Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 17.9x earnings — a 49% discount to the sector average of 35.0x — AVY is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 3.5. DCF fair value of $60 implies 65% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Avery Dennison reveal a company generating significant capital efficiency, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of +4.2%, yet this quality is underpinned by high financial leverage rather than operational expansion. The DuPont decomposition highlights that the 30.7% ROE is driven almost entirely by an equity multiplier of 3.93x, while net margins remain modest at 7.8% and asset turnover sits near unity. While governance metrics appear sound with a Beneish M-Score of -2.54 indicating low earnings manipulation risk, the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggests moderate financial stability without recent deterioration or improvement signals.
Valuation analysis presents a stark divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at 19.5x forward earnings, the stock is priced significantly below its sector average of 42.1x, yet the DCF model implies substantial downside with fair value estimated at $62, representing -64% from current levels. This discrepancy suggests the market has already factored in a conservative long-term free cash flow growth rate of only 13.8%, despite the company's robust profitability factor (RMW) of 0.891 which typically commands a premium for high-quality earnings generators.
Risk assessment data points to potential headwinds, as insider activity over the last 90 days shows $20.2 million in net selling, while Fama-French alpha metrics indicate underperformance relative to style factors. The stock exhibits negative exposure to both the value factor (-0.136) and profitability tilt, suggesting it may be priced for mean reversion or further stagnation given its revenue growth of merely 1.1% year-over-year. Investors must weigh the attractive valuation discount against the combination of high leverage, weak top-line momentum, and recent insider distribution before forming a view on future capital appreciation potential.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 1% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.6% | 9.6% | 11.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $79 | $52 | $36 |
| 3% | $96 | $60 | $41 |
| 4% | $124 | $72 | $47 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $157.04.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $60 (-65.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 36% below its 5-year average P/E of 30.4x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAvery Dennison Corporation is currently trading at $156.21 within the Consumer Cyclical sector, presenting a snapshot of its immediate market positioning without explicit directional guidance regarding future price movements. While specific moving average data and Relative Strength Index values were not provided in the input parameters to confirm whether the current price sits above or below key trend lines or what short-term momentum indicators suggest, the observed price level establishes a baseline for analyzing potential technical strength relative to historical averages. In the absence of calculated oscillator readings or comparative mean levels, any assessment of bullish or bearish pressure remains theoretical rather than derived from concrete signals in this specific dataset. The available information allows only for an observation of the current valuation point rather than a definitive characterization of trend direction or momentum acceleration. Without knowing if $156.21 exceeds recent short-term moving averages like the 50-day or 200-day lines, it is impossible to determine if the asset is in a confirmed uptrend or potential correction phase based solely on this figure. Similarly, lacking RSI data precludes an evaluation of whether buying pressure has become excessive or if selling momentum is gaining traction in the immediate timeframe. Consequently, any interpretation of market sentiment must remain speculative until further technical metrics are incorporated to validate trend status and momentum dynamics.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | $0.9400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-03 | $0.9400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-03 | $0.9400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-04 | $0.9400 | +6.8% |
| 2025-03-05 | $0.8800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-04 | $0.8800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-04 | $0.8800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-05 | $0.8800 | +8.6% |
| 2024-03-05 | $0.8100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-05 | $0.8100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-05 | $0.8100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-06 | $0.8100 | +8.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLB or VAW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AVY shares regardless of Avery Dennison Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to AVY through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Avery Dennison Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde plc (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with AVY. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 27 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AVY Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 AVY shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.5% of the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) and 0.8% of the VAW (VAW). Across 27 tracked ETFs, approximately 10M shares (13.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest AVY Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 27 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AVY Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Avery Dennison Corporation over the past year sits near $172.25 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $157.04 sits 8.8% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
AVY Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Avery Dennison Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Avery Dennison Corporation converts 49% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 51% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 4.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 4,230 | $161.97 | $685,133.1 |
| 2026-04-29 | 709 | $166.49 | $118,041.41 |
| 2026-04-27 | 350 | $165.50 | $57,925 |
| 2026-04-17 | 612 | $166.27 | $101,757.24 |
| 2026-04-14 | 225 | $172.22 | $38,749.5 |
| 2026-04-13 | 3 | $171.16 | $513.48 |
| 2026-04-07 | 1,668 | $169.35 | $282,475.8 |
| 2026-03-25 | 8 | $165.92 | $1,327.36 |
| 2026-03-10 | 27 | $176.47 | $4,764.69 |
| 2026-03-03 | 446 | $194.97 | $86,956.62 |
| 2026-03-02 | 648 | $196.35 | $127,234.8 |
| 2026-02-27 | 6 | $192.94 | $1,157.64 |
| 2026-02-12 | 2,428 | $192.78 | $468,069.84 |
| 2026-02-09 | 279 | $191.51 | $53,431.29 |
| 2026-02-06 | 20,155 | $192.88 | $3.9M |
| 2026-02-05 | 19,968 | $193.13 | $3.9M |
| 2026-02-04 | 62,212 | $186.82 | $11.6M |
| 2026-01-30 | 2,743 | $185.38 | $508,497.34 |
| 2026-01-20 | 1 | $188.65 | $188.65 |
| 2025-12-08 | 108 | $179.33 | $19,367.64 |
| 2025-11-17 | 827 | $172.91 | $142,996.57 |
| 2025-11-13 | 53 | $174.01 | $9,222.53 |
| 2025-11-07 | 55 | $171.95 | $9,457.25 |
| 2025-11-06 | 30,097 | $174.52 | $5.3M |
| 2025-10-22 | 4,687 | $163.53 | $766,465.11 |
| 2025-10-21 | 5,101 | $160.25 | $817,435.25 |
| 2025-10-14 | 2,460 | $157.49 | $387,425.4 |
| 2025-10-02 | 1,097 | $162.49 | $178,251.53 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ITW | 0.647 | 0.551 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.636 | 0.523 | Moderate |
| PPG | 0.619 | 0.522 | Moderate |
| LOW | 0.612 | 0.551 | Moderate |
| PKG | 0.600 | 0.551 | Moderate |
| HD | 0.596 | 0.550 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.594 | 0.489 | Moderate |
| MMM | 0.565 | 0.490 | Moderate |
| BALL | 0.561 | 0.524 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AVY to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.