Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 20.7x earnings — a 56% discount to the sector average of 47.4x — FRT is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 1.2. DCF fair value of $118 suggests 8% upside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Federal Realty Investment Trust present a distinct capital efficiency challenge, characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of -3.1%, indicating that current returns on invested capital fail to cover the cost of financing. Despite this negative spread, earnings quality appears robust with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and a Beneish M-Score of -2.50 suggesting low manipulation risk; however, solvency metrics are concerning given an Altman Z-Score of 1.2, which flags potential distress in the leverage-heavy structure where equity multipliers reach 2.61x. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the reported ROE of 11.7% is driven almost entirely by high net margins at 32.1%, while asset turnover remains low at just 0.14x, highlighting a reliance on profitability rather than operational velocity to generate returns in this capital-intensive sector.
Valuation dynamics show a significant divergence between the stock's current multiple and its intrinsic value estimates, with the P/E ratio of 23.3x standing well below the sector average of 84.5x yet implying limited upside relative to discounted cash flow models. The DCF analysis suggests a fair value of $117, translating to only a 10% premium over current levels based on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 13.7%. This modest implied appreciation contrasts sharply with the historical valuation context and sector norms, suggesting that while the market may be pricing in conservative leverage risks reflected in the low Altman score, it is not demanding a steep discount commensurate with the negative ROIC-WACC spread or the specific solvency constraints identified by credit risk models.
Risk-adjusted performance metrics further nuance the investment picture through factor exposure analysis. The stock exhibits a Fama-French alpha of -2.15% annually, indicating underperformance relative to standard market benchmarks over the measurement period. While the Profitability Factor (RMW) score of 0.470 signals robust underlying earnings generation consistent with the high net margins, the Value Factor (HML) sits at a neutral 0.043, offering no distinct advantage in value-based strategies. With insider flow remaining flat over the last ninety days and solvency metrics hovering near distress thresholds, the risk profile is defined by capital structure fragility rather than earnings opacity or aggressive management activity.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 6% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $167 | $95 | $57 |
| 3% | $223 | $118 | $69 |
| 4% | $323 | $151 | $85 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $119.32.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $118 (+8.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 13% above its 5-year average P/E of 20.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedFederal Realty Investment Trust is currently trading at $116.06 within the real estate sector, presenting a scenario where price action must be weighed against inherent industry cyclicality. The absence of explicit drawdown or volatility metrics in the provided data necessitates an assessment based on structural positioning rather than immediate momentum signals. In the context of commercial real estate, current valuations often reflect sensitivity to interest rate environments and occupancy trends, meaning any upward movement may lack a broad-based fundamental catalyst if broader market headwinds persist. Conversely, stability at this level could indicate resilience against sector-wide corrections, yet without volatility data confirming sustained trading ranges or sharp declines, the durability of this price point remains contingent on external macroeconomic factors rather than confirmed technical strength. The interplay between the current share price and historical performance patterns suggests that momentum is not inherently structural unless supported by corroborating volume profiles or broader index alignment, which are absent from the snapshot. Real estate equities frequently exhibit low beta characteristics relative to high-growth sectors, implying that significant deviations in price often require substantial shifts in fundamental underpinnings rather than speculative trading flows. Consequently, while $116.06 represents a specific market consensus value, interpreting this as either a robust support level or a fragile overextension requires additional data points regarding recent pullbacks and variance thresholds. The technical picture currently offers limited definitive insight into whether observed price behavior is driven by enduring value re-rating or transient liquidity conditions.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | $1.1300 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-02 | $1.1300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-01 | $1.1300 | +2.7% |
| 2025-07-01 | $1.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-01 | $1.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-02 | $1.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-01 | $1.1000 | +0.9% |
| 2024-06-21 | $1.0900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-12 | $1.0900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-29 | $1.0900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-21 | $1.0900 | +0.9% |
| 2023-06-21 | $1.0800 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like NOBL or SPYD, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell FRT shares regardless of Federal Realty Investment Trust's individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to FRT through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Federal Realty Investment Trust to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies WELLTOWER INC (WELL) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with FRT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 24 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
FRT Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 FRT shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.5% of the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and 1.4% of the SPYD (SPYD). Across 24 tracked ETFs, approximately 17M shares (20.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This high passive lock-up reduces the effective active float, which can amplify daily price volatility and momentum signals.
ETFs with Highest FRT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 24 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
FRT Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Federal Realty Investment Trust over the past year sits near $92.22 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $119.32 trades 29.4% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
FRT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Federal Realty Investment Trust convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Federal Realty Investment Trust converts 34% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 66% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.1%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | 115 | $111.50 | $12,822.5 |
| 2026-04-21 | 23 | $112.33 | $2,583.59 |
| 2026-04-15 | 186 | $110.21 | $20,499.06 |
| 2026-03-27 | 160 | $103.70 | $16,592 |
| 2026-03-25 | 8 | $103.12 | $824.96 |
| 2026-03-17 | 30 | $106.35 | $3,190.5 |
| 2026-03-12 | 1,348 | $107.00 | $144,236 |
| 2026-03-09 | 2 | $107.55 | $215.1 |
| 2026-03-05 | 62 | $110.20 | $6,832.4 |
| 2026-02-25 | 29,063 | $107.70 | $3.1M |
| 2026-02-24 | 39 | $109.13 | $4,256.07 |
| 2026-02-19 | 75 | $105.45 | $7,908.75 |
| 2026-01-29 | 771 | $99.82 | $76,961.22 |
| 2025-12-31 | 1 | $101.81 | $101.81 |
| 2025-12-22 | 100 | $101.37 | $10,137 |
| 2025-12-18 | 9 | $101.70 | $915.3 |
| 2025-12-17 | 883 | $100.12 | $88,405.96 |
| 2025-12-16 | 883 | $100.91 | $89,103.53 |
| 2025-12-15 | 780 | $99.58 | $77,672.4 |
| 2025-11-24 | 2,026 | $97.97 | $198,487.22 |
| 2025-11-21 | 2,181 | $96.26 | $209,943.06 |
| 2025-11-18 | 4 | $96.00 | $384 |
| 2025-11-12 | 7,587 | $99.06 | $751,568.22 |
| 2025-10-30 | 95 | $95.47 | $9,069.65 |
| 2025-10-17 | 154 | $98.03 | $15,096.62 |
| 2025-10-09 | 392 | $97.55 | $38,239.6 |
| 2025-10-08 | 392 | $97.60 | $38,259.2 |
| 2025-10-02 | 5,297 | $99.64 | $527,793.08 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| KIM | 0.816 | 0.740 | High co-movement |
| BRX | 0.816 | 0.773 | High co-movement |
| VRTPX | 0.785 | 0.705 | High co-movement |
| REG | 0.780 | 0.789 | High co-movement |
| SPG | 0.709 | 0.647 | High co-movement |
| EGP | 0.693 | 0.596 | Moderate |
| EQR | 0.661 | 0.573 | Moderate |
| UDR | 0.660 | 0.628 | Moderate |
| PLD | 0.655 | 0.555 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare FRT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.