Aon plc (AON)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAON trades at 17.4x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 19.2x. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 8/9) with Altman Z of 1.7. DCF fair value of $197 implies 40% downside based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -0.07 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Aon plc demonstrate a robust quality profile driven primarily by high operating leverage rather than asset efficiency, as evidenced by an ROE decomposition where a 21.5% net margin and 5.32x equity multiplier outweigh the modest 0.34x asset turnover. This structure generates a compelling +7.1% spread between its 16.0% return on invested capital and 8.9% cost of capital, indicating strong value creation potential despite an Altman Z-Score of 1.8 that signals elevated bankruptcy risk relative to the broader universe. The company's financial integrity is further supported by a high Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a negative Beneish M-Score of -0.07, suggesting minimal earnings manipulation while maintaining double-digit revenue growth at 9.4% year-over-year.
Valuation metrics present a divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models; the stock trades at 19.0x forward earnings, slightly above the sector average of 18.4x, yet sits significantly below its DCF-derived fair value of $195 which implies an 8.1% annual free cash flow growth rate over a decade. This discrepancy suggests the market may be pricing in lower persistence for future cash flows than the discounted model assumes, resulting in a calculated downside gap of -39.6%. While factor analysis reveals exposure to profitability (RMW: 0.117) and some value characteristics (HML: 0.229), these positive tilts are counterbalanced by a substantial Fama-French alpha drag of -29.57%, indicating underperformance relative to the specific risk factors in which it participates.
Recent insider activity shows $1,782,810 net selling over the last 90 days, introducing a potential sentiment headwind that warrants scrutiny alongside the elevated leverage inherent in its capital structure. The convergence of high profitability and strong cash generation against a backdrop of insider distribution and subpar factor-adjusted returns creates a complex risk-reward dynamic where downside protection relies heavily on mean reversion toward intrinsic value rather than immediate momentum or alpha capture.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 9% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.9% | 8.9% | 10.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $261 | $166 | $115 |
| 3% | $330 | $197 | $131 |
| 4% | $448 | $239 | $152 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $317.86.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $197 (-39.6%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 9% below its 5-year average P/E of 20.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current price of Aon plc at $317.22 sits within a technical framework where Short-Term Moving Average crossovers often serve as proxies for shifting institutional sentiment rather than definitive directional mandates. When these averages converge or diverge, they frequently reflect the aggregated positioning adjustments made by larger market participants who utilize algorithmic execution to manage risk exposure over varying time horizons. A sustained alignment between price and short-term moving averages could suggest that institutions are currently maintaining existing long positions, whereas a breach of these levels might indicate a recalibration toward neutral or defensive stances as liquidity requirements evolve across the financial services sector. Volume trends accompanying recent price action provide critical context for interpreting whether observed movements are driven by organic accumulation or distribution. Elevated volume during upward price swings often signals that institutional capital is absorbing shares at higher valuations, potentially anticipating continued macroeconomic resilience in reinsurance and risk management markets. Conversely, significant trading activity without corresponding price appreciation may imply that large players are hedging portfolios or rotating assets into sectors with different liquidity profiles. The interplay between these volume signatures and the prevailing moving average structure offers a window into how sophisticated investors are balancing exposure to current valuations against future uncertainty, though such patterns do not guarantee immediate continuation of any specific trend. Ultimately, the technical configuration reflects a dynamic equilibrium where institutional behavior is constantly being tested by market volatility and sector-specific fundamentals. The absence of clear breakout or breakdown signals in isolation suggests that larger entities may be adopting a wait-and-
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | $0.8200 | +10.1% |
| 2025-08-01 | $0.7450 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-01 | $0.7450 | +10.4% |
| 2025-02-03 | $0.6750 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-01 | $0.6750 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-01 | $0.6750 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-30 | $0.6750 | +9.8% |
| 2024-01-31 | $0.6150 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-31 | $0.6150 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-31 | $0.6150 | 0.0% |
| 2023-04-28 | $0.6150 | +9.8% |
| 2023-01-31 | $0.5600 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like KIE or XLF, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AON shares regardless of Aon plc's individual fundamentals. We estimate $6.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to AON through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Aon plc to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Aon plc (AON) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with AON. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 18 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AON Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 10 AON shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Aon plc (AON) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.8% of the KIE (KIE) and 0.9% of the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF). Across 18 tracked ETFs, approximately 21M shares (9.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest AON Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 18 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AON Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Aon plc over the past year sits near $351.85 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $317.86 sits 9.7% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
AON Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Aon plc convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Aon plc converts 49% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 51% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 7.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 835 | $308.27 | $257,405.45 |
| 2026-04-27 | 36,256 | $321.14 | $11.6M |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $323.02 | $969.06 |
| 2026-04-14 | 70 | $325.40 | $22,778 |
| 2026-04-13 | 396 | $312.57 | $123,777.72 |
| 2026-04-07 | 17,642 | $326.17 | $5.8M |
| 2026-04-06 | 50 | $323.14 | $16,157 |
| 2026-03-30 | 279 | $313.66 | $87,511.14 |
| 2026-03-26 | 148 | $321.45 | $47,574.6 |
| 2026-03-25 | 106 | $327.03 | $34,665.18 |
| 2026-03-23 | 10,000 | $325.63 | $3.3M |
| 2026-03-20 | 22,435 | $316.99 | $7.1M |
| 2026-03-13 | 2,215 | $315.91 | $699,740.65 |
| 2026-02-19 | 27 | $322.98 | $8,720.46 |
| 2026-02-09 | 967 | $342.04 | $330,752.68 |
| 2026-01-20 | 39 | $343.86 | $13,410.54 |
| 2026-01-15 | 87 | $346.00 | $30,102 |
| 2026-01-05 | 62 | $344.27 | $21,344.74 |
| 2025-12-11 | 100 | $340.05 | $34,005 |
| 2025-12-05 | 2,199 | $347.71 | $764,614.29 |
| 2025-12-01 | 20 | $353.92 | $7,078.4 |
| 2025-11-25 | 2,771 | $344.70 | $955,163.7 |
| 2025-11-05 | 742 | $344.21 | $255,403.82 |
| 2025-11-04 | 33 | $339.84 | $11,214.72 |
| 2025-10-29 | 396 | $329.96 | $130,664.16 |
| 2025-10-24 | 1 | $341.35 | $341.35 |
| 2025-10-20 | 3 | $346.60 | $1,039.8 |
| 2025-10-15 | 6,474 | $360.51 | $2.3M |
| 2025-10-07 | 117 | $365.70 | $42,786.9 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MMC | 0.749 | 0.786 | High co-movement |
| MRSH | 0.743 | 0.795 | High co-movement |
| AJG | 0.709 | 0.713 | High co-movement |
| BRO | 0.658 | 0.699 | Moderate |
| ACGL | 0.574 | 0.562 | Moderate |
| HIG | 0.555 | 0.566 | Moderate |
| ERIE | 0.534 | 0.518 | Moderate |
| AFL | 0.530 | 0.517 | Moderate |
| TRV | 0.508 | 0.518 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AON to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.