Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFIX trades at 52.9x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 11.2 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $530 implies 67% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe firm exhibits robust fundamental economics, characterized by a substantial 19.1% ROIC-WACC spread that signals high capital efficiency relative to the cost of debt and equity financing. This superior return is driven primarily by operational leverage rather than financial engineering; while an Equity Multiplier of 2.63x provides moderate leverage, the core engine relies on strong asset turnover at 1.41x paired with healthy net margins of 11.2%. Qualitative risk indicators further support this view, as a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and an Altman Z-Score exceeding 10.2 suggest resilient financial health and low distress probability, whereas the negative Beneish M-Score of -2.36 indicates earnings are likely free from manipulation.
Despite these operational strengths, valuation metrics present a significant divergence between current pricing and intrinsic value models. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 49.0x, which implies aggressive growth expectations that may not be fully supported by the underlying cash flow dynamics when compared to historical benchmarks or sector peers. A discounted cash flow analysis suggests a fair value of $529, corresponding to an implied downside of approximately -61.6% from current levels if realized over a ten-year horizon with 30.4% free cash flow growth assumptions. This wide gap indicates the market is pricing in exceptionally high future expansion rates that carry substantial execution risk relative to today's multiple.
The investment profile carries notable idiosyncratic risks highlighted by recent insider activity and factor exposures. Over the past ninety days, insiders have executed net selling totaling $56.8 million, a signal often interpreted as skepticism regarding near-term valuations or future guidance from those most aligned with long-term prospects. Furthermore, while the stock demonstrates exceptional Fama-French alpha of 67.67% annually, it exhibits a distinct growth tilt with an HML factor loading of -0.528 and neutral profitability exposure (RMW: 0.061). This combination suggests that any deterioration in revenue velocity or margin compression could disproportionately impact total returns given the current premium valuation structure.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 30% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 12.6% | 14.6% | 16.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $603 | $500 | $425 |
| 3% | $650 | $530 | $446 |
| 4% | $709 | $567 | $470 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $1883.26.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=14.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $530 (-67.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 172% above its 5-year average P/E of 20.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedComfort Systems USA, Inc. is currently trading at $1825.50 within the Industrials sector, presenting a scenario where immediate trend confirmation requires comparison against longer-term moving averages to determine if the price structure remains bullish or has shifted lower. Without specific Moving Average values provided in this snapshot, the precise relationship between current pricing and historical trends cannot be definitively established, leaving the medium-to-long term trajectory ambiguous based solely on these figures. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is not included in the available data points; consequently, any assessment of short-term momentum strength or potential overbought conditions remains speculative without that specific indicator's reading. The absence of explicit Moving Average levels and RSI values means the technical setup lacks the necessary components to confirm whether recent price action represents a sustained uptrend or a temporary fluctuation within a broader range. Analysts observing this stock would need to integrate the current $1825.50 level with its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages to ascertain if support is holding above key thresholds or if resistance is forming below them. Similarly, determining momentum direction relies entirely on missing RSI data that would indicate whether buying pressure is intensifying or beginning to wane in the immediate timeframe. Ultimately, this limited dataset offers only a single price point without context regarding velocity or trend alignment. The market position of FIX appears isolated from broader technical confirmations usually required for robust directional analysis. Stake
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $0.8000 | +14.3% |
| 2026-03-06 | $0.7000 | +16.7% |
| 2025-11-13 | $0.6000 | +20.0% |
| 2025-08-14 | $0.5000 | +11.1% |
| 2025-05-16 | $0.4500 | +12.5% |
| 2025-03-10 | $0.4000 | +14.3% |
| 2024-11-14 | $0.3500 | +16.7% |
| 2024-08-12 | $0.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-10 | $0.3000 | +20.0% |
| 2024-03-07 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-15 | $0.2500 | +11.1% |
| 2023-08-16 | $0.2250 | +12.5% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IWP or XLI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell FIX shares regardless of Comfort Systems USA, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $8.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to FIX through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Comfort Systems USA, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with FIX. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 35 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
FIX Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 FIX shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.2% of the IWP (IWP) and 1.2% of the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 5M shares (15.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest FIX Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
FIX Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Comfort Systems USA, Inc. over the past year sits near $987.38 (15% of 252-day volume). The current price of $1883.26 trades 90.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (15% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
FIX Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Comfort Systems USA, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. converts 72% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 19.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 649 | $2034.63 | $1.3M |
| 2026-04-27 | 2 | $1726.12 | $3,452.24 |
| 2026-04-20 | 55 | $1650.47 | $90,775.85 |
| 2026-04-17 | 19 | $1605.97 | $30,513.43 |
| 2026-04-06 | 4 | $1417.19 | $5,668.76 |
| 2026-03-25 | 448 | $1461.52 | $654,760.96 |
| 2026-03-24 | 9 | $1408.25 | $12,674.25 |
| 2026-03-23 | 2 | $1356.75 | $2,713.5 |
| 2026-03-19 | 57 | $1423.00 | $81,111 |
| 2026-02-23 | 1,047 | $1462.23 | $1.5M |
| 2026-01-21 | 4,491 | $1134.75 | $5.1M |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,000 | $1119.98 | $1.1M |
| 2026-01-06 | 41 | $1032.31 | $42,324.71 |
| 2025-12-23 | 329 | $950.79 | $312,809.91 |
| 2025-12-22 | 329 | $940.74 | $309,503.46 |
| 2025-12-02 | 217 | $961.20 | $208,580.4 |
| 2025-11-21 | 200 | $876.19 | $175,238 |
| 2025-10-23 | 543 | $790.72 | $429,360.96 |
| 2025-10-20 | 21 | $827.92 | $17,386.32 |
| 2025-10-01 | 760 | $825.18 | $627,136.8 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| EME | 0.802 | 0.774 | High co-movement |
| PWR | 0.752 | 0.810 | High co-movement |
| VRT | 0.660 | 0.658 | Moderate |
| ETN | 0.611 | 0.629 | Moderate |
| CW | 0.587 | 0.677 | Moderate |
| GEV | 0.573 | 0.592 | Moderate |
| TSM | 0.566 | 0.644 | Moderate |
| FN | 0.564 | 0.629 | Moderate |
| MOD | 0.564 | 0.597 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare FIX to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.