GBCI (GBCI)

$46.64
+0.63%
$6.2B
Market Cap
22.2
P/E Ratio
0.75
Beta
2.78%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 6/9Altman Z 0.2 Distress

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 0.2. DCF fair value of $56 suggests 15% upside based on model assumptions.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive
Market Price
$46.64
Fair Value
$57
Implied Upside
+21.5%
$57IMPLIED FAIR VALUEUNDERVALUEDOVERUNDER
Growth Rate (Y1–5)8%
-10%20%50%
Discount Rate (WACC)8.9%
5%12.5%20%

5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.

Reverse DCFMarket-Implied
2.3%annual FCF growth priced in at $46.64

The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 24% YoY revenue.

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →6.9%8.9%10.9%
2%$69$50$39
3%$83$56$43
4%$107$64$47

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $46.64.

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $56 (+14.8%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

Loading chart...
SMA 50 SMA 200

Technical Setup

AI Generated

At $47.92, GBCI is trading within a specific context relative to its moving average envelope, though the precise position of this price point against the upper or lower bands cannot be definitively established without the explicit band values in the provided dataset. In general technical analysis frameworks, when a stock trades near the outer boundaries of such an envelope, it often suggests that the asset has experienced significant momentum deviation from its recent mean, potentially creating conditions where statistical probability favors a return toward the central trend line. Conversely, if this price sits comfortably within the middle third of the range, the current valuation may reflect a state of equilibrium with limited immediate pressure for either a sharp correction or an aggressive breakout. The absence of specific band data prevents a definitive calculation of how far removed the current level is from statistical extremes, leaving the assessment of mean-reversion potential contingent on where this price aligns relative to those dynamic thresholds in real-time market conditions. Observers might note that proximity to envelope limits frequently precedes volatility shifts as traders adjust positions based on diverging expectations regarding future trajectory versus historical averages.

RSI (14)
SMA 50
SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

6/9
Piotroski F-Score
Average — mixed operational signals
0.2
Altman Z-Score
Distress Zone — below 1.8 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.

Profitability & Value Creation

23.8%
Net Margin
8.9%
WACC
+24.0%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+25.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
347.6M
Free Cash Flow
47%
FCF Payout Ratio

✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

23.8%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.03x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
7.59x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
5.7%
Return on Equity
⚠️ High equity multiplier — ROE is being amplified by leverage, not operational excellence.

Balance Sheet Health

6.59x
Debt / Equity
6.09%
FCF Yield

Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)

Net Insider Flow
+$8,995
Net Buying
1
Buy Transactions
0
Sale Transactions
2026-02-23SCRENAR RYAN THOMASBuy$8,995
2026-02-13COPHER RONALD JGrant12,446 shares
2026-02-13BOYLES DAVID CGrant1,463 shares
2026-02-13LANGEL CRAIG AGrant1,463 shares
2026-02-13MCBRIDE DOUGLAS JGrant1,463 shares

Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $0.46
Act: $0.48
+4.4%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $0.48
Act: $0.59
+21.5%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $0.61
Act: $0.62
+0.7%
Q1
✗ Miss
Est: $0.62
Act: $0.55
-11.4%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Dividend History

$0.3300
Latest Dividend
$1.32
2025 Total
0.0%
YoY Growth
Annual Dividends per Share
$0.72
2017
$1.01
2018
$1.41
2019
$1.38
2020
$1.42
2021
$1.42
2022
$1.32
2023
$1.32
2024
$1.32
2025
$0.33
2026
DateAmountChange
2026-04-07$0.33000.0%
2025-12-09$0.33000.0%
2025-10-07$0.33000.0%
2025-07-08$0.33000.0%
2025-04-08$0.33000.0%
2024-12-10$0.33000.0%
2024-10-08$0.33000.0%
2024-07-09$0.33000.0%
2024-04-08$0.33000.0%
2023-12-04$0.33000.0%
2023-10-06$0.33000.0%
2023-07-10$0.33000.0%
Stock Splits
2006-12-15: 1.5:12005-05-27: 1.25:12004-05-21: 1.25:12003-05-09: 1.1:12000-05-12: 1.1:11999-05-14: 1.1:11998-09-15: 1.1:11997-05-27: 1.5:11996-05-07: 1.1:11995-05-10: 1.1:1

Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.

