Bloom Energy Corporation (BE)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 7.9. DCF fair value of $2 implies 99% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of BE reveal a severe divergence between top-line expansion and bottom-line sustainability, characterized by negative returns on invested capital at -0.6% and a DuPont-decomposed ROE of -11.2%, driven primarily by a net margin contraction to -4.4%. While the Beneish M-Score of -2.52 suggests low earnings manipulation risk and revenue growth remains robust at 37.3% YoY, the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates moderate financial weakness relative to peers. This structural inefficiency is starkly highlighted by a Profitability Factor (RMW) of -2.204, signaling that despite high asset turnover and leverage multiples, the firm's core operating margins are failing to generate value for shareholders.
Valuation metrics present a compelling disconnect between current market pricing and intrinsic worth derived from discounted cash flow models. The DCF analysis assigns a fair value of $7, implying an aggressive long-term free cash flow growth assumption of 50% over ten years, yet the stock currently trades at a level that represents -95.1% downside relative to this theoretical floor. This massive valuation gap suggests the market is pricing in significant risk or skepticism regarding the durability of profitability rather than just revenue momentum. Consequently, while the Value Factor (HML) score of 0.347 indicates a tilt toward value characteristics, the extreme discount implies that consensus expectations may already be fully priced into current levels despite the apparent undervaluation relative to DCF models.
Risk-adjusted performance data offers mixed signals regarding future alpha generation and ownership stability. The Fama-French Alpha stands anomalously high at 73.23% annually, which typically denotes superior risk-adjusted returns, yet this is counterbalanced by a negative insider flow of $61 million over the last ninety days, suggesting significant selling pressure from corporate insiders. This combination of exceptional historical alpha metrics and substantial insider divestiture creates an ambiguous risk-reward profile where past factor performance does not necessarily align with current governance signals or future profitability trajectories.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 37% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 21.1% | 23.1% | 25.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $2 | $2 | $1 |
| 3% | $2 | $2 | $1 |
| 4% | $2 | $2 | $1 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $302.85.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=23.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $2 (-99.1%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current price action for Bloom Energy Corporation at $282.31 reflects a significant divergence between the short-term and medium-term moving averages, with the 50-day line crossing above the 200-day average while the immediate trend remains below these key thresholds. This configuration suggests that larger market participants may be engaging in complex positioning strategies rather than initiating straightforward accumulation or distribution phases. The presence of a golden cross on higher timeframes typically indicates shifting institutional sentiment toward long-term bullishness, yet the price's failure to sustain above critical moving averages implies caution among sophisticated traders who are likely waiting for confirmation before committing substantial capital. Volume trends accompanying these price movements further complicate the narrative, as elevated activity near support levels often signals active rebalancing by fund managers rather than organic demand growth. The interplay between rising volume and a struggling upward trajectory from $282.31 could indicate that institutional investors are absorbing selling pressure or testing liquidity without fully validating the bullish thesis suggested by the moving average crossovers. Such behavior is characteristic of entities preparing for potential entry points while monitoring broader sector dynamics within Industrials, suggesting a period of consolidation rather than decisive directional movement. Ultimately, the technical setup presents an ambiguous picture where long-term structural indicators conflict with short-term price weakness. Institutional actors appear to be in a state of observation or tactical adjustment, utilizing current levels to gauge market stability before committing resources. The data does not confirm a definitive shift in control but highlights a nuanced environment
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IWO or VTWO, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell BE shares regardless of Bloom Energy Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $6.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to BE through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Bloom Energy Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Bloom Energy Corporation (BE) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with BE. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 15 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
BE Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 12 BE shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Bloom Energy Corporation (BE) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.6% of the IWO (IWO) and 1.8% of the VTWO (VTWO). Across 13 tracked ETFs, approximately 24M shares (8.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest BE Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 13 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
BE Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Bloom Energy Corporation over the past year sits near $86.68 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $302.85 trades 249.4% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
BE Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Bloom Energy Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Bloom Energy Corporation converts 285% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-23.7%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 71 | $289.76 | $20,572.96 |
| 2026-05-11 | 31,489 | $261.03 | $8.2M |
| 2026-05-04 | 20,519 | $290.52 | $6.0M |
| 2026-05-01 | 303 | $283.36 | $85,858.08 |
| 2026-04-27 | 2,941 | $231.17 | $679,870.97 |
| 2026-04-20 | 27,590 | $207.86 | $5.7M |
| 2026-04-17 | 15 | $210.06 | $3,150.9 |
| 2026-04-13 | 25,817 | $166.70 | $4.3M |
| 2026-04-10 | 20,667 | $160.13 | $3.3M |
| 2026-04-09 | 16,592 | $146.78 | $2.4M |
| 2026-04-06 | 38 | $135.63 | $5,153.94 |
| 2026-03-30 | 1,000 | $133.24 | $133,240 |
| 2026-03-23 | 7,150 | $150.12 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-20 | 14,273 | $166.69 | $2.4M |
| 2026-03-18 | 444 | $160.05 | $71,062.2 |
| 2026-03-17 | 1,170 | $153.68 | $179,805.6 |
| 2026-03-16 | 15,508 | $154.51 | $2.4M |
| 2026-03-13 | 75,432 | $157.17 | $11.9M |
| 2026-03-10 | 33,139 | $151.32 | $5.0M |
| 2026-03-02 | 108 | $155.67 | $16,812.36 |
| 2026-02-23 | 109,792 | $147.55 | $16.2M |
| 2026-02-20 | 791 | $159.00 | $125,769 |
| 2026-02-19 | 32,079 | $157.27 | $5.0M |
| 2026-02-17 | 47,379 | $139.74 | $6.6M |
| 2026-02-12 | 17,385 | $155.54 | $2.7M |
| 2026-02-10 | 1,500 | $155.17 | $232,755 |
| 2026-02-05 | 25,491 | $147.35 | $3.8M |
| 2026-01-26 | 631 | $144.89 | $91,425.59 |
| 2026-01-22 | 6,002 | $150.56 | $903,661.12 |
| 2026-01-20 | 3,500 | $149.50 | $523,250 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| VRT | 0.537 | 0.610 | Moderate |
| FIX | 0.501 | 0.598 | Moderate |
| CAT | 0.498 | 0.571 | Moderate |
| BWXT | 0.483 | 0.636 | Moderate |
| TER | 0.481 | 0.617 | Moderate |
| SNDK | 0.476 | 0.570 | Moderate |
| LRCX | 0.474 | 0.582 | Moderate |
| EME | 0.464 | 0.532 | Moderate |
| CW | 0.463 | 0.547 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare BE to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.