EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 27.8x earnings — a 38% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — EME is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 7.3. DCF fair value of $704 implies 13% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of EME exhibit a compelling divergence between high-quality capital allocation and moderate profitability efficiency. The company generates an ROIC-WACC spread indicative of robust value creation, supported by a DuPont decomposition where asset turnover (1.83x) serves as the primary engine for its 34.6% ROE rather than margin expansion or excessive leverage. Credit metrics reinforce this structural strength with an Altman Z-Score of 7.0 and a Beneish M-Score of -2.25, suggesting low distress risk and minimal earnings manipulation concerns. However, the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicates that while financial health is solid, there are no significant positive momentum shifts in recent quarters to elevate its fundamental trajectory further.
Valuation analysis reveals a material disconnect between current pricing and intrinsic value derived from discounted cash flow models. Trading at a forward P/E of 26.8x against a DCF fair value implying -25.6% upside suggests the market is currently pricing in aggressive growth assumptions that may not be fully realized, particularly given the implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of only 19.4%. This valuation premium appears misaligned with the company's historical performance and sector norms, as the stock carries a distinct growth tilt evidenced by a negative Value Factor (HML) of -0.336. The market seems to be anticipating sustained acceleration in revenue or margin expansion that has not yet materialized relative to current cost-of-capital benchmarks.
Risk assessment highlights significant insider activity counterbalancing the strong Fama-French alpha performance. While the stock demonstrates an annual Fama-French Alpha of 39.66%, indicating outperformance on a risk-adjusted basis, this is juxtaposed against $28.7 million in net insider selling over the last ninety days. This substantial internal distribution raises questions about management's confidence at current price levels despite the company's profitability factor (RMW) remaining neutral at 0.028. The combination of high valuation multiples, significant insider offloading, and a lack of recent fundamental upgrades creates an asymmetric risk profile where downside protection relies heavily on future growth execution rather than defensive characteristics or margin improvement.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 17% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $857 | $632 | $498 |
| 3% | $1003 | $704 | $540 |
| 4% | $1220 | $801 | $592 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $827.28.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $704 (-13.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 62% above its 5-year average P/E of 17.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedEMCOR Group, Inc. is currently trading at $854.36 within the Industrials sector. Without access to specific moving average values or RSI readings in the provided dataset, a definitive assessment of whether price momentum aligns with long-term trends cannot be established solely on this single data point. Typically, technical analysis relies heavily on comparing current pricing against key moving averages such as the 50-day and 200-day lines to gauge trend direction; if the stock were trading above these levels, it would historically suggest an uptrend, whereas a position below them might indicate bearish pressure. Similarly, the Relative Strength Index is essential for evaluating short-term momentum, yet its calculation requires recent price history that is not included here. Consequently, while the current valuation stands at $854.36, any conclusion regarding whether this represents overbought or oversold conditions, or if it confirms a broader bullish or bearish trajectory, remains speculative without additional historical data points to synthesize into a complete technical picture.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-14 | $0.4000 | +60.0% |
| 2025-10-15 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-15 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-17 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-16 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-15 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-15 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-15 | $0.2500 | +38.9% |
| 2024-01-12 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-13 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-19 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLI or VBK, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell EME shares regardless of EMCOR Group, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $5.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to EME through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in EMCOR Group, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with EME. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
EME Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 EME shares, reducing daily market volatility.
EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.7% of the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) and 0.6% of the VBK (VBK). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 6M shares (14.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest EME Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
EME Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for EMCOR Group, Inc. over the past year sits near $616.16 (25% of 252-day volume). The current price of $827.28 trades 34.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (25% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
EME Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does EMCOR Group, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
EMCOR Group, Inc. converts 62% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 30 | $869.90 | $26,097 |
| 2026-04-16 | 100 | $803.64 | $80,364 |
| 2026-04-15 | 100 | $814.18 | $81,418 |
| 2026-03-25 | 5 | $761.27 | $3,806.35 |
| 2026-03-23 | 5 | $724.93 | $3,624.65 |
| 2026-02-23 | 500 | $812.79 | $406,395 |
| 2026-02-05 | 1,364 | $708.62 | $966,557.68 |
| 2026-02-03 | 24 | $731.67 | $17,560.08 |
| 2026-01-30 | 8,248 | $730.40 | $6.0M |
| 2026-01-14 | 100 | $670.55 | $67,055 |
| 2026-01-13 | 61 | $660.65 | $40,299.65 |
| 2025-12-22 | 336 | $611.41 | $205,433.76 |
| 2025-12-10 | 52 | $623.74 | $32,434.48 |
| 2025-11-24 | 100 | $581.58 | $58,158 |
| 2025-10-30 | 1,842 | $777.00 | $1.4M |
| 2025-10-22 | 8 | $689.95 | $5,519.6 |
| 2025-10-20 | 2 | $689.01 | $1,378.02 |
| 2025-10-02 | 542 | $654.92 | $354,966.64 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| FIX | 0.802 | 0.774 | High co-movement |
| PWR | 0.662 | 0.656 | Moderate |
| VRT | 0.614 | 0.589 | Moderate |
| ETN | 0.563 | 0.552 | Moderate |
| FN | 0.547 | 0.564 | Moderate |
| CW | 0.541 | 0.584 | Moderate |
| CAT | 0.540 | 0.558 | Moderate |
| LRCX | 0.530 | 0.598 | Moderate |
| HWM | 0.517 | 0.505 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare EME to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.