CSX Corporation (CSX)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 27.8x earnings — a 38% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — CSX is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 2.5.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of CSX reveal a capital allocation challenge despite strong profitability metrics. While the DuPont decomposition highlights an impressive 21.9% ROE driven primarily by high net margins and leverage rather than asset efficiency, this is offset by a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -1.9%, indicating that current returns fail to cover the cost of capital. Credit risk remains manageable with an Altman Z-Score of 2.4 and low earnings manipulation concerns per the Beneish M-Score of -2.62, yet operational momentum has stalled as revenue contracted by 3.1% year-over-year. The company's fundamental quality is further tempered by a mid-range Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, suggesting a lack of recent financial strength improvements despite robust profitability factors in risk models.
Valuation appears compressed relative to historical norms and sector peers, trading at a P/E multiple of 26.8x compared to the industrials average of 32.1x. However, this discount may not fully reflect the market's pricing of future growth expectations; the implied free cash flow growth rate over ten years stands at an aggressive 22.9%, which would necessitate significant earnings acceleration to justify current multiples if realized. The disconnect between modest revenue contraction and high margin expansion suggests a potential shift in business mix or cost dynamics that warrants scrutiny against these forward-looking assumptions inherent in the valuation model.
Risk-adjusted performance indicators present a nuanced picture, with Fama-French alpha data showing an annualized return of 19.47% alongside distinct tilts toward value and robust profitability factors. These positive factor exposures contrast sharply with recent insider activity, which recorded $6,448,103 in net selling over the last ninety days, potentially signaling management caution regarding near-term execution or valuation levels. Investors must weigh these strong long-factor premiums against the short-term insider outflow and the negative spread on capital efficiency to determine if current pricing offers adequate compensation for the identified risks.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 21% above its 5-year average P/E of 22.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCSX Corporation is currently trading at $46.20 within the Industrials sector, presenting a specific technical snapshot regarding its momentum and trend alignment. While precise moving average values are not provided in the immediate data set, the current price level serves as the primary reference point for assessing whether short-term trends remain intact or if potential divergence exists relative to longer-term averages. In the absence of explicit RSI readings, one must infer that without a specified overbought or oversold threshold being breached, the stock's immediate momentum remains neutral pending further data confirmation. The price action at this specific level suggests a state where neither aggressive upward acceleration nor sharp downward correction is definitively established by the available figures alone. Market participants observing this setup should note that the $46.20 valuation requires comparison against historical moving averages to determine if the asset is technically positioned above or below its trend lines, which would clarify whether bullish or bearish pressure is currently dominant. Without additional indicator data such as a confirmed RSI reading above 70 or below 30, it remains unclear if short-term momentum is gaining significant traction or losing steam. The current status indicates that the stock's trajectory depends on future price movements relative to these key technical benchmarks rather than displaying an extreme condition based solely on the provided point-in-time data. Ultimately, the synthesis of this information highlights a need for continued observation of how the price interacts with its moving averages and momentum oscillators before any definitive trend characterization can be made.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | $0.1400 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-27 | $0.1400 | +7.7% |
| 2025-11-28 | $0.1300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-29 | $0.1300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-30 | $0.1300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-28 | $0.1300 | +8.3% |
| 2024-11-29 | $0.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-30 | $0.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-31 | $0.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-28 | $0.1200 | +9.1% |
| 2023-11-29 | $0.1100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-30 | $0.1100 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XTN or XLI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CSX shares regardless of CSX Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $10.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to CSX through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in CSX Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If CSX Corporation (CSX) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with CSX. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CSX Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 CSX shares, reducing daily market volatility.
CSX Corporation (CSX) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.6% of the XTN (XTN) and 1.6% of the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 267M shares (14.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CSX Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CSX Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for CSX Corporation over the past year sits near $35.09 (18% of 252-day volume). The current price of $46.14 trades 31.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (18% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CSX Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does CSX Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
CSX Corporation converts 27% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 73% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-1.9%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 220 | $44.53 | $9,796.6 |
| 2026-05-07 | 730 | $45.60 | $33,288 |
| 2026-05-05 | 6,912 | $44.72 | $309,104.64 |
| 2026-05-01 | 6,716 | $45.43 | $305,107.88 |
| 2026-04-22 | 195,744 | $43.37 | $8.5M |
| 2026-04-20 | 200 | $43.32 | $8,664 |
| 2026-04-15 | 2,817 | $42.51 | $119,750.67 |
| 2026-04-10 | 35,000 | $42.49 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-07 | 7,474 | $41.48 | $310,021.52 |
| 2026-04-06 | 7,474 | $41.22 | $308,078.28 |
| 2026-03-27 | 103 | $39.55 | $4,073.65 |
| 2026-03-25 | 186 | $38.87 | $7,229.82 |
| 2026-03-24 | 33 | $38.94 | $1,285.02 |
| 2026-03-23 | 800 | $38.17 | $30,536 |
| 2026-03-17 | 13,183 | $39.78 | $524,419.74 |
| 2026-03-16 | 91,174 | $39.30 | $3.6M |
| 2026-03-13 | 36 | $39.22 | $1,411.92 |
| 2026-03-09 | 32,198 | $39.95 | $1.3M |
| 2026-03-06 | 2,535 | $41.15 | $104,315.25 |
| 2026-03-04 | 8 | $42.66 | $341.28 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2,900 | $42.22 | $122,438 |
| 2026-02-25 | 14,209 | $42.47 | $603,456.23 |
| 2026-02-24 | 15,263 | $41.97 | $640,588.11 |
| 2026-02-23 | 5,300 | $42.31 | $224,243 |
| 2026-02-17 | 97,000 | $40.87 | $4.0M |
| 2026-02-11 | 2,041 | $40.90 | $83,476.9 |
| 2026-02-03 | 449 | $38.39 | $17,237.11 |
| 2026-01-27 | 72,521 | $37.47 | $2.7M |
| 2026-01-20 | 70,240 | $36.25 | $2.5M |
| 2025-12-29 | 288 | $36.62 | $10,546.56 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| NSC | 0.683 | 0.638 | Moderate |
| UNP | 0.574 | 0.629 | Moderate |
| ODFL | 0.536 | 0.543 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.528 | 0.491 | Moderate |
| CFG | 0.516 | 0.516 | Moderate |
| BLK | 0.500 | 0.492 | Moderate |
| TFC | 0.498 | 0.542 | Moderate |
| AME | 0.495 | 0.519 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.490 | 0.492 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CSX to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.