Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 25.7x earnings — a 43% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — NSC is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 2.3. DCF fair value of $167 implies 44% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedNorfolk Southern's fundamental economics present a distinct divergence between operational profitability and capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that an ROE of 18.5% is driven primarily by exceptional net margins at 23.6%, this strength is counterbalanced by low asset turnover of 0.27x, indicating heavy reliance on equity leverage with a multiplier of 2.91x rather than efficient capital recycling. This structural trade-off results in an ROIC-WACC spread of -2.5% and an Altman Z-Score of 2.3, signaling that despite a robust Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and low manipulation risk indicated by a Beneish M-Score of -2.62, the company is currently destroying value on capital employed relative to its cost of funds.
Valuation metrics suggest the market prices in significantly higher growth expectations than current fundamentals support. Trading at a P/E of 22.6x versus a sector average of 32.1x implies a discount, yet this appears misaligned with the DCF fair value calculation which indicates -41.2% downside from current levels based on an implied ten-year FCF growth rate of only 18.6%. The disconnect between the modest revenue growth trajectory and the multiple suggests investors are pricing in future margin expansion or operational improvements that have not yet materialized, creating a scenario where historical valuation bands may be misleading without corresponding fundamental inflection points.
Risk-adjusted performance data highlights specific factor exposures within the equity risk premium framework. The stock exhibits strong alpha characteristics with an annual Fama-French Alpha of 12.37%, underpinned by significant tilts toward both value (HML: 0.298) and robust profitability (RMW: 0.402). However, the neutral insider flow over the last ninety days offers no corroborating signal regarding management's view on future capital allocation or strategic shifts. Consequently, while the stock demonstrates resilience through high margins and low fraud risk, the negative ROIC spread and substantial DCF downside warrant caution when assessing total return potential relative to its cost of capital.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 0% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.1% | 11.1% | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $211 | $147 | $106 |
| 3% | $249 | $167 | $119 |
| 4% | $300 | $193 | $134 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $307.55.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $167 (-43.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 6% above its 5-year average P/E of 21.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedNorfolk Southern (NSC) is trading below its 50-day moving average but above the 200-day moving average, suggesting a near-term downtrend within an overall sideways to slightly bullish trend. The RSI reading of 32.7 indicates that the stock's momentum is currently weak and in oversold territory, which could signal potential for a bounce back up if positive catalysts emerge.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | $1.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-06 | $1.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-07 | $1.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-01 | $1.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-02 | $1.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-07 | $1.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-01 | $1.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-02 | $1.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-02 | $1.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-01 | $1.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-02 | $1.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-03 | $1.3500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XTN or XLI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell NSC shares regardless of Norfolk Southern Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $7.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to NSC through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Norfolk Southern Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with NSC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 26 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
NSC Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 NSC shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.4% of the XTN (XTN) and 1.3% of the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI). Across 26 tracked ETFs, approximately 26M shares (11.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest NSC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 26 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
NSC Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Norfolk Southern Corporation over the past year sits near $275.65 (15% of 252-day volume). The current price of $307.55 trades 11.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (15% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
NSC Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Norfolk Southern Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Norfolk Southern Corporation converts 37% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 63% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.6%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | 23 | $302.63 | $6,960.49 |
| 2026-04-15 | 82 | $299.70 | $24,575.4 |
| 2026-04-08 | 25 | $288.50 | $7,212.5 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,791 | $288.00 | $515,808 |
| 2026-04-02 | 62,219 | $287.00 | $17.9M |
| 2026-03-27 | 60 | $283.28 | $16,996.8 |
| 2026-03-25 | 94 | $283.64 | $26,662.16 |
| 2026-03-13 | 14,756 | $291.26 | $4.3M |
| 2026-03-09 | 156,464 | $302.84 | $47.4M |
| 2026-03-04 | 3 | $317.26 | $951.78 |
| 2026-03-02 | 35,321 | $314.74 | $11.1M |
| 2026-02-25 | 142,977 | $316.09 | $45.2M |
| 2026-02-20 | 33 | $314.05 | $10,363.65 |
| 2026-02-19 | 97 | $316.76 | $30,725.72 |
| 2026-02-04 | 85 | $298.32 | $25,357.2 |
| 2026-01-29 | 117 | $284.47 | $33,282.99 |
| 2026-01-27 | 24 | $288.26 | $6,918.24 |
| 2026-01-23 | 10,912 | $289.08 | $3.2M |
| 2026-01-22 | 487 | $289.10 | $140,791.7 |
| 2026-01-14 | 1 | $288.20 | $288.2 |
| 2026-01-13 | 18 | $288.73 | $5,197.14 |
| 2026-01-12 | 28 | $287.21 | $8,041.88 |
| 2026-01-07 | 532 | $291.15 | $154,891.8 |
| 2025-12-30 | 210 | $292.05 | $61,330.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | 135 | $290.96 | $39,279.6 |
| 2025-12-26 | 100 | $292.71 | $29,271 |
| 2025-12-24 | 47 | $291.88 | $13,718.36 |
| 2025-12-23 | 1,042 | $291.60 | $303,847.2 |
| 2025-12-22 | 1,058 | $291.41 | $308,311.78 |
| 2025-12-18 | 7,570 | $294.43 | $2.2M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| UNP | 0.819 | 0.938 | High co-movement |
| CSX | 0.683 | 0.638 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.616 | 0.700 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.594 | 0.509 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.580 | 0.599 | Moderate |
| ODFL | 0.566 | 0.581 | Moderate |
| NDSN | 0.559 | 0.560 | Moderate |
| WAB | 0.536 | 0.549 | Moderate |
| FDX | 0.536 | 0.477 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare NSC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.