Mastercard Incorporated (MA)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicMastercard Incorporated's P/E of 28.6 is above its sector average (19.2x), though accompanied by a 38.8% economic spread (ROIC − WACC). Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 9.8 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $321 implies 37% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedMastercard Incorporated exhibits exceptional fundamental quality, characterized by a robust 38.8% ROIC-WACC spread that signals highly efficient capital deployment well above the cost of equity. The DuPont decomposition reveals an extraordinary return on equity of 193.2%, driven primarily by industry-leading net margins of 45.6% and significant financial leverage, rather than asset intensity or operational turnover alone. This structural strength is corroborated by a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 9.8, indicating minimal distress risk and high accounting quality, while the negative Beneish M-Score further suggests earnings are unlikely to be manipulated despite aggressive margin expansion relative to sector peers.
Valuation metrics present a divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models derived from cash flow assumptions. Trading at a forward P/E of 29.9x versus an historical average and significantly elevated peer multiple of 18.4x, the stock commands a substantial premium for its growth trajectory. However, discounted cash flow analysis implies this valuation is not fully supported by fundamentals, as the current price sits 36.2% above the calculated fair value of $319 based on an assumed long-term free cash flow growth rate of 17.1%. This suggests the market has priced in exceptionally high future expansion that may exceed sustainable operational realities given the implied growth constraints inherent in such a steep valuation gap.
Risk-adjusted performance indicators highlight potential headwinds relative to traditional factor benchmarks, despite strong profitability signals. The annual Fama-French alpha of -22.73% indicates underperformance against risk-free assets and market factors over the measured period, potentially offsetting the positive contributions from its value tilt (HML: 0.327) and robust profitability characteristics (RMW: 0.284). Compounding these factor-based concerns is notable insider activity, with $4.5 million in net selling recorded over the last ninety days, which may reflect management's view of valuation levels or liquidity needs independent of fundamental deterioration.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 16% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.7% | 9.7% | 11.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $395 | $286 | $222 |
| 3% | $466 | $321 | $242 |
| 4% | $577 | $368 | $267 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $477.68.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $321 (-37.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 37% below its 5-year average P/E of 48.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedMastercard Incorporated is currently trading at $498.66, a price point that necessitates an immediate assessment against its surrounding Simple Moving Average envelope to determine relative valuation status. Without specific upper and lower band parameters provided in the input data, it is impossible to definitively characterize whether this level represents a significant premium or discount to recent historical norms; however, the precise placement within such a range would be critical for gauging mean-reversion potential. If the current price were hovering near the outer boundaries of a typical volatility channel, one might infer heightened pressure for a corrective move back toward the central trend line, whereas positioning well inside the envelope could suggest continued momentum or consolidation depending on the broader market context. In the absence of explicit deviation metrics or standard deviation bands, any conclusion regarding overbought or oversold conditions remains speculative based solely on this isolated figure. The technical narrative relies entirely on how $498.66 compares to dynamic averages not yet specified in the dataset. Observers should note that without knowing if this price is significantly detached from the mean or comfortably aligned with it, assessing the probability of a snap-back toward equilibrium requires additional quantitative context regarding recent volatility and trend strength. The current data point serves as a single coordinate; its strategic implication depends heavily on the unseen distance to the moving average bands which define the boundaries for potential reversal strategies in this financial services sector.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | $0.8700 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-09 | $0.8700 | +14.5% |
| 2025-10-09 | $0.7600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-09 | $0.7600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-09 | $0.7600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-10 | $0.7600 | +15.2% |
| 2024-10-09 | $0.6600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-09 | $0.6600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-08 | $0.6600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-08 | $0.6600 | +15.8% |
| 2023-10-05 | $0.5700 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-06 | $0.5700 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLF or IYJ, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MA shares regardless of Mastercard Incorporated's individual fundamentals. We estimate $48.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to MA through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Mastercard Incorporated to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Mastercard Incorporated (MA) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with MA. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
MA Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 MA shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 5.5% of the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) and 5.1% of the IYJ (IYJ). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 101M shares (11.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest MA Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
MA Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Mastercard Incorporated over the past year sits near $566.42 (9% of 252-day volume). The current price of $477.68 sits 15.7% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
MA Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Mastercard Incorporated convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Mastercard Incorporated converts 80% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 38.8% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 139 | $495.48 | $68,871.72 |
| 2026-05-06 | 626 | $497.08 | $311,172.08 |
| 2026-04-28 | 48 | $506.43 | $24,308.64 |
| 2026-04-22 | 1,130 | $511.35 | $577,825.5 |
| 2026-04-20 | 5,700 | $521.30 | $3.0M |
| 2026-04-16 | 5 | $519.96 | $2,599.8 |
| 2026-04-15 | 9 | $513.16 | $4,618.44 |
| 2026-04-14 | 342 | $508.58 | $173,934.36 |
| 2026-04-10 | 1,217 | $503.57 | $612,844.69 |
| 2026-04-07 | 544 | $501.50 | $272,816 |
| 2026-04-06 | 146 | $493.44 | $72,042.24 |
| 2026-04-01 | 4 | $499.66 | $1,998.64 |
| 2026-03-30 | 4 | $484.24 | $1,936.96 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2 | $500.75 | $1,001.5 |
| 2026-03-25 | 82 | $498.93 | $40,912.26 |
| 2026-03-23 | 6 | $496.32 | $2,977.92 |
| 2026-03-20 | 41 | $491.14 | $20,136.74 |
| 2026-03-05 | 1,725 | $522.92 | $902,037 |
| 2026-03-03 | 24,765 | $521.00 | $12.9M |
| 2026-03-02 | 70,350 | $517.21 | $36.4M |
| 2026-02-25 | 103,474 | $498.00 | $51.5M |
| 2026-02-19 | 22 | $527.98 | $11,615.56 |
| 2026-02-18 | 3,517 | $521.93 | $1.8M |
| 2026-02-17 | 76 | $518.36 | $39,395.36 |
| 2026-02-04 | 2,944 | $550.72 | $1.6M |
| 2026-02-02 | 2 | $538.79 | $1,077.58 |
| 2026-01-23 | 100 | $532.86 | $53,286 |
| 2026-01-20 | 25 | $539.49 | $13,487.25 |
| 2026-01-13 | 8 | $566.28 | $4,530.24 |
| 2026-01-12 | 200 | $575.54 | $115,108 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| V | 0.889 | 0.889 | High co-movement |
| MET | 0.563 | 0.586 | Moderate |
| AXP | 0.558 | 0.568 | Moderate |
| MMC | 0.532 | 0.496 | Moderate |
| HIG | 0.526 | 0.566 | Moderate |
| ADP | 0.509 | 0.497 | Moderate |
| COF | 0.508 | 0.567 | Moderate |
| L | 0.496 | 0.525 | Moderate |
| MCO | 0.496 | 0.367 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare MA to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.