CoStar Group, Inc. (CSGP)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicCSGP trades at 460.0x earnings — a 871% premium to its sector average of 47.4x — without a dominant ROIC-WACC spread. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 5.0. DCF fair value of $2 implies 93% downside based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -2.07 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of CoStar Group reveal a severe disconnect between top-line expansion and capital efficiency, characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of -10.7% that signals value destruction despite robust 18.7% revenue growth. This low return profile is mathematically driven by razor-thin net margins at just 0.2%, which constrains the DuPont decomposition to a negligible 0.1% ROE, even as asset turnover and leverage provide minimal mechanical support. While qualitative screens like the Beneish M-Score of -2.07 suggest low earnings manipulation risk and an Altman Z-Score of 5.6 indicates solvency comfort, the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 reflects a mixed financial trajectory that fails to offset the core profitability weakness evidenced by negative alpha across both Value (-0.149) and Profitability (-0.100) factors over time.
Valuation metrics present an extreme divergence between historical norms, sector peers, and intrinsic value models. The current P/E ratio of 1997.5x stands in stark contrast to the sector average of 87.1x, implying that market pricing assumes a sustained future FCF growth rate of 50% over ten years—a premise not supported by the company's actual margin dynamics or capital returns. A DCF analysis incorporating these fundamentals assigns a fair value of $2, resulting in an implied downside of -93.8%, suggesting the current price level prices in perpetual hyper-growth that contradicts the observed 10-year profitability factor drag and negative Fama-French alpha of -23.75%.
Although insider activity over the last ninety days shows net buying totaling $3,480,554, this positive signal must be weighed against the structural headwinds presented by the negative ROIC spread and severe valuation compression relative to historical means. The data indicates a scenario where aggressive growth premiums are not commensurate with underlying capital efficiency or margin expansion, leaving significant room for mean reversion in multiples if market expectations fail to materialize at the implied 50% compound annual growth rate required to sustain current pricing levels.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 19% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.1% | 10.1% | 12.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $3 | $2 | $2 |
| 3% | $3 | $2 | $2 |
| 4% | $3 | $3 | $2 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $33.66.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $2 (-93.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current trading price of $33.20 for CoStar Group, Inc. sits within a specific technical context that warrants observation regarding its alignment with moving averages and momentum indicators. Without explicit data points confirming whether the asset is positioned above or below key short-term or long-term moving averages, any definitive statement on trend direction remains speculative based solely on the provided snapshot. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) serves as a critical gauge for short-term velocity, yet its specific reading is absent from the available information, preventing an assessment of whether momentum is currently accelerating toward overbought levels or decelerating into oversold territory. In the absence of comparative moving average data and precise RSI values, the technical picture presents itself as incomplete rather than confirming a clear bullish or bearish trajectory. The price level of $33.20 functions merely as an anchor point without surrounding trend lines to indicate sustained upward pressure or downward correction. Market participants must await further confirmation from updated charting tools that explicitly plot these relationships against historical performance to determine if the current valuation reflects a continuation of prior trends or a potential reversal phase. Ultimately, the synthesis of available data highlights a gap between raw price information and actionable trend analysis. While the sector classification as Real Estate provides context for macroeconomic influences, it does not substitute for specific oscillator readings required to evaluate immediate momentum. Observers should monitor subsequent market sessions where moving average crossovers or RSI threshold breaches might emerge, offering clearer signals regarding the asset
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLRE or IYR, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CSGP shares regardless of CoStar Group, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $3.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to CSGP through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in CoStar Group, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If CoStar Group, Inc. (CSGP) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CSGP. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 27 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CSGP Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 CSGP shares, reducing daily market volatility.
CoStar Group, Inc. (CSGP) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.5% of the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) and 1.4% of the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 90M shares (21.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This high passive lock-up reduces the effective active float, which can amplify daily price volatility and momentum signals.
ETFs with Highest CSGP Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CSGP Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for CoStar Group, Inc. over the past year sits near $33.01 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $33.66 trades 2.0% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CSGP Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does CoStar Group, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
CoStar Group, Inc. converts 21% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 79% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-10.7%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 1,288 | $31.97 | $41,177.36 |
| 2026-05-13 | 49,798 | $33.05 | $1.6M |
| 2026-05-08 | 53,143 | $34.98 | $1.9M |
| 2026-04-21 | 10 | $40.06 | $400.6 |
| 2026-04-20 | 651 | $39.72 | $25,857.72 |
| 2026-04-16 | 171 | $39.31 | $6,722.01 |
| 2026-04-15 | 6 | $37.60 | $225.6 |
| 2026-04-14 | 243 | $37.06 | $9,005.58 |
| 2026-04-10 | 2,690 | $37.32 | $100,390.8 |
| 2026-04-01 | 2,800 | $40.34 | $112,952 |
| 2026-03-31 | 1,919 | $40.88 | $78,448.72 |
| 2026-03-25 | 43 | $41.46 | $1,782.78 |
| 2026-03-24 | 491,248 | $42.91 | $21.1M |
| 2026-03-23 | 491,261 | $42.90 | $21.1M |
| 2026-03-20 | 493,442 | $42.82 | $21.1M |
| 2026-03-19 | 1,026,906 | $43.11 | $44.3M |
| 2026-03-10 | 62,113 | $48.42 | $3.0M |
| 2026-03-04 | 16,001 | $46.78 | $748,526.78 |
| 2026-03-03 | 2,413 | $45.17 | $108,995.21 |
| 2026-02-27 | 388,989 | $45.00 | $17.5M |
| 2026-02-20 | 162 | $49.07 | $7,949.34 |
| 2026-02-12 | 55 | $47.87 | $2,632.85 |
| 2026-02-11 | 1,232 | $50.85 | $62,647.2 |
| 2026-02-10 | 30 | $50.96 | $1,528.8 |
| 2026-02-06 | 23,073 | $50.99 | $1.2M |
| 2026-01-30 | 14 | $61.93 | $867.02 |
| 2026-01-22 | 6 | $64.77 | $388.62 |
| 2026-01-21 | 446,579 | $63.82 | $28.5M |
| 2026-01-07 | 2 | $67.20 | $134.4 |
| 2026-01-02 | 149 | $67.24 | $10,018.76 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| PYPL | 0.483 | 0.594 | Moderate |
| MCO | 0.471 | 0.536 | Moderate |
| CBRE | 0.468 | 0.471 | Moderate |
| NDAQ | 0.467 | 0.549 | Moderate |
| SPGI | 0.458 | 0.540 | Moderate |
| ACN | 0.450 | 0.550 | Moderate |
| GRMN | 0.447 | 0.396 | Moderate |
| JLL | 0.446 | 0.461 | Moderate |
| ADP | 0.443 | 0.539 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CSGP to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.