Ball Corporation (BALL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 15.9x earnings — a 54% discount to the sector average of 35.0x — BALL is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 2.5. DCF fair value of $4 implies 93% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedBall Corporation exhibits a capital allocation challenge where the return on invested capital of 8.1% falls short of the weighted average cost of capital at 9.4%, resulting in a negative spread that erodes intrinsic value over time despite an ROE of 16.8%. This profitability metric is primarily driven by financial leverage, evidenced by an equity multiplier of 3.60x, rather than operational efficiency or pricing power, as the asset turnover ratio sits at only 0.67x against a net margin of 6.9%. While the Beneish M-Score of -2.38 suggests low earnings manipulation risk and the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicates moderate financial strength, the Altman Z-Score of 2.5 signals potential distress territory that warrants caution regarding long-term solvency under stress scenarios.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between market pricing and fundamental DCF modeling. The current P/E ratio of 18.2x trades at roughly half the sector average of 42.1x, suggesting significant mean reversion potential or a persistent discount relative to peers. However, this apparent bargain is heavily discounted by a DCF fair value estimate of $5, which implies a massive -92.3% downside from current levels based on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 20.2%. This aggressive growth assumption appears inconsistent with the company's negative ROIC-WACC spread and low asset turnover, indicating that the market may be pricing in unrealistic expansion that the capital structure cannot support.
Risk-adjusted performance data reveals a complex picture where short-term alpha generation conflicts with long-term value creation factors. The stock has delivered an annual Fama-French Alpha of 15.56%, driven significantly by robust profitability (RMW factor at 0.408), yet it remains neutral on the value factor (HML at 0.031). This disconnect is compounded by recent insider activity showing $1,322,428 in net selling over the last ninety days, which often precedes downward revisions or reflects a lack of confidence from those with superior information regarding future cash flows and capital deployment efficiency.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 12% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.5% | 9.5% | 11.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $7 | $3 | $1 |
| 3% | $10 | $4 | $1 |
| 4% | $14 | $6 | $2 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $53.75.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $4 (-93.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 54% below its 5-year average P/E of 41.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedBall Corporation's current trading price of $55.20 sits within the context of its broader technical structure, offering a snapshot for assessing relative value against moving average envelopes. Without specific envelope boundaries provided in the immediate data, the position implies that the stock is currently navigating a phase where mean-reversion dynamics are contingent on how far this level deviates from recent short-term and long-term averages. If the price has recently pulled back toward the lower band of such an envelope after a prior expansion, it may suggest increased probability for a bounce driven by statistical convergence; conversely, if it is hovering near the upper boundary following an uptrend, potential resistance could emerge as the asset tests its historical moving average limits. In the consumer cyclical sector, where volatility often amplifies deviations from trend lines, the $55.20 mark serves as a critical reference point for evaluating whether the stock is overextended or undervalued relative to its own past performance. The absence of definitive envelope data prevents a precise calculation of z-scores or standard deviation distances, meaning any assessment of mean-reversion potential remains theoretical until those specific support and resistance thresholds are identified on the chart. Traders observing this level must weigh whether current momentum is sustaining the price above key moving averages or if corrective forces might soon pull it back toward the statistical center defined by these trend lines. Ultimately, the technical setup at $55.20 invites an analysis of how closely this price aligns with historical volatility bands to
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-02 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-01 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-02 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-02 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-03 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-02 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-03 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-03 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-29 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-30 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-31 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLB or VAW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell BALL shares regardless of Ball Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.3B of passive capital is structurally linked to BALL through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Ball Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Ball Corporation (BALL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde plc (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with BALL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 23 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
BALL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 BALL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Ball Corporation (BALL) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.9% of the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) and 1.0% of the VAW (VAW). Across 23 tracked ETFs, approximately 41M shares (15.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest BALL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 23 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
BALL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Ball Corporation over the past year sits near $48.64 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $53.75 trades 10.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
BALL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Ball Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Ball Corporation converts 38% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 62% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-1.4%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 612 | $56.45 | $34,547.4 |
| 2026-05-12 | 844 | $57.72 | $48,715.68 |
| 2026-05-08 | 39,987 | $58.41 | $2.3M |
| 2026-04-30 | 119 | $60.29 | $7,174.51 |
| 2026-04-24 | 293 | $63.12 | $18,494.16 |
| 2026-04-22 | 111 | $63.36 | $7,032.96 |
| 2026-04-21 | 157 | $64.03 | $10,052.71 |
| 2026-04-20 | 119 | $64.48 | $7,673.12 |
| 2026-04-14 | 153 | $63.60 | $9,730.8 |
| 2026-04-09 | 185 | $62.10 | $11,488.5 |
| 2026-03-25 | 27 | $59.12 | $1,596.24 |
| 2026-03-23 | 76,868 | $57.06 | $4.4M |
| 2026-03-20 | 389 | $58.99 | $22,947.11 |
| 2026-03-16 | 198 | $62.19 | $12,313.62 |
| 2026-03-13 | 289 | $61.69 | $17,828.41 |
| 2026-03-11 | 1 | $62.02 | $62.02 |
| 2026-03-06 | 4,348 | $63.22 | $274,880.56 |
| 2026-03-05 | 468 | $64.78 | $30,317.04 |
| 2026-03-03 | 168 | $66.42 | $11,158.56 |
| 2026-02-27 | 1,286 | $66.63 | $85,686.18 |
| 2026-02-26 | 4 | $66.03 | $264.12 |
| 2026-02-23 | 23,651 | $66.53 | $1.6M |
| 2026-02-11 | 75,722 | $67.76 | $5.1M |
| 2026-02-09 | 173 | $66.47 | $11,499.31 |
| 2026-02-06 | 1,028 | $66.19 | $68,043.32 |
| 2026-02-04 | 183 | $61.77 | $11,303.91 |
| 2026-01-30 | 1,037 | $56.57 | $58,663.09 |
| 2026-01-26 | 193 | $57.36 | $11,070.48 |
| 2026-01-23 | 125 | $56.29 | $7,036.25 |
| 2026-01-16 | 11,046 | $55.89 | $617,360.94 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ITW | 0.622 | 0.653 | Moderate |
| PPG | 0.566 | 0.570 | Moderate |
| AVY | 0.561 | 0.524 | Moderate |
| AMCR | 0.535 | 0.527 | Moderate |
| AOS | 0.534 | 0.552 | Moderate |
| IFF | 0.527 | 0.475 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.524 | 0.573 | Moderate |
| CSL | 0.503 | 0.532 | Moderate |
| DVA | 0.497 | 0.549 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare BALL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.