Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicBRO trades at 18.3x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 19.2x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 1.5. DCF fair value of $122 implies 81% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedBrown & Brown, Inc. demonstrates a capital-efficient business model driven primarily by high operating leverage rather than asset intensity or debt financing. The 8.4% return on equity is anchored almost entirely by an exceptional 18.3% net margin, while the low 0.19x asset turnover and modest 2.39x equity multiplier indicate that earnings generation relies on pricing power and cost control rather than balance sheet leverage or rapid capital recycling. Although the 6.1% ROIC suggests a moderate spread over typical WACC in this sector, the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals mixed fundamental momentum compared to strong peers. Conversely, the Beneish M-Score of -2.44 provides robust evidence against earnings manipulation, reinforcing the credibility of these reported margins despite the middling capital efficiency metrics.
Valuation multiples currently trade at a premium relative to historical norms and sector benchmarks, with the stock priced at 20.9x forward earnings versus an industry average of 18.0x. This multiple expansion appears supported by robust top-line momentum, evidenced by revenue growth accelerating to 22.5% year-over-year alongside strong gross margins near 49%. However, a discounted cash flow analysis implies significant upside potential at $126 per share, contingent on the assumption of sustained free cash flow growth averaging 4.3% over the next decade. The market's current pricing likely reflects confidence in this long-term compounding trajectory rather than immediate earnings acceleration alone.
Risk exposure remains neutral regarding insider activity, with no net buying or selling pressure observed within the last ninety days. While the Piotroski score introduces some uncertainty about future operational stability, the combination of low manipulation risk and strong revenue expansion suggests a company executing its growth strategy effectively. The divergence between current valuation metrics and DCF-derived fair value indicates that investors are pricing in substantial future cash flow generation, though this thesis hinges on maintaining the observed margin profile without significant erosion in asset turnover or leverage ratios.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 22% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $161 | $104 | $74 |
| 3% | $205 | $122 | $83 |
| 4% | $284 | $148 | $96 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $56.59.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $122 (+81.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 23% below its 5-year average P/E of 26.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedBrown & Brown, Inc. is currently trading at $56.28 within the Financial Services sector, presenting a snapshot of its immediate market positioning relative to key trend indicators. The current price level serves as a critical reference point for assessing whether recent momentum aligns with established moving averages or if short-term volatility suggests a divergence from these longer-term trends. Observing where this valuation sits against historical averages helps determine the prevailing directionality, indicating whether upward pressure is dominant or if corrective forces are gaining traction in the near term. The Relative Strength Index adds another layer of insight into the stock's velocity by measuring its position on an overbought or oversold spectrum without explicitly dictating future price action. This metric offers a factual gauge of short-term momentum, revealing whether buying interest has been sustained aggressively or if selling pressure is beginning to outweigh recent gains. Together, these technical elements construct a neutral picture of the asset's dynamic state, highlighting the interplay between current valuation and historical performance metrics that market participants typically analyze when evaluating potential shifts in trajectory.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | $0.1650 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-04 | $0.1650 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.1650 | +10.0% |
| 2025-08-13 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-12 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-05 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-06 | $0.1500 | +15.4% |
| 2024-08-07 | $0.1300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-03 | $0.1300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-01 | $0.1300 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-31 | $0.1300 | +13.0% |
| 2023-08-08 | $0.1150 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like KIE or NOBL, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell BRO shares regardless of Brown & Brown, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $3.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to BRO through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Brown & Brown, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC CL B (BRK.B) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with BRO. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 32 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
BRO Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 BRO shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.5% of the KIE (KIE) and 1.3% of the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL). Across 33 tracked ETFs, approximately 50M shares (14.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest BRO Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 33 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
BRO Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Brown & Brown, Inc. over the past year sits near $79.03 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $56.59 sits 28.4% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
BRO Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Brown & Brown, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Brown & Brown, Inc. converts 68% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.4%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 224,323 | $54.38 | $12.2M |
| 2026-05-13 | 283,135 | $55.77 | $15.8M |
| 2026-05-11 | 679 | $56.45 | $38,329.55 |
| 2026-05-08 | 17,108 | $58.05 | $993,119.4 |
| 2026-04-29 | 31,560 | $63.14 | $2.0M |
| 2026-04-23 | 4 | $67.88 | $271.52 |
| 2026-04-20 | 210 | $67.72 | $14,221.2 |
| 2026-04-17 | 830 | $68.82 | $57,120.6 |
| 2026-04-14 | 3 | $67.46 | $202.38 |
| 2026-04-13 | 348 | $65.08 | $22,647.84 |
| 2026-04-08 | 758 | $66.37 | $50,308.46 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,243 | $65.95 | $81,975.85 |
| 2026-04-01 | 182 | $65.21 | $11,868.22 |
| 2026-03-26 | 11,971 | $64.29 | $769,615.59 |
| 2026-03-25 | 29 | $66.50 | $1,928.5 |
| 2026-03-23 | 19 | $67.05 | $1,273.95 |
| 2026-03-20 | 49 | $66.56 | $3,261.44 |
| 2026-03-19 | 23 | $67.08 | $1,542.84 |
| 2026-03-11 | 122 | $68.58 | $8,366.76 |
| 2026-03-06 | 22,474 | $73.12 | $1.6M |
| 2026-03-05 | 1 | $71.85 | $71.85 |
| 2026-03-04 | 7,743 | $72.16 | $558,734.88 |
| 2026-03-03 | 37,444 | $72.36 | $2.7M |
| 2026-03-02 | 6,600 | $71.82 | $474,012 |
| 2026-02-27 | 7,286 | $71.22 | $518,908.92 |
| 2026-02-23 | 30,092 | $69.59 | $2.1M |
| 2026-02-20 | 41,785 | $69.42 | $2.9M |
| 2026-02-19 | 173,247 | $69.69 | $12.1M |
| 2026-02-18 | 5,106 | $68.83 | $351,445.98 |
| 2026-02-12 | 31 | $67.02 | $2,077.62 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| AJG | 0.770 | 0.776 | High co-movement |
| MMC | 0.704 | 0.738 | High co-movement |
| MRSH | 0.682 | 0.738 | Moderate |
| AON | 0.658 | 0.699 | Moderate |
| ACGL | 0.485 | 0.554 | Moderate |
| CB | 0.478 | 0.557 | Moderate |
| WRB | 0.468 | 0.451 | Moderate |
| ERIE | 0.465 | 0.553 | Moderate |
| ADP | 0.427 | 0.425 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare BRO to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.