FedEx Corporation (FDX)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 22.0x earnings — a 51% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — FDX is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 2.8. DCF fair value of $60 implies 84% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics reveal a capital allocation challenge where the return on invested capital of 6.8% falls significantly short of the cost of equity at 11.1%, resulting in a negative spread that erodes long-term value creation despite a robust profitability factor score of 0.456. While DuPont decomposition shows earnings are driven primarily by high leverage (equity multiplier of 3.12x) rather than operational efficiency or margins, the balance sheet remains stable with an Altman Z-Score of 2.8 and no evidence of manipulation per the Beneish M-Score of -2.48. This structural weakness is reflected in a modest Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 and stagnant revenue growth of just 0.3% year-over-year, suggesting limited organic expansion capabilities to offset capital inefficiencies.
Valuation metrics indicate substantial compression relative to intrinsic models; the current price trades at 19.3x earnings while the discounted cash flow model implies a fair value that is approximately 82.7% below market levels. This severe discount appears disconnected from growth expectations, as the implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 19.8% vastly exceeds historical performance and likely represents an overly optimistic scenario priced into current multiples. The divergence between high Fama-French alpha (annualized 12.08%) driven by value and profitability factors versus a negative DCF upside suggests the market may be pricing in extreme downside risk or structural headwinds not fully captured by traditional growth assumptions, leaving significant uncertainty regarding whether the valuation gap reflects temporary distress or permanent impairment.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 0% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.2% | 11.2% | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $78 | $52 | $35 |
| 3% | $93 | $60 | $40 |
| 4% | $114 | $71 | $47 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $329.00.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $60 (-83.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 2% above its 5-year average P/E of 19.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedFedEx Corporation is currently trading at $374.97, presenting a specific snapshot within its broader technical landscape that invites analysis of mean-reversion dynamics relative to its moving average envelope. Without the explicit location of the price band or the standard deviation boundaries defined by recent Simple Moving Averages, the precise degree of overextension or compression remains undefined in this isolated data point. If historical context suggests the current level sits near an upper boundary of a volatility channel, it might imply increasing pressure for a pullback toward the mean; conversely, positioning at a lower limit could suggest potential upward drift as statistical norms are re-established. The absence of trend direction indicators means one cannot definitively assert whether this price represents a breakout from consolidation or a continuation of an existing trajectory without further data integration. In the context of relative value assessment, the significance of $374.97 hinges entirely on its proximity to key support and resistance lines generated by past performance metrics. Analysts observing such setups typically evaluate if the asset has deviated significantly enough from its historical average to warrant a statistical correction or if it remains comfortably within expected volatility ranges. The current figure alone does not confirm an imminent reversal, nor does it indicate sustained momentum away from established norms. Determining whether this price point offers attractive entry opportunities for contrarian strategies or signals caution for trend-followers requires correlating these levels with volume profiles and broader market sentiment regarding the Industrials sector. Ultimately, the technical narrative here is incomplete without knowing where
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | $1.1684 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-15 | $1.1684 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-08 | $1.1684 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-23 | $1.1684 | +5.1% |
| 2025-03-10 | $1.1120 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-09 | $1.1120 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-09 | $1.1120 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-24 | $1.1120 | +9.5% |
| 2024-03-08 | $1.0153 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-08 | $1.0153 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-08 | $1.0153 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-09 | $1.0153 | +9.6% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XTN or XLI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell FDX shares regardless of FedEx Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $10.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to FDX through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in FedEx Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If FedEx Corporation (FDX) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with FDX. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 35 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
FDX Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 FDX shares, reducing daily market volatility.
FedEx Corporation (FDX) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.4% of the XTN (XTN) and 1.6% of the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI). Across 35 tracked ETFs, approximately 28M shares (11.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest FDX Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 35 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
FDX Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for FedEx Corporation over the past year sits near $225.43 (23% of 252-day volume). The current price of $329.00 trades 45.9% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (23% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
FDX Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does FedEx Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
FedEx Corporation converts 28% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 72% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-4.3%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 25 | $376.42 | $9,410.5 |
| 2026-05-12 | 42 | $378.90 | $15,913.8 |
| 2026-05-08 | 16 | $375.93 | $6,014.88 |
| 2026-04-17 | 27,207 | $380.88 | $10.4M |
| 2026-04-14 | 31 | $371.89 | $11,528.59 |
| 2026-04-13 | 64,040 | $374.08 | $24.0M |
| 2026-04-10 | 1,024 | $377.00 | $386,048 |
| 2026-04-09 | 151 | $373.43 | $56,387.93 |
| 2026-04-08 | 79 | $357.00 | $28,203 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,800 | $361.63 | $650,934 |
| 2026-04-02 | 422 | $359.31 | $151,628.82 |
| 2026-04-01 | 279 | $356.18 | $99,374.22 |
| 2026-03-25 | 137 | $359.96 | $49,314.52 |
| 2026-03-24 | 14,060 | $355.78 | $5.0M |
| 2026-03-23 | 4,142 | $358.85 | $1.5M |
| 2026-03-20 | 504 | $356.11 | $179,479.44 |
| 2026-03-17 | 466 | $352.35 | $164,195.1 |
| 2026-03-16 | 743 | $351.68 | $261,298.24 |
| 2026-03-11 | 459 | $359.47 | $164,996.73 |
| 2026-03-10 | 200 | $361.10 | $72,220 |
| 2026-03-09 | 3,200 | $359.10 | $1.1M |
| 2026-02-26 | 34 | $382.59 | $13,008.06 |
| 2026-02-23 | 21,957 | $388.48 | $8.5M |
| 2026-02-20 | 20 | $383.14 | $7,662.8 |
| 2026-02-17 | 18,511 | $374.72 | $6.9M |
| 2026-02-13 | 1,443 | $369.46 | $533,130.78 |
| 2026-02-10 | 3,265 | $364.60 | $1.2M |
| 2026-02-09 | 2,043 | $369.23 | $754,336.89 |
| 2026-01-20 | 1 | $308.18 | $308.18 |
| 2026-01-09 | 5 | $309.01 | $1,545.05 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| UPS | 0.686 | 0.601 | Moderate |
| ODFL | 0.673 | 0.574 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.657 | 0.615 | Moderate |
| TFC | 0.618 | 0.606 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.605 | 0.560 | Moderate |
| CFG | 0.596 | 0.546 | Moderate |
| WTFC | 0.592 | 0.599 | Moderate |
| NDSN | 0.590 | 0.594 | Moderate |
| WBS | 0.588 | 0.521 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare FDX to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.