages given the low ROIC spread, implying investors are betting on a multiple expansion or an inflection point in capital efficiency rather than immediate value generation. The discounted cash flow model assigns a fair value of $1,227 per share; however, without explicit current market price data to determine the premium or discount relative to this target, it remains unclear whether the stock is currently overvalued based on intrinsic worth or simply reflecting high-growth expectations embedded in the multiple. The divergence between the lofty DCF estimate and the depressed ROIC indicates that any valuation realization depends entirely on the company's ability to convert its massive revenue growth into higher returns on capital before earnings multiples contract.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 90% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $326 | $235 | $190 |
| 3% | $404 | $264 | $204 |
| 4% | $560 | $308 | $224 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $802.17.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $264 (-67.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 73% above its 5-year average P/E of 23.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedArgenx SE is currently trading at $804.25 within the healthcare sector, presenting a scenario where institutional positioning can be inferred through specific technical patterns rather than direct price targets. The presence of Simple Moving Average crossovers often serves as a key signal for larger market participants adjusting their exposure; when such lines converge or diverge near current levels, it may indicate that sophisticated players are either consolidating recent gains or preparing to initiate new positions based on shifting momentum expectations. Volume trends accompanying these price movements provide critical context regarding the strength of this institutional activity, suggesting whether large orders are being absorbed quietly or if there is significant pressure building from major holders entering or exiting the trade. The current price action at $804.25 reflects a specific point in Argex's longer-term trend cycle where larger entities might be reassessing valuation metrics relative to sector peers. If volume spikes coincide with upward moves, it could imply that institutions are accumulating shares during perceived undervaluation phases, whereas declining volume on rallies might suggest a lack of fresh institutional capital supporting higher prices. Observers should note how the interplay between these moving averages and trading volumes creates a complex landscape where large players may be hedging against volatility or positioning for potential catalysts inherent to the biotechnology industry. Ultimately, this technical configuration offers a window into how significant market participants are structuring their portfolios in response to current market dynamics without dictating specific directional outcomes for individual investors.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IBB or VGK, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ARGX shares regardless of argenx SE's individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to ARGX through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in argenx SE to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If argenx SE (ARGX) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Amgen Inc (AMGN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with ARGX. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 9 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ARGX Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 32 ARGX shares, reducing daily market volatility.
argenx SE (ARGX) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.3% of the IBB (IBB) and 0.3% of the VGK (VGK). Across 8 tracked ETFs, approximately 2M shares (3.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest ARGX Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 8 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ARGX Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for argenx SE over the past year sits near $817.87 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $802.17 sits 1.9% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ARGX Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does argenx SE convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
argenx SE converts 44% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 56% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 5.8% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | 14,930 | $849.04 | $12.7M |
| 2026-04-01 | 21 | $730.25 | $15,335.25 |
| 2026-03-31 | 4 | $704.31 | $2,817.24 |
| 2026-03-25 | 44 | $677.50 | $29,810 |
| 2026-03-23 | 15 | $663.93 | $9,958.95 |
| 2026-03-20 | 41 | $684.50 | $28,064.5 |
| 2026-03-11 | 118 | $742.79 | $87,649.22 |
| 2026-03-03 | 133 | $756.76 | $100,649.08 |
| 2026-03-02 | 10 | $766.92 | $7,669.2 |
| 2026-02-25 | 1 | $840.28 | $840.28 |
| 2026-02-24 | 156 | $826.25 | $128,895 |
| 2026-02-18 | 1 | $843.55 | $843.55 |
| 2026-02-17 | 1 | $821.96 | $821.96 |
| 2026-02-13 | 22 | $833.54 | $18,337.88 |
| 2026-02-12 | 3 | $834.55 | $2,503.65 |
| 2026-02-10 | 2 | $828.24 | $1,656.48 |
| 2026-02-03 | 1,283 | $835.68 | $1.1M |
| 2026-01-29 | 9,669 | $846.76 | $8.2M |
| 2026-01-21 | 1 | $809.64 | $809.64 |
| 2026-01-20 | 1 | $800.01 | $800.01 |
| 2026-01-06 | 3 | $800.88 | $2,402.64 |
| 2025-12-16 | 69 | $850.95 | $58,715.55 |
| 2025-11-19 | 4 | $918.53 | $3,674.12 |
| 2025-11-17 | 309 | $907.98 | $280,565.82 |
| 2025-11-14 | 517 | $891.73 | $461,024.41 |
| 2025-11-12 | 19 | $889.64 | $16,903.16 |
| 2025-11-03 | 404 | $818.50 | $330,674 |
| 2025-10-17 | 1,101 | $837.28 | $921,845.28 |
| 2025-10-15 | 2,629 | $812.95 | $2.1M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ALNY | 0.539 | 0.350 | Moderate |
| ABBV | 0.346 | 0.317 | Moderate |
| AMGN | 0.323 | 0.305 | Moderate |
| JNJ | 0.303 | 0.271 | Moderate |
| REGN | 0.287 | 0.250 | Low correlation |
| ATAI | 0.284 | 0.312 | Low correlation |
| AZN | 0.283 | 0.243 | Low correlation |
| LLY | 0.278 | 0.210 | Low correlation |
| GILD | 0.269 | 0.288 | Low correlation |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ARGX to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.