Communication Services / Telecom Services

Comcast Corporation (CMCSA)

$24.85
-0.80%
$88.8B
Market Cap
4.9
P/E Ratio
0.69
Beta
5.31%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 8/9Altman Z 1.5 DistressBeneish M -2.73 CleanROIC−WACC +3.0%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

At 4.9x earnings — a 85% discount to the sector average of 32.1x — CMCSA is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 8/9) with Altman Z of 1.5. DCF fair value of $186 implies 565% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

Comcast Corporation exhibits a capital structure with distinct characteristics, generating an ROIC of 10.0% that exceeds its WACC of 7.1%, resulting in a positive spread of +2.9%. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the 20.5% return on equity is driven primarily by high net margins at 16.2% and significant leverage via an equity multiplier of 2.80x, rather than asset turnover which sits at modest levels of 0.45x. Financial integrity metrics present a mixed picture; while the Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicates strong fundamental quality, the Altman Z-Score of 1.5 and negative Beneish M-Score of -2.73 suggest potential distress or manipulation concerns that warrant scrutiny alongside the robust profitability factor (RMW) alpha of 0.299.

Valuation metrics display a stark divergence between current pricing and discounted cash flow models, with the stock trading at 5.2x earnings compared to a sector average of 27.3x. The DCF model implies substantial upside potential, valuing shares at $182 or approximately 532.5% above current levels based on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of -7.1%. This wide gap suggests the market may be pricing in persistent stagnation, reflected in zero revenue growth year-over-year and negative long-term growth assumptions within the valuation framework, despite the company's established value tilt evidenced by a positive HML factor of 0.141.

Risk assessments highlight conflicting signals regarding future performance and insider sentiment. Although the stock demonstrates robust profitability relative to its sector, it carries a significant drag on risk-adjusted returns with an annual Fama-French alpha of -19.47%. Furthermore, recent insider activity shows $2,280,934 in net selling over the last 90 days, which contrasts with the high-quality Piotroski score and creates ambiguity regarding management's outlook versus the mathematical undervaluation suggested by the DCF model.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive
Market Price
$24.85
Fair Value
$182
Implied Upside
+631.0%
$182IMPLIED FAIR VALUEUNDERVALUEDOVERUNDER
Growth Rate (Y1–5)12%
-10%20%50%
Discount Rate (WACC)7.0%
5%12.5%20%

5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.

Reverse DCFMarket-Implied
-7.5%annual FCF growth priced in at $24.85

The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -0% YoY revenue.

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →6%7%9%
2%$193$150$99
3%$256$186$115
4%$382$248$138

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $24.85.

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $186 (+564.6%). Not investment advice.

Valuation Context

4.9x
CMCSA P/E
32.1x
Sector Avg
6.8x
5Y Avg P/E
-85%
vs Sector

Currently trading 24% below its 5-year average P/E of 6.8x.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

Loading chart...
SMA 50 SMA 200

Technical Setup

AI Generated

Comcast Corporation is currently trading at $24.88, a price point that exists within the bounds of its established moving average envelope. When equity prices reside inside this band rather than testing extreme upper or lower boundaries, it often suggests a state of consolidation where volatility has contracted relative to recent historical ranges. This positioning implies that the asset is neither aggressively overextended nor deeply undervalued in terms of short-term momentum dynamics, creating an environment conducive to mean-reversion behaviors without clear directional bias. The proximity to the central trend lines indicates that immediate breakout or breakdown scenarios are less probable than continued oscillation within existing support and resistance levels defined by the envelope's width. Such a setup typically signals that market participants are waiting for additional catalysts before committing capital to significant new positions, leading to reduced intraday range expansion. Consequently, the technical structure reflects a balanced risk profile where price discovery is paused, allowing statistical probabilities to favor returns toward the moving average center rather than sustained deviations away from it.

RSI (14)
SMA 50
SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

8/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
1.5
Altman Z-Score
Distress Zone — below 1.8 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-2.73
Beneish M-Score
Below threshold — no statistical earnings quality concern per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

71.8%
Gross Margin
16.2%
Net Margin
10.0%
ROIC
7.0%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: +3.0%— Positive spread.
-0.0%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+23.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.2B
Free Cash Flow
25%
FCF Payout Ratio

✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

16.2%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.45x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
2.80x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
20.5%
Return on Equity
✅ ROE driven primarily by strong profit margins — a sign of pricing power.

