Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicMRSH trades at 20.0x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 19.2x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 2.7. DCF fair value of $300 implies 73% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company demonstrates robust capital efficiency, generating a 5.2% spread between its return on invested capital and weighted average cost of capital, indicating value creation beyond the cost of funds. This strong performance is driven primarily by high net margins at 15.4%, supported by significant financial leverage with an equity multiplier of 3.83x rather than operational efficiency, as evidenced by modest asset turnover of 0.46x. While the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggests a healthy balance sheet trajectory and the Beneish M-Score of -2.51 points to low earnings manipulation risk, the Altman Z-Score of 2.7 places the firm in the gray zone regarding bankruptcy probability, warranting close monitoring despite its current profitability factor neutrality.
Valuation metrics present a divergence between fundamental models and market pricing; the stock trades at a 20.7x P/E multiple against an implied long-term free cash flow growth rate of only 5.2%, creating a potential disconnect if future expansion materializes as expected by discounted cash flow analyses suggesting fair value significantly higher than current levels. The positive HML factor loading of 0.308 aligns the security with traditional value characteristics, yet the market's willingness to pay this multiple implies expectations that exceed the conservative growth assumptions embedded in the intrinsic valuation model.
Risk assessment reveals a notable divergence between fundamental quality and recent ownership dynamics, highlighted by $4.17 million in net insider selling over the past 90 days. This outflow contrasts with the negative Fama-French alpha of -5.40% annually, suggesting that despite strong profitability metrics, the stock has underperformed relative to its risk factors recently. Investors must weigh the attractive fundamental spread and low manipulation indicators against both the elevated bankruptcy sensitivity indicated by the Z-Score and the lack of insider confidence reflected in recent trading flows.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 10% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $392 | $257 | $185 |
| 3% | $500 | $300 | $208 |
| 4% | $693 | $363 | $238 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $161.39.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $300 (+73.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 20% below its 5-year average P/E of 24.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | $0.9000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-29 | $0.9000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-02 | $0.9000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-24 | $0.9000 | +10.4% |
| 2025-04-03 | $0.8150 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-30 | $0.8150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-04 | $0.8150 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-25 | $0.8150 | +14.8% |
| 2024-04-03 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-24 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-05 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-26 | $0.7100 | +20.3% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like KIE or XLF, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MRSH shares regardless of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $7.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to MRSH through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with MRSH. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 20 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
MRSH Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 10 MRSH shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.7% of the KIE (KIE) and 1.1% of the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF). Across 20 tracked ETFs, approximately 49M shares (10.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest MRSH Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 20 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
MRSH Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. over the past year sits near $182.05 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $161.39 sits 11.3% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
MRSH Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. converts 67% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 5.2% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 1,923 | $159.14 | $306,026.22 |
| 2026-05-08 | 77 | $166.03 | $12,784.31 |
| 2026-04-30 | 21,286 | $170.83 | $3.6M |
| 2026-04-29 | 95 | $170.82 | $16,227.9 |
| 2026-04-24 | 332 | $174.01 | $57,771.32 |
| 2026-04-23 | 375 | $175.50 | $65,812.5 |
| 2026-04-22 | 13,164 | $179.00 | $2.4M |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $172.85 | $518.55 |
| 2026-04-14 | 8,756 | $173.55 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-10 | 1,100 | $173.14 | $190,454 |
| 2026-04-09 | 1,580 | $175.81 | $277,779.8 |
| 2026-04-08 | 8,921 | $172.66 | $1.5M |
| 2026-03-30 | 50,292 | $169.17 | $8.5M |
| 2026-03-26 | 25,763 | $174.20 | $4.5M |
| 2026-03-25 | 49 | $173.10 | $8,481.9 |
| 2026-03-24 | 23 | $173.87 | $3,999.01 |
| 2026-03-23 | 2 | $176.48 | $352.96 |
| 2026-03-13 | 41,373 | $170.88 | $7.1M |
| 2026-03-12 | 162 | $173.97 | $28,183.14 |
| 2026-03-10 | 595 | $179.97 | $107,082.15 |
| 2026-03-09 | 620 | $183.08 | $113,509.6 |
| 2026-03-06 | 1,180 | $185.00 | $218,300 |
| 2026-03-05 | 524 | $184.84 | $96,856.16 |
| 2026-03-04 | 14,608 | $184.23 | $2.7M |
| 2026-02-26 | 10,820 | $181.10 | $2.0M |
| 2026-02-17 | 1,518 | $174.06 | $264,223.08 |
| 2026-02-11 | 4 | $175.34 | $701.36 |
| 2026-01-29 | 520 | $178.18 | $92,653.6 |
| 2026-01-28 | 152,667 | $179.18 | $27.4M |
| 2026-01-26 | 30 | $183.16 | $5,494.8 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MMC | 1.000 | 1.000 | High co-movement |
| AON | 0.743 | 0.795 | High co-movement |
| AJG | 0.736 | 0.760 | High co-movement |
| BRO | 0.682 | 0.738 | Moderate |
| ACGL | 0.585 | 0.590 | Moderate |
| HIG | 0.576 | 0.546 | Moderate |
| AFL | 0.560 | 0.526 | Moderate |
| TRV | 0.549 | 0.546 | Moderate |
| CB | 0.548 | 0.494 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare MRSH to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.