Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 14.2x earnings — a 70% discount to the sector average of 47.4x — SPG is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 1.8. DCF fair value of $33 implies 84% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Simon Property Group reveal a capital structure heavily reliant on financial leverage, evidenced by an equity multiplier of 6.06x driving the DuPont ROE to 69.0%. While this high leverage amplifies returns, it is underpinned by exceptionally strong operating metrics, including net margins at 72.7% and gross margins near 82%, which allow for a robust return on invested capital of 13.8%. This generates a positive spread over the weighted average cost of capital of +3.4%, indicating value creation potential despite elevated risk; however, this profile is tempered by an Altman Z-Score of 1.5 signaling distress territory and a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 reflecting moderate financial stability rather than aggressive improvement.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between market pricing and intrinsic models, with the current P/E ratio at 13.3x significantly discounting against the sector average of 41.4x. This compression aligns with a Discounted Cash Flow fair value estimate that implies approximately -78.8% downside from current levels, suggesting the market is already pricing in substantial headwinds or lower growth trajectories than the model assumes. Despite an implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 12.8%, which supports robust profitability factors, the wide gap between trading price and DCF fair value indicates that equity holders are currently bearing disproportionate risk relative to the calculated intrinsic worth.
Risk-adjusted performance data offers a nuanced view through Fama-French factor exposures; the stock exhibits a positive annual alpha of 3.90%, driven by strong profitability factors (RMW: 0.585) and a distinct value tilt (HML: 0.189). These factors suggest the asset has historically outperformed when markets reward high-margin, undervalued equities, yet this momentum is currently counterbalanced by significant insider activity showing $2,008,800 in net selling over the last ninety days. The combination of a distressed Z-Score and active insider divestment alongside strong profitability metrics creates a complex risk-reward profile where fundamental quality coexists with heightened solvency concerns and management caution.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 7% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.9% | 10.9% | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $53 | $23 | $4 |
| 3% | $70 | $33 | $10 |
| 4% | $95 | $44 | $17 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $203.53.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $33 (-83.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 10% above its 5-year average P/E of 12.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedSimon Property Group (SPG) is trading below its 50-day moving average but above the 200-day moving average, indicating a potential short-term weakness amidst an overall stable longer-term trend. The RSI at 38.1 suggests that the stock may be in a neutral to slightly oversold condition on a near-term basis.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | $2.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-10 | $2.2000 | +2.3% |
| 2025-09-09 | $2.1500 | +2.4% |
| 2025-06-09 | $2.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-10 | $2.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-09 | $2.1000 | +2.4% |
| 2024-09-09 | $2.0500 | +2.5% |
| 2024-06-07 | $2.0000 | +2.6% |
| 2024-03-07 | $1.9500 | +2.6% |
| 2023-12-07 | $1.9000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-07 | $1.9000 | +2.7% |
| 2023-06-08 | $1.8500 | +2.8% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SCHH or XLRE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell SPG shares regardless of Simon Property Group, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $10.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to SPG through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Simon Property Group, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with SPG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 36 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
SPG Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 SPG shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.7% of the Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH) and 4.6% of the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE). Across 36 tracked ETFs, approximately 60M shares (18.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest SPG Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 36 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
SPG Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Simon Property Group, Inc. over the past year sits near $180.87 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $203.53 trades 12.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
SPG Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Simon Property Group, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Simon Property Group, Inc. converts 40% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 60% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 2.9% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 4 | $201.00 | $804 |
| 2026-05-06 | 30 | $202.31 | $6,069.3 |
| 2026-04-14 | 645 | $200.71 | $129,457.95 |
| 2026-04-07 | 26 | $190.23 | $4,945.98 |
| 2026-04-01 | 23 | $186.53 | $4,290.19 |
| 2026-03-25 | 666 | $178.27 | $118,727.82 |
| 2026-03-19 | 37 | $189.90 | $7,026.3 |
| 2026-03-18 | 335 | $190.53 | $63,827.55 |
| 2026-03-10 | 1,955 | $192.83 | $376,982.65 |
| 2026-02-23 | 1,981 | $201.70 | $399,567.7 |
| 2026-02-17 | 170 | $196.83 | $33,461.1 |
| 2026-02-09 | 6,863 | $199.60 | $1.4M |
| 2026-01-22 | 130 | $185.17 | $24,072.1 |
| 2026-01-05 | 3,884 | $183.97 | $714,539.48 |
| 2025-12-30 | 661 | $187.62 | $124,016.82 |
| 2025-12-23 | 2,143 | $186.66 | $400,012.38 |
| 2025-12-22 | 66 | $184.93 | $12,205.38 |
| 2025-12-10 | 2,425 | $181.05 | $439,046.25 |
| 2025-12-01 | 4 | $186.32 | $745.28 |
| 2025-11-21 | 10 | $180.07 | $1,800.7 |
| 2025-11-18 | 70 | $180.99 | $12,669.3 |
| 2025-11-07 | 166 | $180.74 | $30,002.84 |
| 2025-10-31 | 124 | $173.35 | $21,495.4 |
| 2025-10-29 | 56 | $176.77 | $9,899.12 |
| 2025-10-28 | 142 | $179.78 | $25,528.76 |
| 2025-10-21 | 539 | $178.47 | $96,195.33 |
| 2025-10-06 | 3 | $185.23 | $555.69 |
| 2025-10-01 | 11,124 | $187.67 | $2.1M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| VRTPX | 0.742 | 0.678 | High co-movement |
| FRT | 0.709 | 0.647 | High co-movement |
| BRX | 0.660 | 0.596 | Moderate |
| REG | 0.647 | 0.614 | Moderate |
| KIM | 0.623 | 0.557 | Moderate |
| EGP | 0.600 | 0.581 | Moderate |
| PLD | 0.581 | 0.531 | Moderate |
| ESS | 0.560 | 0.480 | Moderate |
| EQR | 0.559 | 0.429 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare SPG to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.