Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicPKG trades at 26.6x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 35.0x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 3.7. DCF fair value of $133 implies 37% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Packaging Corporation of America present a mixed picture where strong operational leverage masks capital efficiency concerns. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that equity returns are driven primarily by financial leverage (2.33x multiplier) and decent margins rather than asset turnover, the negative ROIC-WACC spread of -0.3% indicates the firm is currently destroying value relative to its cost of capital. This inefficiency coincides with a modest Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, suggesting limited financial strength improvements over recent quarters. However, the Altman Z-Score of 3.9 and negative Beneish M-Score of -2.60 provide some comfort regarding bankruptcy risk and earnings manipulation, respectively, implying that while profitability is robust with an 8.6% net margin, capital allocation discipline remains a primary constraint on long-term compounding potential.
Valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in significantly higher growth expectations than current fundamentals support. The stock trades at a P/E of 23.8x, which stands in stark contrast to its sector average of 42.1x, yet this discount appears disconnected from intrinsic value calculations that imply a -36.5% downside from the DCF fair value of $135 based on an assumed 10-year free cash flow growth rate of 11.3%. This divergence highlights a potential mispricing where the market may be overestimating future expansion capabilities given the modest revenue growth trajectory, or conversely, that current multiples are suppressing returns due to lingering concerns about capital efficiency despite the lower-than-sector multiple.
Risk factor analysis further complicates the investment thesis through conflicting signals regarding style factors and insider activity. The stock exhibits a clear value tilt with an HML alpha of 0.193 and demonstrates robust profitability characteristics (RMW: 0.416), yet it suffers from negative momentum driven by a Fama-French annual alpha of -1.86%. Compounding these technical headwinds, insider flow data indicates $2,795,734 in net selling over the last 90 days, which often precedes or accompanies periods of diminished investor confidence despite the company's solid profitability metrics and low probability of financial distress.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 7% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.3% | 9.3% | 11.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $174 | $114 | $81 |
| 3% | $215 | $133 | $91 |
| 4% | $280 | $159 | $105 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $224.83.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $133 (-36.6%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 5% above its 5-year average P/E of 22.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedPackaging Corporation of America (PKG) is currently trading below its 50-day moving average but above the 200-day moving average, indicating a recent downturn in short-term momentum. The RSI reading at 36.9 suggests that the stock may be approaching oversold territory, which could imply potential for a rebound if positive catalysts arise.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-15 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-15 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-20 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-16 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-14 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-15 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-22 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-14 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLB or VAW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell PKG shares regardless of Packaging Corporation of America's individual fundamentals. We estimate $3.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to PKG through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Packaging Corporation of America to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde plc (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with PKG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
PKG Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 PKG shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.4% of the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) and 1.2% of the VAW (VAW). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 17M shares (19.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest PKG Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
PKG Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Packaging Corporation of America over the past year sits near $211.01 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $224.83 trades 6.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
PKG Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Packaging Corporation of America convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Packaging Corporation of America converts 41% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 59% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-0.3%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | 93 | $209.93 | $19,523.49 |
| 2026-04-09 | 33 | $211.05 | $6,964.65 |
| 2026-04-06 | 6,814 | $204.46 | $1.4M |
| 2026-03-26 | 2,869 | $213.36 | $612,129.84 |
| 2026-03-25 | 9 | $213.50 | $1,921.5 |
| 2026-03-24 | 11,063 | $209.06 | $2.3M |
| 2026-03-23 | 54,854 | $202.73 | $11.1M |
| 2026-03-20 | 106 | $204.39 | $21,665.34 |
| 2026-03-19 | 1,446 | $209.42 | $302,821.32 |
| 2026-03-12 | 14,051 | $222.58 | $3.1M |
| 2026-03-11 | 10,578 | $221.32 | $2.3M |
| 2026-03-06 | 2,908 | $226.22 | $657,847.76 |
| 2026-03-02 | 447 | $232.14 | $103,766.58 |
| 2026-02-17 | 1,055 | $246.31 | $259,857.05 |
| 2026-02-06 | 7,738 | $231.91 | $1.8M |
| 2026-02-03 | 67 | $223.72 | $14,989.24 |
| 2026-02-02 | 181 | $222.55 | $40,281.55 |
| 2026-01-28 | 505 | $223.62 | $112,928.1 |
| 2025-12-02 | 6 | $203.24 | $1,219.44 |
| 2025-11-05 | 9,259 | $197.16 | $1.8M |
| 2025-10-23 | 7,290 | $208.74 | $1.5M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| SW | 0.715 | 0.724 | High co-movement |
| IP | 0.700 | 0.689 | High co-movement |
| ITW | 0.635 | 0.627 | Moderate |
| AVY | 0.600 | 0.551 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.595 | 0.625 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.587 | 0.598 | Moderate |
| NDSN | 0.586 | 0.536 | Moderate |
| CSL | 0.561 | 0.589 | Moderate |
| OC | 0.560 | 0.544 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare PKG to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.