Ecolab Inc. (ECL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicECL trades at 34.6x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 36.7x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 4.9. DCF fair value of $136 implies 50% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Ecolab Inc. reflect a capital-efficient operator generating an ROIC-WACC spread of +1.5%, though this premium is modest relative to the sector's high-growth potential. The 21.2% DuPont-decomposed ROE is driven primarily by robust profitability and moderate leverage rather than asset efficiency, evidenced by a net margin expansion supported by strong gross margins yet constrained by sub-unity asset turnover of 0.65x. Financial integrity appears solid with an Altman Z-Score near the safe zone at 4.9 and a Beneish M-Score of -2.46 indicating low earnings manipulation risk, although the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggests only average financial strength without recent significant improvements in quality metrics.
Valuation analysis presents a divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models; while the current P/E of 36.4x trades at a discount to the sector average of 41.0x, it remains significantly elevated relative to implied fundamentals where DCF fair value suggests a -46.7% downside from current levels. This discrepancy implies the market is pricing in aggressive long-term free cash flow growth of approximately 21.5% annually over the next decade, a trajectory that may be optimistic given the company's modest revenue expansion of only 2.2% year-over-year. Consequently, the stock appears to carry a valuation premium that assumes sustained acceleration beyond current operational performance.
Risk-adjusted returns show mixed signals across factor tilts; while the firm demonstrates robust profitability with an RMW alpha of 0.171 and positive Fama-French alpha of 4.71% annually, these gains are offset by neutral value exposure (HML: 0.073). Further complicating the risk/reward profile is persistent insider activity, characterized by $10,978,999 in net selling over the past ninety days, which may signal management caution regarding near-term valuation levels or future growth execution despite the company's underlying cash generation capabilities.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.5% | 10.5% | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $169 | $121 | $92 |
| 3% | $197 | $136 | $101 |
| 4% | $239 | $156 | $112 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $256.26.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $136 (-50.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 17% below its 5-year average P/E of 45.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedEcolab Inc. is currently trading at $245.73 within the Basic Materials sector, presenting a scenario where price action must be weighed against potential risk dynamics rather than viewed in isolation. While the specific metrics for drawdown depth and volatility are not provided in the immediate data set, the positioning of the stock near this level invites an analysis of whether current momentum is supported by fundamental stability or merely short-term market sentiment. In sectors like Basic Materials, price levels often reflect broader macroeconomic pressures on industrial demand, meaning that any upward movement could be fragile if underpinned solely by cyclical optimism rather than sustained operational strength. The absence of explicit volatility figures necessitates a cautious interpretation of the current technical setup; without knowing the recent range or standard deviation, it is difficult to gauge how much cushion exists before significant corrections might occur. If the price at $245.73 represents an extension from lower lows, the structural integrity of this rally depends heavily on whether earnings fundamentals can justify such valuations during periods of economic uncertainty. Conversely, if this level coincides with a recent peak followed by consolidation, the risk profile may shift toward mean reversion unless new catalysts emerge to support further appreciation. Ultimately, the relationship between the current price point and underlying business performance remains the critical variable in assessing future trajectory. Market participants must evaluate whether the observed activity reflects a robust trend capable of weathering sector-specific headwinds or if it is susceptible to rapid erosion given external shocks
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | $0.7300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-16 | $0.7300 | +12.3% |
| 2025-09-16 | $0.6500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-17 | $0.6500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-18 | $0.6500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-17 | $0.6500 | +14.0% |
| 2024-09-17 | $0.5700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-18 | $0.5700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-18 | $0.5700 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-18 | $0.5700 | +7.5% |
| 2023-09-18 | $0.5300 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-16 | $0.5300 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IYM or VAW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ECL shares regardless of Ecolab Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $8.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to ECL through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Ecolab Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Ecolab Inc. (ECL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde PLC (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with ECL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 32 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ECL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 ECL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Ecolab Inc. (ECL) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 5.8% of the IYM (IYM) and 4.3% of the VAW (VAW). Across 32 tracked ETFs, approximately 33M shares (11.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest ECL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 32 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ECL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Ecolab Inc. over the past year sits near $264.64 (17% of 252-day volume). The current price of $256.26 sits 3.2% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (17% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ECL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Ecolab Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Ecolab Inc. converts 50% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 50% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 1.2% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 22 | $269.49 | $5,928.78 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $273.13 | $819.39 |
| 2026-03-30 | 154 | $261.37 | $40,250.98 |
| 2026-03-25 | 25 | $264.49 | $6,612.25 |
| 2026-02-19 | 25 | $302.59 | $7,564.75 |
| 2026-02-18 | 122 | $303.80 | $37,063.6 |
| 2026-02-13 | 49,751 | $300.69 | $15.0M |
| 2026-02-12 | 43 | $303.55 | $13,052.65 |
| 2026-02-10 | 23 | $288.16 | $6,627.68 |
| 2026-02-09 | 3,306 | $290.33 | $959,830.98 |
| 2026-02-02 | 12,106 | $281.99 | $3.4M |
| 2026-01-16 | 4,860 | $277.73 | $1.3M |
| 2026-01-09 | 41 | $271.74 | $11,141.34 |
| 2026-01-06 | 1 | $263.18 | $263.18 |
| 2025-12-31 | 7,767 | $264.48 | $2.1M |
| 2025-12-17 | 87,215 | $259.53 | $22.6M |
| 2025-12-16 | 24 | $261.11 | $6,266.64 |
| 2025-12-15 | 188 | $263.60 | $49,556.8 |
| 2025-12-05 | 115 | $264.42 | $30,408.3 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2,188 | $275.16 | $602,050.08 |
| 2025-11-28 | 1,130 | $274.99 | $310,738.7 |
| 2025-11-24 | 6,119 | $267.07 | $1.6M |
| 2025-11-20 | 160,238 | $261.50 | $41.9M |
| 2025-11-18 | 24 | $255.46 | $6,131.04 |
| 2025-11-13 | 484 | $261.06 | $126,353.04 |
| 2025-11-12 | 721 | $262.05 | $188,938.05 |
| 2025-11-03 | 6,282 | $256.40 | $1.6M |
| 2025-10-28 | 383 | $279.71 | $107,128.93 |
| 2025-10-21 | 116 | $280.17 | $32,499.72 |
| 2025-10-17 | 726 | $270.62 | $196,470.12 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| SHW | 0.593 | 0.543 | Moderate |
| PPG | 0.591 | 0.617 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.558 | 0.551 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.553 | 0.652 | Moderate |
| HD | 0.550 | 0.567 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.534 | 0.538 | Moderate |
| LOW | 0.532 | 0.530 | Moderate |
| MAR | 0.521 | 0.578 | Moderate |
| AOS | 0.503 | 0.522 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ECL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.