Balance Sheet Health

1.80x
Debt / Equity
0.88x
Current Ratio
6.8x
Interest Coverage
1.8x
Net Debt / EBITDA
10.38%
FCF Yield
46.4B
EBITDA

Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)

Net Insider Flow
-$2M
Net Selling
0
Buy Transactions
3
Sale Transactions
2026-03-17KHOURY JENNIFERGrant$308,405
2026-03-05ARMSTRONG JASON SSold 2/8 qtrsSale$142,617
2026-03-05ARMSTRONG JASON SSold 2/8 qtrsGrant$2M
2026-02-27ROBERTS BRIAN LSold 1/8 qtrsOther45,578 shares
2026-02-27CAVANAGH MICHAEL J.Sold 2/8 qtrsOther34,980 shares

Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $0.99
Act: $1.09
+9.9%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $1.18
Act: $1.25
+5.9%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $1.10
Act: $1.12
+1.7%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $0.76
Act: $0.84
+10.8%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Dividend History

$0.3300
Latest Dividend
$1.22
2025 Total
+6.6%
YoY Growth
6 yrs
Consecutive Increases
Annual Dividends per Share
$0.39
2016
$0.44
2017
$0.86
2018
$0.59
2019
$0.84
2020
$0.92
2021
$0.99
2022
$1.07
2023
$1.14
2024
$1.22
2025
$0.66
2026
DateAmountChange
2026-04-01$0.33000.0%
2026-01-14$0.3300+6.7%
2025-10-01$0.30930.0%
2025-07-02$0.30930.0%
2025-04-02$0.3093+6.5%
2025-01-08$0.29050.0%
2024-10-02$0.29050.0%
2024-07-03$0.29050.0%
2024-04-02$0.2905+6.9%
2024-01-02$0.27180.0%
2023-10-03$0.27180.0%
2023-07-03$0.27180.0%
Stock Splits
2026-01-05: 1.067:12017-02-21: 2:12007-02-22: 1.5:11999-05-06: 2:11994-02-03: 1.5:11989-10-25: 1.5:11988-04-11: 1.5:11986-12-19: 1.5:11985-06-28: 1.5:11984-09-19: 1.5:1

Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.

Risk Profile

25.1%
Annual Volatility
-0.64
Sharpe (1Y)
-27.1%
Max Drawdown (5Y)

Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

Loading drawdown chart...

Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

Loading beta chart...
Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure

Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.

0.67
Market β
Mkt-RF
+0.177
Size (SMB)
Small-cap tilt
+0.141
Value (HML)
Value tilt
+0.299
Profit (RMW)
Robust
+0.896
Invest (CMA)
Conservative
Alpha (annual): -19.47%
R²: 33.3%of variance explained by 5 factors

Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.

Fundamentals

6.5
Forward P/E
142.98
PEG Ratio
1.01
Price/Book
33M
Avg Volume
$34.36
52W High
$24.13
52W Low
7%
52W Range Position

Smart Money Flow

Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.

FundQuarterShares Change% ChangeAction
Point72 Asset Mgmt2026-Q1+22,900+44.0%Increased
Soros Fund Management2026-Q1-59,051-80.4%Decreased
Citadel Advisors2026-Q1+512,900+18.3%Increased
Renaissance Technologies2026-Q1-5,772,200-88.0%Decreased
Bridgewater Associates2026-Q1-2,317,392-66.0%Decreased
Two Sigma Investments2026-Q1+12,600+100.0%New Position
DE Shaw2026-Q1+386,800+309.9%Increased
Millennium Management2026-Q1-3,634,400-80.9%Decreased
Citadel Advisors2025-Q4+1,747,100+165.2%Increased
Renaissance Technologies2025-Q4-403,800-5.8%Decreased
Bridgewater Associates2025-Q4-3,349,613-48.8%Decreased
Two Sigma Investments2025-Q4-6,556,098-100.0%Exited

Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$13.8B
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding CMCSA
0.21%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$6.4T
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like XLC or VOX, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CMCSA shares regardless of Comcast Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $13.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to CMCSA through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in Comcast Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

CMCSA Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
CMCSAEpicenterVTIETFVOOETFIVVETFMETALow RiskGOOGLLow RiskMETALow RiskGOOGLow RiskGOOGLLow Risk
CMCSA Price Drop (%)0

If Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Facebook Inc. Class A (META) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CMCSA. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

CMCSA Ownership Dynamics

Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 CMCSA shares, reducing daily market volatility.

