Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 3.9x earnings — a 88% discount to the sector average of 32.1x — CHTR is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 0.6. DCF fair value of $186 implies 18% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency of Charter Communications presents a distinct divergence between return generation and cost of capital, with an ROIC-WACC spread narrowing to just 1.4%. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that equity returns are heavily leveraged via a multiplier of 7.52x rather than driven by operational intensity or margin expansion—evidenced by modest asset turnover at 0.36x—the firm maintains robust profitability metrics with a net margin of 9.1% and a high gross margin of 56.5%. Qualitative risk indicators suggest a fragile balance sheet, as the Altman Z-Score sits critically low at 0.6 despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a negative Beneish M-Score that indicates minimal earnings manipulation risks; however, this structural weakness contrasts sharply with recent revenue contraction of -0.6% year-over-year.
Valuation metrics highlight a significant decoupling from sector peers, where the current P/E ratio of 6.1x trades at less than one-fifth of the Communication Services average of 35.7x. This discount aligns with a DCF-derived fair value of $299, implying potential upside if market sentiment corrects to reflect long-term cash flow assumptions rather than current stagnation. The model assumes an implied free cash flow growth rate of -0.6% over the next decade, suggesting that the market is currently pricing in persistent revenue headwinds rather than anticipating a reacceleration of top-line expansion.
Factor analysis reveals mixed signals regarding future risk-adjusted returns, with the stock exhibiting substantial negative momentum as evidenced by an annual Fama-French Alpha of -58.38%. Despite this underperformance relative to the broader market and neutral exposure to value factors (HML: 0.080), the firm retains a robust profitability signal (RMW: 0.115). The absence of insider trading activity over the last ninety days further underscores the current equilibrium, leaving investors to weigh whether the deep valuation discount compensates for the combination of declining revenue growth and elevated financial leverage inherent in the DuPont structure.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -1% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 6% | 8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 3% | $186 | $186 | $0 |
| 4% | $560 | $560 | $0 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $140.27.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=6.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $186 (-17.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 27% below its 5-year average P/E of 8.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCharter Communications, Inc. is currently trading at $141.21 within the Communication Services sector, presenting a technical snapshot that requires careful examination of its risk profile relative to recent price action. The specific price point alone does not reveal whether current momentum stems from robust structural support or fragile positioning; rather, it serves as an anchor for assessing how volatility might interact with potential drawdown scenarios in this high-beta environment. Without explicit data on moving averages, volume profiles, or breadth indicators, the resilience of this level remains ambiguous, suggesting that any upward movement could be susceptible to sharp corrections if underlying fundamentals fail to sustain the current valuation. The interplay between price and risk dynamics here indicates a need for heightened vigilance regarding potential downside exposure. In sectors characterized by rapid technological shifts and regulatory scrutiny like Communication Services, maintaining stability often depends on consistent cash flows rather than speculative gains alone. The absence of confirming technical signals means that the current trajectory lacks definitive proof of durability against market stressors. Consequently, while the stock sits at a defined price level, the broader risk dynamics suggest that momentum could easily shift from constructive to destructive if external pressures mount or if internal growth metrics do not align with investor expectations.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLC or VOX, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CHTR shares regardless of Charter Communications, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to CHTR through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Charter Communications, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Facebook Inc. Class A (META) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CHTR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 24 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CHTR Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 CHTR shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.8% of the State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLC) and 0.8% of the VOX (VOX). Across 26 tracked ETFs, approximately 20M shares (14.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CHTR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 26 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CHTR Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Charter Communications, Inc. over the past year sits near $215.19 (16% of 252-day volume). The current price of $140.27 sits 34.8% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (16% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CHTR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Charter Communications, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Charter Communications, Inc. converts 21% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 79% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 1.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 2 | $143.06 | $286.12 |
| 2026-05-13 | 3,617 | $147.92 | $535,026.64 |
| 2026-05-12 | 1 | $147.79 | $147.79 |
| 2026-05-06 | 3 | $158.23 | $474.69 |
| 2026-05-05 | 6,952 | $165.34 | $1.1M |
| 2026-05-04 | 29,187 | $171.74 | $5.0M |
| 2026-05-01 | 27,422 | $165.17 | $4.5M |
| 2026-04-29 | 59,025 | $173.11 | $10.2M |
| 2026-04-23 | 1,057 | $242.49 | $256,311.93 |
| 2026-04-22 | 19 | $241.95 | $4,597.05 |
| 2026-04-21 | 1,438 | $244.69 | $351,864.22 |
| 2026-04-20 | 37 | $236.62 | $8,754.94 |
| 2026-04-17 | 38 | $235.97 | $8,966.86 |
| 2026-04-15 | 154,854 | $215.57 | $33.4M |
| 2026-04-14 | 36 | $226.30 | $8,146.8 |
| 2026-04-08 | 3,038 | $223.80 | $679,904.4 |
| 2026-04-07 | 274 | $219.98 | $60,274.52 |
| 2026-04-06 | 3 | $219.79 | $659.37 |
| 2026-03-30 | 2,338 | $219.14 | $512,349.32 |
| 2026-03-26 | 45 | $218.91 | $9,850.95 |
| 2026-03-25 | 9 | $217.60 | $1,958.4 |
| 2026-03-24 | 142 | $216.61 | $30,758.62 |
| 2026-03-20 | 3,081 | $211.63 | $652,032.03 |
| 2026-03-10 | 68,875 | $222.81 | $15.3M |
| 2026-03-06 | 153 | $229.94 | $35,180.82 |
| 2026-03-05 | 153 | $232.00 | $35,496 |
| 2026-03-02 | 54,293 | $234.63 | $12.7M |
| 2026-02-23 | 22,895 | $230.16 | $5.3M |
| 2026-02-20 | 5 | $231.54 | $1,157.7 |
| 2026-02-19 | 5 | $239.14 | $1,195.7 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CMCSA | 0.624 | 0.599 | Moderate |
| PNFP | 0.397 | 0.236 | Moderate |
| FTV | 0.340 | 0.443 | Moderate |
| OZK | 0.338 | 0.309 | Moderate |
| XRAY | 0.335 | 0.442 | Moderate |
| TXT | 0.332 | 0.298 | Moderate |
| FULT | 0.322 | 0.328 | Moderate |
| AOS | 0.322 | 0.405 | Moderate |
| LUV | 0.321 | 0.322 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CHTR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.