Visa Inc. (V)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicVisa Inc.'s P/E of 28.5 is above its sector average (19.2x), though accompanied by a 20.7% economic spread (ROIC − WACC). Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 7.2. DCF fair value of $204 implies 34% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedVisa Inc. demonstrates exceptional fundamental quality, characterized by a robust ROIC-WACC spread of +20.8% that signals highly efficient capital deployment well above the cost of equity. The DuPont decomposition reveals an ROE of 52.9%, driven primarily by expansive net margins at 50.1% rather than leverage or asset turnover, while gross margins remain elevated at 80.4%. This operational resilience is corroborated by strong integrity metrics: a Beneish M-Score of -2.62 indicates low earnings manipulation risk, and an Altman Z-Score of 7.3 suggests minimal distress probability. A Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 further confirms financial strength through positive operating cash flow trends, though it falls short of the maximum score due to specific balance sheet or profit metric fluctuations not detailed here.
Despite these operational strengths, valuation metrics suggest the market has priced in significant growth expectations that may exceed current fundamentals. The stock trades at a P/E multiple of 28.2x, substantially higher than the sector average of 18.4x and implying a long-term free cash flow compound rate of 10.3%. However, discounted cash flow analysis indicates a fair value of $205, which represents a -32.2% downside from current levels, suggesting the premium valuation may not be fully supported by projected cash flows under standard assumptions. This divergence implies that recent price appreciation has likely incorporated optimistic growth scenarios that future performance must validate to sustain multiples.
Risk factor analysis introduces complexity to the risk-reward profile despite underlying profitability factors showing a positive RMW tilt of 0.133. The Fama-French alpha over the annual period stands at -23.87%, indicating underperformance relative to size and value benchmarks, while the HML score of 0.197 confirms a distinct growth-oriented positioning rather than a value tilt. Compounding these statistical headwinds is notable insider selling activity totaling $3.86 million over the past ninety days. While the company maintains superior profitability characteristics compared to peers, the combination of elevated valuation premiums, negative alpha performance, and active insider disposition warrants careful scrutiny regarding future trajectory versus current pricing levels.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 11% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.6% | 9.6% | 11.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $249 | $182 | $143 |
| 3% | $294 | $204 | $155 |
| 4% | $364 | $233 | $170 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $317.32.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $204 (-34.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 7% below its 5-year average P/E of 30.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedVisa (V) is trading below both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, indicating a downward trend with bearish momentum as reflected by the RSI reading in oversold territory but not yet at extreme levels.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | $0.6700 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-10 | $0.6700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-12 | $0.6700 | +13.6% |
| 2025-08-12 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-13 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-11 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-12 | $0.5900 | +13.5% |
| 2024-08-09 | $0.5200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-16 | $0.5200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-08 | $0.5200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-08 | $0.5200 | +15.6% |
| 2023-08-10 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Smart Money Flow
Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares Change | % Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | -511,325 | -95.3% | Decreased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | +454,999 | +205.2% | Increased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | +355,368 | +2485.1% | Increased |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | +355,004 | +26.3% | Increased |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | -439,003 | -46.8% | Decreased |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | +15,500 | +106.9% | Increased |
| Berkshire Hathaway | 2026-Q1 | -8,297,460 | -100.0% | Exited |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | +119,800 | +8.3% | Increased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | -522,900 | -26.6% | Decreased |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | +879,121 | +187.3% | Increased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | -139,457 | -20.6% | Decreased |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | +2,700 | +22.9% | Increased |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLF or IYJ, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell V shares regardless of Visa Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $67.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to V through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Visa Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Visa Inc. (V) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (GS) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with V. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 33 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
V Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 V shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Visa Inc. (V) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 7.5% of the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) and 7.0% of the IYJ (IYJ). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 211M shares (12.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest V Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
V Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Visa Inc. over the past year sits near $347.51 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $317.32 sits 8.7% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
V Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Visa Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Visa Inc. converts 83% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 20.7% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 7,536 | $320.31 | $2.4M |
| 2026-05-13 | 57,333 | $326.42 | $18.7M |
| 2026-05-11 | 60 | $318.79 | $19,127.4 |
| 2026-05-04 | 2,659 | $328.03 | $872,231.77 |
| 2026-05-01 | 9,745 | $329.84 | $3.2M |
| 2026-04-30 | 48,404 | $334.86 | $16.2M |
| 2026-04-28 | 9,281 | $309.65 | $2.9M |
| 2026-04-24 | 2 | $308.88 | $617.76 |
| 2026-04-23 | 791 | $311.29 | $246,230.39 |
| 2026-04-20 | 3,943 | $317.02 | $1.3M |
| 2026-04-15 | 15 | $311.37 | $4,670.55 |
| 2026-03-27 | 48,585 | $305.53 | $14.8M |
| 2026-03-26 | 15 | $304.91 | $4,573.65 |
| 2026-03-25 | 168 | $303.76 | $51,031.68 |
| 2026-03-24 | 96 | $304.44 | $29,226.24 |
| 2026-03-20 | 81,169 | $299.71 | $24.3M |
| 2026-03-19 | 500 | $299.02 | $149,510 |
| 2026-03-17 | 268,651 | $310.11 | $83.3M |
| 2026-03-16 | 4,126 | $307.14 | $1.3M |
| 2026-03-13 | 109,873 | $306.50 | $33.7M |
| 2026-03-12 | 3,201 | $308.96 | $988,980.96 |
| 2026-03-04 | 2,100 | $320.83 | $673,743 |
| 2026-03-03 | 108 | $320.51 | $34,615.08 |
| 2026-03-02 | 1,100 | $320.14 | $352,154 |
| 2026-02-26 | 22 | $312.99 | $6,885.78 |
| 2026-02-25 | 39,882 | $307.22 | $12.3M |
| 2026-02-18 | 490 | $319.50 | $156,555 |
| 2026-02-12 | 1,890 | $329.24 | $622,263.6 |
| 2026-02-05 | 30,550 | $329.95 | $10.1M |
| 2026-01-27 | 1,099 | $328.49 | $361,010.51 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)
Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | 1,703,497 | $514,864,933K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | 1,564,900 | $472,975,376K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | 676,767 | $204,545,022K |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | 499,797 | $151,069,200K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | 369,668 | $111,728,456K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | 30,000 | $9,067,200K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | 25,172 | $7,607,985K |
| Berkshire Hathaway | 2025-Q4 | 8,297,460 | $2,910,002,197K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | 1,445,100 | $506,811,021K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | 1,348,493 | $472,929,980K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | 938,800 | $329,246,548K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | 536,497 | $188,154,863K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | 221,768 | $77,777,390K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | 14,500 | $5,085,295K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | 14,300 | $5,015,153K |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MA | 0.889 | 0.889 | High co-movement |
| AXP | 0.541 | 0.546 | Moderate |
| MMC | 0.535 | 0.446 | Moderate |
| MET | 0.533 | 0.546 | Moderate |
| HIG | 0.528 | 0.562 | Moderate |
| ADP | 0.498 | 0.441 | Moderate |
| L | 0.494 | 0.530 | Moderate |
| MRSH | 0.485 | 0.475 | Moderate |
| MCO | 0.483 | 0.352 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare V to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.