Ticker
CMCSA
Total Shares
3.6B
ETF Lock-Up
15.2%
Display Mode
Total Float Impact
15.2%Locked Float

Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.6% of the State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLC) and 2.5% of the VOX (VOX). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 541M shares (15.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.

Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

CMCSA Institutional Volume Profile

252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.

TICKER
CMCSA
PRICE
$24.85
FLOOR (POC)
$25.04
STRENGTH
Medium
$24$25$25POC 10%$24.85$267%$26$26$27$278%$287%$286%$299%$298%$30$30$317%$317%$32$32$33$33
Focus Zone
Point of Control (POC) Support (below price) Resistance (above price) Current Price

The highest-volume price zone for Comcast Corporation over the past year sits near $25.04 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $24.85 sits 0.8% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.

Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.

CMCSA Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does Comcast Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$19.2B
EBITDA
$46.4B
FCF Conversion
41%
Reinvestment Rate
59%
41% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
10.0%
ROIC − WACC Spread
3.0%

Comcast Corporation converts 41% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 59% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 3.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-1420$24.94$498.8
2026-05-1180,366$25.40$2.0M
2026-05-0851,142$26.24$1.3M
2026-05-066,182$26.46$163,575.72
2026-05-01920$27.04$24,876.8
2026-04-28501,813$27.51$13.8M
2026-04-277,378$27.56$203,337.68
2026-04-2428,187$31.64$891,836.68
2026-04-1530$28.14$844.2
2026-04-1421$28.05$589.05
2026-04-09525$27.96$14,679
2026-04-0860,751$27.79$1.7M
2026-04-0756,069$27.66$1.6M
2026-04-016,253$28.71$179,523.63
2026-03-27569,407$28.72$16.4M
2026-03-25222$29.22$6,486.84
2026-03-23167,702$29.02$4.9M
2026-03-202,270,007$28.98$65.8M
2026-03-1325,765$30.16$777,072.4
2026-03-1072$31.04$2,234.88
2026-03-0590$32.09$2,888.1
2026-03-04270$31.01$8,372.7
2026-03-0317$30.82$523.94
2026-03-02329$30.96$10,185.84
2026-02-23204,383$31.34$6.4M
2026-02-1925$31.60$790
2026-02-09100$31.37$3,137
2026-02-0522,121$30.50$674,690.5
2026-02-021,698$29.75$50,515.5
2026-01-272,473$29.43$72,780.39

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)

Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.

FundQuarterSharesValue ($K)
Citadel Advisors2026-Q13,317,600$95,248,296K
Bridgewater Associates2026-Q11,192,620$34,240,120K
Millennium Management2026-Q1858,900$24,659,019K
Renaissance Technologies2026-Q1788,376$22,634,275K
DE Shaw2026-Q1511,600$14,688,036K
Point72 Asset Mgmt2026-Q175,000$2,153,250K
Soros Fund Management2026-Q114,389$413,108K
Two Sigma Investments2026-Q112,600$361,746K
Renaissance Technologies2025-Q46,560,576$196,095,617K
Millennium Management2025-Q44,493,300$134,304,737K
Bridgewater Associates2025-Q43,510,012$104,914,259K
Citadel Advisors2025-Q42,804,700$83,832,483K
DE Shaw2025-Q4124,800$3,494,637K
Soros Fund Management2025-Q473,440$2,195,122K
Point72 Asset Mgmt2025-Q452,100$1,557,269K

Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.

Price Correlations

Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.

Peer252-Day (1Y)126-Day (6M)Direction
WTGXXNaNNaN
CHTR0.6240.599Moderate
FULT0.4110.344Moderate
MAS0.3910.354Moderate
VRTPX0.3820.223Moderate
PPG0.3760.351Moderate
APTV0.3740.293Moderate
PHM0.3720.353Moderate
NVR0.3720.368Moderate
BOKF0.3720.311Moderate

Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.

Compare CMCSA to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.