Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicATO trades at 20.8x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 24.4x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 1.9.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Atmos Energy Corporation present a distinct divergence between operational profitability and capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition reveals an ROE of 8.8% driven by robust net margins at 25.5%, this return is underpinned by low asset turnover of 0.17x, characteristic of utility models rather than growth engines. More critically, a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -3.2% indicates that the company's current capital allocation destroys value relative to its cost of equity, despite generating high gross margins above 58%. This inefficiency is corroborated by an Altman Z-Score of 1.8 and a Profitability Factor (RMW) of -0.107, suggesting elevated distress risk and weak profitability trends that contrast with the otherwise solid Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and low Beneish M-Score of -2.64 indicating minimal earnings manipulation concerns.
Valuation metrics position Atmos Energy at a premium multiple relative to its own historical norms but in line with broader sector averages, trading at a current P/E of 24.6x versus the industry mean of 24.2x. This pricing suggests the market is not discounting for the negative ROIC-WACC spread or the weak profitability factor delta, potentially implying that investors are anchoring expectations on revenue growth rather than capital efficiency improvements. The implied fair value from a DCF perspective remains unquantified here due to missing cash flow inputs, but the elevated P/E relative to internal fundamentals raises questions about whether current prices fully reflect the drag of sub-optimal returns on invested capital versus the safety provided by consistent revenue expansion.
Risk-adjusted performance data highlights significant alpha generation under standard factor models, with a Fama-French Alpha of 13.98% annually and a positive Value Factor (HML) tilt at 0.501. These metrics suggest that despite weak profitability signals, the stock has delivered superior risk-adjusted returns relative to its size, value, and style characteristics over the measured period. However, this outperformance coexists with neutral insider flow over the last 90 days, offering no clear directional signal from management regarding future capital deployment or strategic shifts intended to address the negative spread between return on invested capital and the weighted average cost of capital.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 10% above its 5-year average P/E of 22.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAtmos Energy Corporation is currently trading at $176.48, a price point that requires contextual analysis against its moving average envelope to assess relative value. Without specific upper and lower band data or the exact timeframe of these averages, it remains unclear whether this level represents an extension beyond historical norms or a return toward statistical equilibrium within the Utilities sector. If the current price sits near the mean of the standard deviation bands, the asset may be exhibiting characteristics typical of fair valuation with limited immediate directional bias. Conversely, if trading significantly above the upper boundary, technical theory suggests increased volatility and potential for corrective downward pressure as prices seek alignment with historical averages. The positioning relative to these dynamic thresholds offers insight into mean-reversion probabilities rather than definitive trend confirmation. A price detached from its central tendency often signals a stretched valuation that historically tends to contract toward the moving average over time. However, without knowing the slope of the envelope or recent volatility regimes, one cannot definitively gauge whether $176.48 represents an attractive entry for mean reversion or a continuation of momentum. Observers should note that utility stocks frequently display lower beta characteristics, which might dampen rapid corrections even when prices deviate from their statistical norms. Ultimately, the technical setup hinges on where this specific price level aligns with the calculated boundaries of its recent performance history. If $176.48 is approaching or touching a major resistance line defined by past moving averages, it could indicate a ceiling for further upside
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | $1.0000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-23 | $1.0000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-24 | $1.0000 | +14.9% |
| 2025-08-25 | $0.8700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-27 | $0.8700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-25 | $0.8700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-25 | $0.8700 | +8.1% |
| 2024-08-26 | $0.8050 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-24 | $0.8050 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-23 | $0.8050 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-24 | $0.8050 | +8.8% |
| 2023-08-18 | $0.7400 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLU or VPU, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ATO shares regardless of Atmos Energy Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $5.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to ATO through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Atmos Energy Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with ATO. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 32 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ATO Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 ATO shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.1% of the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) and 1.9% of the VPU (VPU). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 30M shares (17.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest ATO Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ATO Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Atmos Energy Corporation over the past year sits near $166.65 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $168.75 trades 1.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ATO Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Atmos Energy Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Atmos Energy Corporation converts -63% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 163% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.1%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 3,048 | $182.13 | $555,132.24 |
| 2026-04-24 | 727 | $187.81 | $136,537.87 |
| 2026-04-23 | 24 | $182.49 | $4,379.76 |
| 2026-04-15 | 265 | $188.16 | $49,862.4 |
| 2026-04-01 | 4 | $184.72 | $738.88 |
| 2026-03-25 | 16 | $181.57 | $2,905.12 |
| 2026-03-24 | 8,953 | $181.03 | $1.6M |
| 2026-03-23 | 10,000 | $180.49 | $1.8M |
| 2026-01-23 | 2,552 | $165.40 | $422,100.8 |
| 2026-01-22 | 2,552 | $168.37 | $429,680.24 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2,552 | $168.00 | $428,736 |
| 2026-01-20 | 190 | $170.47 | $32,389.3 |
| 2025-12-31 | 96 | $168.58 | $16,183.68 |
| 2025-12-12 | 1,445 | $167.09 | $241,445.05 |
| 2025-11-26 | 6,158 | $173.34 | $1.1M |
| 2025-11-25 | 100,438 | $174.56 | $17.5M |
| 2025-11-24 | 8,911 | $175.16 | $1.6M |
| 2025-11-20 | 5,400 | $173.92 | $939,168 |
| 2025-10-24 | 6,234 | $175.75 | $1.1M |
| 2025-10-22 | 10 | $177.04 | $1,770.4 |
| 2025-10-20 | 2,936 | $176.41 | $517,939.76 |
| 2025-10-07 | 40 | $173.32 | $6,932.8 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| AEE | 0.750 | 0.730 | High co-movement |
| WEC | 0.742 | 0.689 | High co-movement |
| LNT | 0.737 | 0.755 | High co-movement |
| DUK | 0.725 | 0.708 | High co-movement |
| CMS | 0.724 | 0.715 | High co-movement |
| CNP | 0.724 | 0.759 | High co-movement |
| PNW | 0.720 | 0.685 | High co-movement |
| DTE | 0.720 | 0.663 | High co-movement |
| ED | 0.698 | 0.668 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ATO to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.