Risk Profile

35.2%
Annual Volatility
0.57
Sharpe (1Y)
0.33
Sharpe (3Y)
-34.8%
Max Drawdown (3Y)
-53.5%
Max Drawdown (5Y)

Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

13.0
Forward P/E
1.75
PEG Ratio
1.46
Price/Book
924073
Avg Volume
$53.99
52W High
$39.90
52W Low
48%
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$504M
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding GBCI
0.10%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$493B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like KRE or KBE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell GBCI shares regardless of GBCI's individual fundamentals. We estimate $504M of passive capital is structurally linked to GBCI through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on GBCI's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in GBCI to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

GBCI Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
GBCIEpicenterVBETFVYMETFVXFETFPNFPHigh RiskEWBCHigh RiskUMBFHigh RiskFHNHigh RiskWBSHigh Risk
GBCI Price Drop (%)0

If GBCI (GBCI) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS (PNFP) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 4 ETFs with GBCI. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 12 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

GBCI Ownership Dynamics

Passive funds hold 1 in every 12 GBCI shares, reducing daily market volatility.

Ticker
GBCI
Total Shares
130M
ETF Lock-Up
8.5%
Display Mode
Total Float Impact
8.5%Locked Float

GBCI (GBCI) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.5% of the KRE (KRE) and 1.0% of the KBE (KBE). Across 12 tracked ETFs, approximately 11M shares (8.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.

Float lock-up computed from 12 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

GBCI Institutional Volume Profile

252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.

TICKER
GBCI
PRICE
$46.64
FLOOR (POC)
$45.43
STRENGTH
Medium
$39$40$41$42$427%$437%$446%$4510%$45POC 10%$466%$476%$46.64$4810%$489%$496%$50$51$51$52$53$54
Focus Zone
Point of Control (POC) Support (below price) Resistance (above price) Current Price

The highest-volume price zone for GBCI over the past year sits near $45.43 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $46.64 trades 2.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.

Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-13124$46.62$5,780.88
2026-05-11935$48.79$45,618.65
2026-05-07772$49.75$38,407
2026-04-2418$49.37$888.66
2026-04-1310,670$48.13$513,547.1
2026-04-0252$45.05$2,342.6
2026-03-2716,121$44.45$716,578.45
2026-03-23324$43.34$14,042.16
2026-03-20219$42.91$9,397.29
2026-03-1921,207$42.80$907,659.6
2026-03-1752,905$43.37$2.3M
2026-03-091,474$43.56$64,207.44
2026-02-2571$47.80$3,393.8
2026-02-2079$49.88$3,940.52
2026-02-19947$50.29$47,624.63
2026-02-175$51.29$256.45
2026-02-03139,890$50.71$7.1M
2026-02-0232$50.68$1,621.76
2026-01-16617$48.39$29,856.63
2026-01-144,478$45.99$205,943.22
2026-01-134,478$46.60$208,674.8
2026-01-1211,844$47.19$558,918.36
2026-01-05139$44.64$6,204.96
2025-12-30121$44.91$5,434.11
2025-12-262$45.79$91.58
2025-12-1672$44.48$3,202.56
2025-12-126,375$44.36$282,795
2025-12-111,254$44.18$55,401.72
2025-12-109,779$42.31$413,749.49
2025-12-0458$42.70$2,476.6

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Price Correlations

Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.

Peer252-Day (1Y)126-Day (6M)Direction
WTGXXNaNNaN
HWC0.8420.826High co-movement
FULT0.8410.835High co-movement
ONB0.8410.836High co-movement
AUB0.8330.810High co-movement
FNB0.8320.812High co-movement
UMBF0.8270.824High co-movement
ASB0.8250.810High co-movement
COLB0.8230.791High co-movement
SSB0.8230.782High co-movement

Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.

Compare GBCI to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.